collapse

Celebrated historian Sir Niall Ferguson calls it “Ferguson’s Law” – a rule of thumb under which “any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defence risks ceasing to be a great power”.

In a February paper for the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, where he is a senior fellow, Ferguson explained that in 2024, for the first time in nearly a century, the United States spent a bigger share of gross domestic product paying interest on its debt (3.1 per cent) than it did on defence (3 per cent).

Even commies like Dimon think its a worry /s

Many analysts believe a sovereign debt crisis is a matter of when, not if. About a month ago, JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said a crack in the bond market was “going to happen”.

Hamilton believes it is coming sooner rather than later. “At some point in the next 10 years, there is going to be a reckoning where the music stops and the markets say, ‘well, we’re not going to fund this any more’,” he says. “You cannot keep going along this pathway.”

Even if such a collapse doesn’t happen on its own, says Hamilton, the US debt burden leaves it in a precarious position to deal with a crisis, such as a future pandemic, war with China, or some sort of crisis arising from the advent of artificial intelligence technology

A glaring omission for me is climate change isn't even mentioned

From Somalia to mainland Europe, the past two years have seen some of the most ravaging droughts in recorded history, made worse by climate change, according to a UN-backed report.

Describing drought as a "silent killer" which "creeps in, drains resources, and devastates lives in slow motion" the report said it had exacerbated issues like poverty and ecosystem collapse.

This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I've ever seen," said co-author Dr Mark Svoboda, founding director of the US National Drought Mitigation Center.

I have been expecting such a move during his last term already. Not looking up is easier with blinders on.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/24202861

I've linked to the article in todays AFR but its paywalled. A few things struck me,

• the authors seeming incredulity that the only federal politcans who seem at all concrerned are The Greens.

• The second was a comment by one of the scientists that whike there are many 10s of thoisands of dead individual animals, many 100s of species will go extinct from this and this is directly related to climate chanhe

• The third, he points to the irony of the Australian Governments attempt to lobby to host the climate change COP in Adelaide, flying something like 20,000 delegates to the gab fest its becone at the bottom of the world and the enormous emissions from doing so.

What a world :) Literally plumes of superheated toxic "shitwater" coming from the ground.

I wonder why it's so hot /s

https://archive.md/qmqsm

Abstract

Climate change threatens global food systems1, but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown and controversial2. Even within the well-studied context of US agriculture, some analyses argue that adaptation will be widespread and climate damages small3,4, whereas others conclude that adaptation will be limited and losses severe5,6. Scenario-based analyses indicate that adaptation should have notable consequences on global agricultural productivity7,8,9, but there has been no systematic study of how extensively real-world producers actually adapt at the global scale. Here we empirically estimate the impact of global producer adaptations using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 regions, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 1014 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P < 0.001). We project that adaptation and income growth alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century (6% and 12%, respectively; moderate-emissions scenario), but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. In contrast to analyses of other outcomes that project the greatest damages to the global poor10,11, we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate.

Abstract

For decades, the surface of the polar Southern Ocean (south of 50°S) has been freshening—an expected response to a warming climate. This freshening enhanced upper-ocean stratification, reducing the upward transport of subsurface heat and possibly contributing to sea ice expansion. It also limited the formation of open-ocean polynyas. Using satellite observations, we reveal a marked increase in surface salinity across the circumpolar Southern Ocean since 2015. This shift has weakened upper-ocean stratification, coinciding with a dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice coverage. Additionally, rising salinity facilitated the reemergence of the Maud Rise polynya in the Weddell Sea, a phenomenon last observed in the mid-1970s. Crucially, we demonstrate that satellites can now monitor these changes in real time, providing essential evidence of the Southern Ocean’s potential transition toward persistently reduced sea ice coverage.

Pakistan is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change, and its 240 million residents are facing extreme weather events with increasing frequency.

Wonder where they will move to when they've had enough ?

I'm looking for the best .22 pistol for long-term prepping use, ideally something I can depend on in a collapse situation. Not trying to start a caliber war; I already own a 9mm, but I want a .22 for specific reasons:

• Ammo is cheap and easy to stockpile. I can afford to stack thousands of rounds without going broke.

• Low recoil. Easy to train with, teach others, and shoot all day without fatigue.

• Quieter than centerfire options (especially useful if using subsonics or suppressed).

• Good for small game or deterrence without overkill.

This would be more of a utility pistol: light defense, hunting small game, barter potential, and backup use. I’d like something reliable that can run dirty, doesn’t need constant cleaning, and ideally has a decent mag capacity.

Should I go with a semi-auto like the Ruger Mark IV, SR22, Taurus TX22, or stick to something ultra-reliable like a revolver (Ruger LCR-22 or Taurus 942)? Budget matters, but I’ll spend more if the reliability is worth it.

What do you guys trust in a long-term grid-down scenario?