Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42404131

Unpaywalled (archived)

The EU and a handful of other countries have been left unusually isolated as they push for action to tackle global warming, after geopolitical schisms spilled into climate policies at the UN COP30 summit in Brazil.

The meeting of 194 countries for more than two weeks in the tropical temperatures of the city of Belém nearly ended in collapse on Saturday when the EU warned of the possibility of a “no deal”. Countries such as the UK considered walking out.

Their efforts to directly reference fossil fuels or ambitious climate action language in a final agreement were blocked again and again by China, India, and some petro-states.

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“At a time when extreme heat, catastrophic floods and wildfires are setting new records every year, negotiators still could not summon the basic courage to stand up to fossil fuel interests,” [Martina Egedusevic, an expert in nature-based solutions and risk management at the University of Exeter] said.

Benoît Faraco, the ambassador in charge of climate change negotiations for France, said the EU and France had fought for a road map away from fossil fuels and deforestation all the way into the early hours of Saturday morning, in “bloc against bloc” negotiations, but to no avail.

“It is profoundly worrying to realise that climate multilateralism is still something that needs to be protected, that there is everything to play for,” he said.

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More than 80 countries had initially backed a proposal for a so-called road map aimed at setting out how countries could shift away from fossil fuels during the two-week talks. By the final night of talks, the EU, UK, Colombia and a handful of other nations remained the driving forces.

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China joined India, Saudi Arabia and other exporters in using COP as an opportunity to spar with the EU over its soon-to-be-introduced carbon border tax. The final agreement set out plans for further trade talks next year.

Other than on this issue, China remained quieter than expected at talks where the petrostates took centre stage. This is despite China’s renewable energy boom and President Xi Jinping’s affirmation that green energy is the “trend of our time”.

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The sigh of the privileged but anxious creature

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42335138

Archived link

A deal for a “road map” away from fossil fuels has been scuppered at Cop30 in Brazil after Saudi Arabia, Russia and China successfully blocked the proposal.

The conference in Belém, a city in the Amazon, had been dominated by a move for a concrete plan to shift away from oil, gas and coal and to stop deforestation. But the Brazilian hosts failed to find a way through the stand-off at the talks, which have ended with a watered-down deal 24 hours after they were due to finish.

Instead, Brazil’s proposed transition road map — which it called the the Belém Transition Compass, and which was supported by the UK, EU and nearly 100 other countries — will be pursued via a voluntary agreement to discuss it through diplomatic channels over the next two years, with a goal of reporting back at Cop31 in Turkey next year and Cop32 in Ethiopia in 2027. Experts warned that the conference — which was boycotted by the US after President Trump pulled out of the UN climate process — has seen the emergence of an “axis of obstruction” opposed to climate action.

A decade after every nation in the world signed the Paris agreement and pledged to unite to limit global warming, climate diplomacy ground on at glacial pace in Belém.

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Professor Michael Jacobs of the think tank ODI Global and the University of Sheffield said: “Geopolitically, this is the creation of a new axis of obstruction — actively promoting fossil fuels and opposed to climate action.”

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Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, who was in Belém for the talks, said: “This deal isn’t perfect and is far from what science requires. But at a time when multilateralism is being tested, it is significant that countries continue to move forward together.”

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The most striking example of the clash of environmental idealism and economic reality is provided by the Cop30 hosts. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, was determined to push through the roadmap away from fossil fuels: it was presented to delegates as his idea, his legacy in the battle against a warming world.

Yet just three weeks before Cop30 started, Brazil approved new oil exploration off its coast, close to the mouth of the Amazon. “I am totally in favour of a world one day that will not need any more fossil fuels, but this moment has not come yet,” Lula said in defence of the plans.

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One illustrates the huge boom in renewable power that is on the cards if countries follow through on their stated energy policies. Renewable power, the IEA [International Energy Agency] forecasts, will grow fourfold by 2050.

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But [...] the same IEA report reveals that the demand for oil and gas is still rising, and if nations do not change tack, will not peak for another 25 years.

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I you are concerned about stopping climate change, renewables only do their job if they displace fossil fuels.

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Democracy Now! interview:

As we broadcast from the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil, we are joined by one of Brazil's most prominent scientists, Carlos Nobre, who says the Amazon now produces more carbon emissions than it removes from the atmosphere, moving closer to a "tipping point" after which it will be impossible to save the world's largest rainforest. "We need urgently to get to zero deforestation in all Brazilian biomes, especially the Amazon," he argues.

Nobre is a senior researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo and co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon. He's lead author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for its reports on global warming.

Democracy Now! is an independent global news hour that airs on over 1,500 TV and radio stations Monday through Friday. Watch our livestream at democracynow.org Mondays to Fridays 8-9 a.m. ET.

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The UK has announced much harsher rules for asylum seekers, including the prospect of more deportations for those whose applications fail. The US is trebling the size of its deportation force. The EU is doubling its border budgets. And in the coming decades, hundreds of millions of people might be displaced by ecological changes.

Denmark, Australia, UK, Italy, US, Germany, Netherlands and on and on..all.going full fascist, helping destroy the biosphere for those who didn't cause this and then telling the to fcuk off when they need help.

Greed and selfisness not unexpted, just disappointing.. Again

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/30397631

Almost two out of three corals across popular tourism spots at the world heritage-listed Ningaloo reef died after an unprecedented marine heatwave hit the Western Australia region, scientists have said.

Solution ? Vote for politcans who will extract more, coal and gas and a usless COP gab fest in Australia while we LARP at giving a shit ? after all we still have the other 1/3 of corals to kill !

(BadEmpanada Live: ) Talking about how Climate Change is now completely off the agenda for everyone and how grim this is for everything.

Have you ever wondered what the beginning of the end of the oil era looks like? Look around, we are living in it!

This is a good collapse in many ways, except the resistance to it is driving genuinely bad collapse like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the US's attempts to villainize and go to war with Venezuela. It used to all come back to oil, now it all comes back to having a secure, defendable way to make sure you can still sell your oil uninterrupted.

-The Moment The Music Stops In Oil Company Musical Chairs- would be my caption for this moment in history

The question is which collapse do we get? The collapse of fossil fuels or the collapse of everything else?

Archived

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China’s NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] stood in sharp contrast to a complete withdrawal from the Paris Agreement by the world’s second-largest emitter and biggest historical emitter—the United States. China’s limited commitment coupled with this U.S. exit has caused many to doubt the viability of global climate progress under UN-led forums during a critical Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting in Brazil.

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China is the world’s largest emitter today, making up about a third of global emissions. The country overtook the United States in greenhouse gas emissions in 2006, and in the past decade, China’s emissions have only continued to climb. Since 2015, 90 percent of the world’s growth in emissions is traceable to China.

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But these commitments [to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10 percent below peak levels by 2035] fall short from what analysts forecast could keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris agreement. Research from nonprofit organization the Asia Society found that China would need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from peak emissions by 2035 to still align with the 1.5°C goal established under the Paris Agreement. Moreover, China does not specify when it will “peak” its emissions, leaving the country flexibility to increasing emissions in the next decade.

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What’s China’s NDC strategy?

Beijing could have chosen to under promise and over deliver on its global climate pledges. The Chinese government has historically followed this approach, achieving several of its past climate commitments ahead of schedule. Committing to less restrictive and ambitious NDCs grant China more flexibility in its economic, technological, and industrial development over the next decade.

In addition, Beijing is facing internal headwinds that could circumscribe climate ambition. For example, in February, China’s central government issued a directive for provinces to develop new pricing mechanisms plans for solar and wind power by the end of 2025. As of October, only about a half of the provinces had finalized the new rules.

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Jennifer and Dean Bye were just getting by before Hurricane Ida slammed into southern Louisiana in 2021. The couple own a house in a comfortable subdivision in Paulina, a town about an hour west of New Orleans, that they share with their three kids.

Then Ida turned everything upside down. The storm, one of the strongest to hit Louisiana on record, left a trail of devastation in its wake: More than 100 people died and economic losses totaled $75 billion.

Four years later, the Byes are still living in a damaged house. Patches of tattered plywood siding are exposed to the elements. Inside, the windowsills are blackened with mildew. The kids play in a stripped living room, bare cement and grout underfoot. Fast-food wrappers and trash mingle with packing boxes and pulled-up carpet. The other houses in the neighborhood are neatly manicured, but the Byes’ house is still a wreck.

On paper, the family did everything right. They had homeowners insurance through an A+ rated, Better Business Bureau-accredited insurer called FedNat Insurance Company and kept up with their payments — some of the highest in the country.

What they didn’t account for was what might happen if their insurance company couldn’t make its payments.

In 2019, FedNat acquired Maison Insurance, a company with operations in Louisiana and Texas. It proceeded to become one of the biggest property insurers in Louisiana. But its fortunes took a turn less than a year later, when four hurricanes hit the South in the span of about two months, followed by a deadly winter storm that burst pipes and flooded homes in early 2021.

Later that year, as FedNat faced more than $100 million in net losses, a figure that included the claim filed by the Byes, the company abruptly announced it was dropping all of its policies outside of its home base of Florida. Some 13,500 homeowners in Louisiana were suddenly forced to scramble for insurance. Reorienting to focus exclusively on Florida, FedNat’s CEO said, would result “in a financially stronger company.”

Those assurances proved premature.

“By declaring bankruptcy, insurance companies can force policyowners and reinsurance companies to take a ‘haircut’ — meaning take less money than they were promised initially,” said Aldrich. “Some of those assets then are reabsorbed into a new company, some can be sold off, and some of the policies that are still productive, maybe they’ll keep those, like if they’re in very low-risk areas.”

People like the Byes, forced to navigate the legal process of fighting for an insurance payout while simultaneously trying to find another company willing to insure them, end up getting caught in the crosshairs.

We are now witnessing what the historian Richard Rhodes termed “public man-made death,” which, he observed, has been perhaps the most overlooked cause of mortality in the last century. Brooke Nichols, the Boston University epidemiologist and mathematical modeller, has maintained a respected tracker of current impact. The model is conservative, assuming, for example, that the State Department will fully sustain the programs that remain. As of November 5th, it estimated that U.S.A.I.D.’s dismantling has already caused the deaths of six hundred thousand people, two-thirds of them children.

The toll is appalling and will continue to grow. But these losses will be harder to see than those of war. For one, they unfold slowly. When H.I.V. or tuberculosis goes untested, unprevented, or inadequately treated, months or years can pass before a person dies. The same is true for deaths from vaccine-preventable illnesses. Another difficulty is that the deaths are scattered. Suppose the sudden withdrawal of aid raises a country’s under-five death rate from three per cent to four per cent. That would be a one-third increase in deaths, but hard to appreciate simply by looking around.

One mundane procedural issue stands out, however: voting. Due to the concerted efforts of oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, participants in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC—the treaty that kicked off the yearly COP negotiations—are unable to vote on contentious issues. Instead, they have to pursue consensus, giving every country a de facto veto power over proposals they don’t like. Environmental groups have called this a “poison pill” that has undermined climate progress for decades. Many are trying to stop it from sullying other international environmental agreements, like the UN plastics treaty.

“Not one single nation among you can afford this, as climate disasters rip double digits off GDP,” he said. “To falter whilst megadroughts wreck national harvests, sending food prices soaring, makes zero sense economically and politically. To squabble while famines take hold, forcing millions to flee their homelands – this will never be forgotten as conflicts spread.”

Archived

China has transformed the Tibetan Plateau, one of the world’s most fragile environments, into a zone of extreme ecological stress under its state‑centric model of infrastructure expansion, militarisation, and resource extraction, reported the IANS new service Oct 6, citing Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy. The centre has accused China of engaging in ‘extractive colonialism’ in Tibet, with forced relocation of close to one million Tibetans.

The group’s report, published ahead of the UN’s climate change conference COP30 in November in Brazil, has said Tibet must no longer remain the blind spot of global environmental governance as the crisis unfolding on the ‘Roof of the World’ is already shaping the future of water, food, and energy security across the Indo‑Pacific and beyond.

The centre’s new Stockholm Paper, titled as ‘Wither Tibet in the Climate Crisis Agenda?’ has brought together more than 20 international experts to examine the Tibetan Plateau’s accelerating ecological breakdown and its far‑reaching implications for Asia’s water security, regional stability, and global climate governance.

Noting that the Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the ‘Third Pole’, is warming at more than twice the global average, the report has warned that its glaciers are retreating, permafrost is thawing, and grasslands are degrading, threatening the delicate water systems that sustain nearly two billion people across South and Southeast Asia.

The report has expressed alarm that despite this planetary importance, Tibet remains largely absent from international climate diplomacy, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and successive COP negotiations.

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The report has described this as “extractive colonialism”, a process in which the costs of global sustainability are borne by one of the planet’s most vulnerable ecosystems.

The resulting pollution, deforestation, and cultural displacement is found to undermine both environmental justice and human security, with the human dimension of Tibet’s transformation being equally severe.

The report has found that close to one million Tibetans have been forcibly relocated since the year 2000 under programs justified as ecological protection or poverty alleviation. What is more, many have been resettled multiple times, often without fair compensation or sustainable livelihoods. These relocations, together with demographic engineering and assimilationist education policies, erode cultural identity and weaken the traditional stewardship that has preserved Tibet’s high‑altitude ecology for centuries.

The paper has called for Tibet to be treated as a frontline of the global climate emergency, comparable in urgency to the Arctic or low‑lying island states. It has pointed out that the plateau’s stability is essential to monsoon patterns, biodiversity corridors, and continental climate regulation.

The report has presented a 10‑Point Framework for Global Action designed to embed Tibet within international climate cooperation.

The paper has stressed that protecting Tibet is not a political act but an ecological imperative that transcends national borders. Its degradation threatens Asia’s hydrological balance, undermines global carbon stability, and jeopardizes the livelihoods of nearly one‑third of humanity, the report has noted.

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cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/45227919

Archived

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For the first time, China set a specific target for reducing emissions. However, it falls short of what analysts say is needed to meet the Paris goal of limiting average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), compared to the 1850s.

Xi announced in a video message to a U.N. climate meeting in September that China would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, and would strive to do even better than that.

Modeling by multiple climate experts shows that China would need to cut emissions by around 30% for the world to be on track to the Paris goal.

“This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonize faster,” Norah Zhang, an analyst at Climate Action Tracker, said after Xi’s announcement.

Previously, China had not pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, it promised to reduce its emissions relative to the size of its economy — so they could still grow but at a slower pace than the economy. Its goal has been to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030.

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cross-posted from: https://piefed.social/c/collapse/p/1450351/net-zero-is-an-insidious-loophole-that-distracts-from-the-scientific-imperative-to-elim

History tells us that polite incrementalism and political kowtowing will prevail at Cop30 – even as catastrophe unfolds around us

While the growth in fossil CO2 emissions in 2024 was driven by increases in gas and oil – together accounting for just over half of global emissions – the burning of coal reached a record high, accounting for 41%

Until we recognise it's a demand side problem, nothing changes aside from every day making it worse.

Ban flying, ban private car ownership, ban cruise ships, recreational boating, recreational off road equipment, gasoline gardening equipment and most importantly ban advertising, make being a billionare a criminal offence and cap income at 5x median.

Reading James Kenneth Galbraith's esssay on "The Culture of Contentment" mostly explains why there is no political action beyond rhetoric, too many people enjoying their destructive lifestyle and ensuring they vote for politcans who will keep it that way, with little regard for a stable biosphere or..

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/06/14/opinion/science-civilization-collapse-environment-limits

Rees bluntly states, “the human enterprise is effectively subsuming the ecosphere” and “wide-spread societal collapse cannot be averted — collapse is not a problem to be solved, but rather the final stage of a cycle to be endured.”

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/52442365

Despite Paris Agreement pledges, countries 'have landed off target' on climate goals multiple times, the UN warns.

Archived version:

Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

Activists have taken on a genocide and climate change-linked arms and fossil fuel firm on London. Adani Group, who are based in India, have perversely been allowed to sponsor the ‘green gallery’ at the Science Museum. Hundreds of teachers have threatened a boycott.

Opponents of the green-washing project projected the words ‘Drop Adani’ onto the museums and demonstrated outside. They also put up posters which read “Our energy revolution fuels genocide” and “Our energy revolution runs on firepower”.

The campaign describes Adani as “the world’s second largest developer of coal power”.

Adani directly fuelling genocide

The educational and cultural boycott has been taken up by Parents for Palestine, Education Climate Coalition, Culture Unstained and others.

In a press release, a spokesperson for Parents for Palestine explained:

There’s no question that Adani is directly fuelling – and profiting from – repression, violence and genocide. The posters were quickly removed, making it only too clear that the museum doesn’t want people to know the truth about Adani.

Just last month, the museum agreed to host a private cocktail reception for Adani and its corporate clients in the ‘Energy Revolution’ gallery it sponsors, when instead, it should be holding them accountable for their crimes by denouncing and disengaging from Adani.

Blood money and arms firm

Adani has a deep relationship with Israeli arms firm Elbit Systems. This has been been criticised by human rights organisations:

Adani-Elbit Advanced Systems India Ltd, located in Hyderabad is a joint venture between Adani Defence and Aerospace and Elbit Systems, Israel to manufacture advanced drone systems

And, Adani has maintained its support throughout Israel’s genocide:

Even as Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza continues, Adani Elbit has recently supplied 20 Hermes 900 drones to the Israel military. While several countries have withdrawn support to Israel in the face of its inhuman carnage of Palestinians, Adani continues to profit from it, lining its pocket with blood money.

The campaign aims to put pressure on the museum to divest from unethical firms. Energy Embargo for Palestine previously carried out an action at the so-called ‘pink ball’ for corporate donors:

BREAKING: British Museum worker disrupts the Museum’s “Pink Ball” billionaire gala and demands an end to the Museum’s sponsorship with BP. pic.twitter.com/0CnrFg7e5b

— Energy Embargo for Palestine (@EEforpalestine) October 19, 2025

Their spokesperson said:

The Science Museum must immediately drop Adani as a sponsor. At Energy Embargo for Palestine, we have a campaign against the British Museum for its £50m sponsorship deal with BP.

These companies are complicit in the genocide of Palestinians, and in climate collapse, and they rely on these partnerships to whitewash their image. We will continue opposing these deals until they are permanently dropped.

And a spokesperson for Climate Resistance said

Gautam Adani is a billionaire coal baron who has made his obscene fortune supplying arms for genocide and fueling climate collapse. That the Science Museum is taking this filthy cash is beyond shameful.

We have to end his climate wrecking empire, tax him and his billionaire mates out of existence, and use their obscene wealth to fund climate action.

Adani also operate Haifa port, where a lot of Israeli weaponry arrives. Needless to say that equipment gets used against Palestinians.

As a scientist, I've had the privilege—and the burden—of seeing this unfolding crisis through precise measurements and peer-reviewed evidence. At the same time, as a mother, I've watched my children and their generation protest, demanding a future they can live in. They are right to fight. The data is irrefutable: the planet is warming—fast.

Some argue that Earth has always gone through warm and cold phases. That is true, but irrelevant. Never before in our human history—the time of Homo sapiens—have we been so numerous, so settled, and so dependent on stable coastlines, fertile soils, and predictable weather. When the last Ice Age ended between 20,000 and 12,000 years ago, there were only a few humans on the move, following food and shelter.

We are now eight billion souls, rooted in cities and nations that cannot simply relocate as the climate shifts beneath us.

And yet we will see how all that unfolds as the stupidity of human entitlement butts heads with the reality of the laws of nature.

I'd suggest the reality is violence and lots of it as billions try and move and racsim and xenophobia rears it ugly head even further then now, making it all worse. It's one of the reasons I'm so far south of the equator, on a small island, off the bottom of Australia, at 270m above sea level and not on a flood plain.