Russia

Archived

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"We are recording an actual increase in the de-sovereignization of part of Russian territory in favor of China. This primarily concerns the use of resource-rich lands and the sale of scarce resources to China," Ukraine's President is cited after a report by the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Oleh Ivashchenko.

"We are also recording that China is taking steps to intensify cooperation with Russia, particularly in the field of the defense industry. Intelligence services of our partners have similar information."

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In a related report, U.S. outlet Newsweek cites Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute: “Xi Jinping views Russia as an indispensable strategic partner in constructing a post-U.S.–led world order.

“Reconciling these competing impulses points toward a strategy of slow, steady accretions of effective sovereignty, punctuated by performative shows of solidarity, from parades to joint military drills, that mask an emerging asymmetry," Cronin adds.

Cronin said however that China "clearly appears poised to expand its influence across its shared borderlands through a mix of brazen cyber intrusions and opportunistic moves to anchor itself inside Russia’s increasingly enfeebled economy."

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Web archive link

Russia’s lower-house State Duma passed a bill on Tuesday granting the state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring access to detailed information about Russians’ financial transactions.

The move is intended to improve Russia’s ability to track suspicious financial activity more quickly, making it easier to identify potential money laundering or terrorism financing activities.

Critics argued that it could expand financial surveillance and restrict citizens' financial freedom, while others warned that it might increase the risk of unjustified account freezes.

The legislation will allow Rosfinmonitoring to directly access transaction data from the National Payment Card System (NPCS), which manages operations involving Russia’s Mir cards, and the Fast Payment System (FPS).

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Archived

Russia’s top privatization official has overseen a system that funneled major state assets to businessmen close to the Kremlin, including billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, the exiled investigative outlet The Insider reported [links to Russian article].

Vadim Yakovenko, head of the Federal Agency for State Property Management (Rosimushchestvo), has seen his role expand since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with the agency gaining control over assets abandoned by departing foreign companies and property seized by the Prosecutor General’s Office.

According to The Insider, one of the most notable sales occurred in 2024, when Rosimushchestvo sold Rosspirtprom, Russia’s largest alcohol producer, for 8 billion rubles ($104.8 million).

Industry analysts and market participants at the time described the price as significantly undervalued.

The buyer, a little-known firm called Biznes-Alyans, is 51% controlled by the Batman closed-end mutual fund managed by Fin-Partner.

While the Batman fund’s beneficiaries are not publicly disclosed, Rotenberg was the ultimate beneficiary of the deal, The Insider reported, citing internal financial documents that it obtained.

Rotenberg also acquired several chemical companies confiscated by the state, including Volzhsky Orgsintez, Metafrax Chemicals and the Dalnegorsky Mining and Processing Plant, earlier reporting by the exiled outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe said.

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Archived

One of Russia’s largest “systemically important” banks has disclosed severe financial strains as overdue loans mount across the corporate sector.

Credit Bank of Moscow (MKB), closely linked to state oil major Rosneft, reported an eightfold surge in overdue debt since the start of the year, the Kommersant business daily reported, citing the bank’s financial records.

Clients failed to repay 585 billion rubles ($7.66 billion) in loans on time between January and September, pushing total non-performing loans to 668 billion rubles ($8.75 billion), or about 28% of the bank’s loan book.

A source told Kommersant that the problems were uncovered during a Central Bank inspection that began in summer 2024.

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MKB was the only major bank to post a net interest loss in the third quarter, with the loss amounting to 157.6 billion rubles ($2.06 billion).

Founded by billionaire Roman Avdeev, MKB was drawn into Rosneft’s orbit in 2017 after nearly collapsing alongside other lenders in the so-called “Moscow ring” — Otkritie FC Bank, Binbank and Promsvyazbank.

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Rosneft effectively rescued MKB by injecting capital, placing long-term deposits maturing in 2066 and shifting into the bank hundreds of billions of rubles in reverse-repo deals used to finance its operations.

It remains unclear which borrowers defaulted in 2025, as the bank’s disclosures do not specify.

The Central Bank noted in November that several mining and metals companies required debt restructuring amid falling demand and prices, while the oil and gas sector has been hit by sanctions and a sharp decline in crude prices.

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[Edit typo.]

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The Russian government’s tax initiatives are part of broader budget reforms proposed for 2026–2028. The new federal budget places the burden of military spending on the public and businesses — and the war will cost them dearly.

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The authorities had promised that the tax increase would affect only 4% of small and mid-sized businesses, but now they have decided to squeeze small enterprises to the fullest.

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[In addition to income and consumption tax increases] the government is also set to abolish the reduced social insurance contribution rate for SMEs. Such an increase in the tax burden of small companies will wipe out profits that were previously earned within the range of 10–12% of revenue. This measure will hit labor-intensive industries first — retail, catering, and construction — where payroll makes up a significant portion of expenses.

The tax authorities are also gaining powers to tighten oversight. They will be authorized to increase fines, write off taxpayers’ debts from bank cards without a court order, and bring in inspectors from other regions to conduct major tax audits.

Deadlines for paying taxes have also been tightened. Under the new regulations, if a payment deadline falls on a weekend or public holiday, the obligation must be fulfilled in advance, requiring businesses to plan more precisely if they are to avoid facing penalties for noncompliance.

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“If I have to start paying VAT, costs will skyrocket,” entrepreneur Vyacheslav Kopylov complained on Business FM. Kopylov runs a small grocery store in Krasnodar, operating under a patent system. He expects that next year could be the last for his business. Meanwhile, the trade sector accounts for the largest share of the gross regional product (GRP) in Krasnodar Krai. Even nationwide, it ranks just behind Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow Region. In other words, Krasnodar Krai is set to suffer the most from the tax hit.

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Importantly, while VAT goes entirely to the federal budget, 100% of revenues from the simplified tax system go to the regional budget. Therefore, small businesses that survive the tax hike will be paying into the federal budget instead of contributing money for use closer to home. Regional budgets will lose revenue and, by rough estimates, face a combined deficit of around half a trillion rubles ($6.5 billion). Only the budgets of Moscow and St. Petersburg will remain in surplus.

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The tax increase will also lead to rising costs throughout the supply chain, with each participant adding their share of the tax and their markup to maintain profit. The manufacturer includes 22% in the ex-factory price, the wholesaler adds a markup on that amount and applies VAT again, and the retailer repeats the process.

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The blow will be especially hard on regions with large populations and developed retail markets — Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar Krai, and Moscow Region. In these areas, a combination of intense competition and low margins could drive down turnover in multiple sectors, most notably in food retail and services (catering, beauty salons, dry cleaners). Any increase in the tax burden presents a critical threat to such businesses.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43056816

Web archive link

The E.U. blacklisting will further isolate Russia’s financial system, making cooperation significantly riskier for foreign banks and investors. “In practical terms, landing on this list serves as a global warning: engaging with this country entails serious risk,” Shumanov explained. He pointed out that the designation will force even “friendly countries” like China and Turkey to curb Russia-linked operations to avoid “ending up among the pariahs or rogue states that assist those on these blacklists.” Credit-rating agencies may incorporate the blacklist status into sovereign credit assessments, reducing Russia’s access to investment, technology, and partnerships. “Entire industries face long-term contraction,” Shumanov explained.

Inclusion among countries like Myanmar, Mali, Kenya, South Africa, Venezuela, and Syria has nothing to do with attracting investment or developing global commerce. Instead, Shumanov said, it signals Russia’s erasure from numerous investment programs and bars Russian businesses from prospective projects, largely because numerous governments closely track European economic policy.

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Russia has seen a sharp rise in aviation incidents in the fourth year of Western sanctions that cut off access to spare parts for foreign-made aircraft, an investigation by the exiled news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe has found.

Russian airlines reported more than 800 equipment malfunctions that led to flight cancellations or emergency landings from January through late November 2025, Novaya Gazeta Europe caculated based on data from the Aviaincident monitoring channel.

That is roughly four times the number recorded during the same period in 2024, when just over 200 such cases were logged.

Western sanctions imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 banned Russian carriers from EU and U.S. airspace and blocked the purchase of spare parts for Boeing and Airbus jets.

Russia’s aviation chief Dmitry Yadrov warned in October that the country could lose 339 aircraft over the next five years in the worst-case scenario, including 109 foreign-made planes.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42895525

• The International Criminal Court (ICC) is under assault by the United States and Russia, among others, which are determined to undermine its mandate as the court of last resort.
• ICC member countries need to stay firm in their defense of the court so that impartial justice remains a critical part of the rules-based international order.
• ICC member countries should use their annual meeting to defend the court human rights groups, and others cooperating with it, and to enforce judicial findings against members who fail to arrest and surrender those sought by the court.

Member countries of the International Criminal Court (ICC) should intensify efforts to protect the court and human rights groups campaigning for justice from attack, Human Rights Watch said in a new report. The 20-page report makes detailed recommendations for the annual session of the ICC’s Assembly of States Parties, which will meet in The Hague, Netherlands, from December 1 to 6, 2025.

Throughout 2025, the US administration of President Donald Trump has imposed sanctions against court officials, a United Nations expert, and Palestinian civil society organizations in an attack on justice and the international rule of law. Russian arrest warrants issued in 2023 and 2024 against ICC officials remain pending. In June, the court faced a second serious cyber-attack with the purpose of espionage.

“Government efforts to undermine the ICC reflect broader attacks on the global rule of law, aiming to disable institutions that seek to hold those responsible for the worst crimes to account,” said Liz Evenson, international justice director at Human Rights Watch. “ICC member countries need to stay firm in their defense of the court so that impartial justice remains a critical part of the rules-based international order.”

The Assembly session takes place amid important ICC achievements over the past year. In March, the Philippines surrendered former President Rodrigo Duterte to the court to face charges of crimes against humanity related to the country’s notorious “war on drugs,” which killed tens of thousands of people. In October, ICC judges handed down a landmark conviction of a former “Janjaweed” militia leader for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur, Sudan.

On February 6, President Trump issued an executive order authorizing asset freezes and entry bans on ICC officials and others supporting the court’s work. The order clearly seeks to shield US and Israeli officials from facing charges before the ICC. In November 2024, ICC judges had issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

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Government sanctions should only be used to target those who are committing serious crimes, not those who document and deliver justice for such crimes, Human Rights Watch said.

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Web archive link

The exact number of people living with HIV in Russia is unknown. Data on HIV-related deaths is no longer published.

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It’s no longer clear how many people in Russia have died of HIV. Starting in 2025, the authorities stopped releasing these statistics, along with most demographic metrics. Data on new cases, now published annually rather than monthly, is also harder to find.

Foreign nationals in Russia test positive for HIV less often than Russian citizens.

Like Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, Russia is one of the few countries that deport foreigners with HIV. Foreign nationals are required to undergo HIV testing if they want to live in Russia for more than 90 days, work there, obtain a residence permit, or if they are refugees or have applied for refugee status.

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Russia’s worst HIV rates are in the Urals and Siberia. Conservative-leaning Vologda is among the regions with the highest number of HIV-positive pregnant women.

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To assess HIV prevalence across Russia’s regions, [researchers] examined several indicators, such as the share of infected pregnant women and the proportion of people with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy. The situation proved most severe in the following regions:

• Kemerovo
• Tomsk
• Chelyabinsk
• Altai
• Krasnoyarsk
• The Leningrad region
• The Komi Republic
• Irkutsk
• Perm
• The Chukotka Autonomous Okrug

Because all pregnant women in Russia are advised to undergo HIV testing, this indicator provides an indirect measure of the situation in each region. “If more than 1 percent of pregnant women in a region are infected for three consecutive years, it means the virus has spread beyond vulnerable groups,” [researchers] authors conclude. On average, the rate across Russia is 0.6 percent, but it exceeds 1 percent in 14 regions, 11 of which have reported infection rates at this level for several years already.

Vologda Governor Roman Filimonov has lobbied to end local abortion services and promoted the region as a proving ground for “conservative” values. However, the data show that HIV among pregnant women is rising, from 0.17 percent in 2022 to 1 percent in 2023 and then 2 percent in 2024.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42770675

Web archive link

The owner of a major Chinese drone parts supplier has taken a stake in one of Russia’s leading drone companies, highlighting a deepening relationship between Moscow and Beijing’s military-industrial complexes.

A company filing, made in September and seen by the Financial Times, listed Wang Dinghua as the new owner of 5 per cent of the shares in Rustakt, a manufacturer of the VT-40 first-person-view drone widely used by Russia in attacks on Ukrainian forces.

Shenzhen Minghuaxin and other companies owned by Wang, a businessman based in the southern Chinese city, have been big suppliers of drone parts to Rustakt and its allied companies.

While China has given Moscow greater access to its vast capacity to produce electronics than Kyiv, this new tie-up marks a previously unknown level of co-operation between a Chinese company and a Russian military supplier.

The FT first found the filing in Russian public records. Within a day of accessing it, however, all of Rustakt’s ownership records had been suppressed and removed from official corporate registries in Russia. Data about the share transfer has also now been expunged from private corporate intelligence sites in the country.

At the time of the data suppression, Rustakt was listed as 95-per-cent-owned by Pavel Nikitin, a businessman. The company, which is subject to sanctions imposed by Ukraine and the EU, is listed by Ukrainian authorities as a participant in Russia’s “Judgment Day” project to supply uncrewed aerial vehicles and train pilots for its war effort.

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Rustakt was the largest importer of components for FPV drones in Russia between July 2023 and February 2025, according to a report earlier this year by the Centre for Defence Reforms in Kyiv, a Ukrainian think-tank.

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Samuel Bendett, a drone expert based at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that increasing co-operation between the Russian and Chinese military industrial complexes and Moscow’s reliance on Chinese drone parts meant “there is a logic to this tie-up”.

A former Ukrainian officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight said the VT-40 was being widely used by Russian forces along the frontline in Ukraine.

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“Since first appearing on the battlefield in 2023, the drone has undergone several upgrades to enhance its electronic-warfare resilience and control systems,” he said. “While it isn’t exceptional in any single area, its mass production, low cost and availability make it a consistent workhorse for Russian forces.”

Rustakt and Minghuaxin were already working together before September. FT analysis of Russian customs records suggests Minghuaxin has shipped $304mn of parts to Rustakt, as well as $107mn of goods to an associated Russian company, Santex Plant.

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“Russia has moved to industrial-scale use of FPV drones” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, head of the Centre for Defence Reforms. “We are talking about thousands of units per day and tens of thousands per month. These were produced through the ‘Russian Drone’ network in conjunction with Rustakt and other firms.”

The Russian companies “all critically depend on Chinese brushless motors and electronics supplied via a network of intermediaries and importers”, Danylyuk said.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42699014

Web archive link

When an unemployed father of three received a phone call in July, asking if he wanted to do a yearlong bodyguard training program in Russia, he says he jumped at the opportunity.

He said the woman on the other line identified herself as a daughter of Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s former president. He said she told him that after completing the program, he would be given a job working security for her father’s political party, for which she held a seat in Parliament.

But within six weeks of arriving in Russia, the man, 46, sensed that something was off. His supposed bodyguard trainers gave him military fatigues and a rifle and took him to the southern city of Rostov. A short time later, he said, he was on the front line of the war in Ukraine, sleeping in trenches in mud-soaked battlefields in the Donbas region and surrounded by tanks, drones and raging gunfire.

“We had been lied to,” said the man, who said he was still stuck in Russia and requested anonymity for fear of reprisals. “There was no bodyguard training. We were going to war.”

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Seventeen South Africans have sent distress signals to their government this month asking to be rescued from the grinding battle in Ukraine, according to the office of President Cyril Ramaphosa. Mr. Ramaphosa has announced an investigation into how the men ended up there, and an elite police unit says it is looking into criminal charges against Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, Mr. Zuma’s daughter, who has been accused by one of her own sisters of tricking the men into joining the Russian battle.

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The sister, Nkosazana Bonganini Zuma-Mncube, said in a statement that she had a “moral obligation” to inform the authorities about Ms. Zuma-Sambudla’s involvement in the scandal. Eight of her own family members had been “lured to Russia under false pretenses and handed to a Russian mercenary group to fight in the Ukraine war without their knowledge or consent,” Ms. Zuma-Mncube said in her statement.

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The 46-year-old father of three sent The Times a photo of a military service certificate written in Russian with his picture on it. It describes him as a driver in a howitzer artillery platoon participating in Russia’s “special military operation” on Ukrainian territory, including Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. He said he had been pulled back from the front line but was told he would receive more military training soon. He is no longer in the Donbas region, he said.

“We don’t want to die here,” he said. “I am a shell of a human being, physically spent. It is complete misery.”

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42636072

Archived link

Here is the original report by the Bank of Finland.

Chinese exporters have been raising prices for Russian military-industrial buyers, exploiting the Kremlin’s reliance on their supplies as western sanctions restrict imports, new research has revealed.

Prices of export-controlled products shipped from China to Russia rose 87 per cent between 2021 and 2024 on average, according to a new paper from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (Bofit). The price of similar goods shipped elsewhere rose only 9 per cent.

The research shows that while Russia has been able to use Chinese suppliers to get around western restrictions on the purchase of products that have potential military uses, the wave of sanctions imposed in the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has pushed up costs for the Kremlin.

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The authors, Iikka Korhonen and Heli Simola, focused on a major pinch point: the trade in goods listed as “machinery and mechanical appliances”, a category that includes a large number of items identified as being of importance to the war-industry push.

They concluded sanctions have “limited Russia’s technological capabilities by making the importing of critical goods more expensive”.

In some cases, they found that increases in the value of export-controlled imports from China to Russia had been driven entirely by price rises rather than an increase in trade flows. By 2024, Russia’s imports of Chinese ball bearings had surged 76 per cent since 2021 in dollar terms. But the volume of exports dropped 13 per cent over that time.

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Relief from sanctions remains a critical goal of the Kremlin. In the original 28-point peace plan devised by the US and Russia and presented last week to Ukraine, the document states “the lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis”.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42577654

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Sweden, to its immense credit, has acknowledged what the rest of Europe still resists saying aloud: if an adversary can strike you from thousands of kilometres away, you cannot deter them with weapons that can’t reach beyond your own borders.

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Sweden, long admired for its cautious diplomacy and understated pragmatism, is now moving decisively onto the European security stage.

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Stockholm’s new strategy, proposing strike systems with ranges of up to 2,000 km, is not a provocation. It is a sober, overdue recognition that Europe’s deterrent posture must modernise or collapse.

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Predictably, some critics will accuse Sweden of “escalation”, as though investing in the ability to defend one’s territory somehow invites conflict. The argument is as old as pacifism and just as flawed.

In a world where one power routinely launches strikes 1,000 km deep into a sovereign state, the only escalatory act is to remain defenceless.

Europeans must abandon the naïve notion that Russia will be placated by weakness. If anything, it is weakness that tempts Moscow, just as it has throughout its imperial history. A Europe that cannot respond to missile attacks on its own soil — or that must beg the United States for every long-range capability — is a Europe that has ceded its sovereignty without a fight.

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Deterrence only works if the adversary believes you have both the capability and the will to respond. Without long-range strike, Europe has neither. Sweden understands this. Its decision is not merely strategic; it is moral. A nation has a duty to defend its citizens — and defence today requires offensive reach.

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Meanwhile, Polish members of the European Parliament (MEPs) have urged the European Union to respond firmly and jointly to Russian and Belarusian sabotage and repeated violations of EU airspace, during a debate in Strasbourg on Wednesday.

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The discussion followed a recent explosion on a railway line in eastern Poland, which Warsaw has described as an act of Russian-backed sabotage, and a series of incursions by drones launched from Russia into the skies of several member states.

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European Commission Vice-President Roxana Mînzatu said that strengthening Europe’s ability to react to “hybrid threats” is now a priority for the European Commission, Polish state news agency PAP reported.

The term “hybrid threats” is used in Brussels for hostile activity that mixes cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns and military pressure. Mînzatu noted that in recent weeks drones or aircraft had violated airspace over Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia.

“These incidents follow a pattern, they are not an accident. They are part of hybrid warfare,” she told lawmakers.

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Former [Polish] interior minister Mariusz Kamiński of Law and Justice argued that Russia is deliberately trying to create fear and chaos and that this method has been used consistently since Soviet times.

He said Russian special services have for months been organizing “terrorist activities” on EU territory, targeting critical infrastructure such as airports, and warned that “we are one step away from the deaths of our citizens.”

Kamiński said Belarus, under the rule of Alexander Lukashenko, has become a staging ground for Russian intelligence officers and saboteurs, and called for tougher EU measures.

He also proposed that the Commission, together with the European Council, work out a procedure to compensate damage caused by sabotage using frozen Russian assets that were blocked after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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Krzysztof Śmiszek from the Left alliance cited an estimate by Poland’s digital affairs minister Krzysztof Gawkowski that cyberattacks in Poland, including those targeting critical infrastructure, could reach 100,000 this year.

Śmiszek accused the far right in Europe of acting in the Kremlin’s interests, saying that “the Kremlin, as always, uses the mindless and ‘useful idiots,’” using a phrase often applied to people seen as advancing Russia’s agenda inside Western politics.

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On Thursday, on the sidelines of the European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg, the Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) is due to meet behind closed doors.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42576531

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Last year, from January to October 2024, long-range drones and missiles killed 434 and injured 2,045 civilians. In the same period in 2025, civilian deaths from long-range weapons increased by 26 per cent to 548 and civilian injuries increased by 75 per cent to 3,592. In Kyiv, for example, the number of civilian casualties in just the first ten months of 2025 was nearly four times higher than in the entire year of 2024. Other major urban centers, such as Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, also saw significant increases in civilian casualties.

“Beyond the horrific loss of life, civilian homes, buildings and public infrastructure are also destroyed, with reconstruction potentially taking years,” reiterated Ms. Bell. “Each new attack further compounds the psychological toll on civilians.”

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“Millions of people across Ukraine fear for their loved ones each time hundreds of drones and missiles fly overhead, knowing that anyone can be harmed, no matter where they live,” said Danielle Bell, Head of the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/42547282

Archived

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Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the centre has rescued over 100,000 children from the frontlines and more than 1,000 from the occupied territories and Russia, through unofficial routes and brave, special operations. It estimates that one in 10 of these children has experienced sexual abuse. The victims, of all ages and sexes, include girls who have been raped and suffered forced pregnancy, “so they will give birth to future Russian soldiers,” said Alina Dmytrenko, government relations officer at the Save Ukraine Centre, an NGO that helps families escape Russian occupation, returns children abducted by Russia.

“We have these cases which are very sensitive,” she confirmed. “It is a system. It is part of Russia’s aim when it comes to children: to break Ukrainian identity and trust. To turn Ukrainians into Russians. All the children who come here are traumatised, afraid to talk, to express emotion. But with sexual abuse, all of this is much heavier.”

“Russia is specifically targeting children,” she added. “It is shocking. How can you abuse the most vulnerable?”

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Unpaywalled (web archive)

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Russia, Moscow included, has started to feel the economic toll. From households cutting back on food spending to struggling steel, mining and energy companies, the country’s economic engine is showing multiple fractures, and the earlier resilience spurred by massive fiscal stimulus and record energy revenues is being tested.

The degree of suffering is incomparable to that of Ukraine, and is in any case unlikely to prompt Putin to end the war, yet it underlines the ever-higher cost being extracted for his decision to launch the all-out invasion in February 2022.

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“Prices are now rising faster than wages,” said Elena, 27, an event company manager from the Moscow region. Bloomberg withheld her surname to protect her identity in case of repercussions. She’s changed her shopping habits, buying fewer clothes and more domestic brands since imports have become too expensive.

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That’s a sharp contrast with earlier in the war, when gross domestic product was expanding on the back of military-linked investments that drove an almost 20% growth in wages in 2024, boosting consumer demand though also contributing to inflation.

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“The average bill for weekly grocery purchases has more than doubled in recent years,” said Denis, 40, a manager from Tambov, central Russia. Forced to reconsider spending, his family now buys fewer fruits and vegetables.

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Russia’s retail sector is undergoing a major shake-up. Fashion retailers made up 45% of all store closures in the third quarter, with nearly every second outlet shuttering, local media report. According to government-owned Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, the electronics market is experiencing its sharpest drop in demand in 30 years as buyers postpone major purchases.

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Many analysts still expect modest growth this year and next, but the Center for Strategic Research, a Moscow-based think tank, concluded on Nov. 18 that “there is almost no chance left to avoid a recession,” with output having declined in more than half Russian industries.

The steel industry is going through a crisis, with total consumption down 14% this year, according to top steelmaker Severstal PJSC. Demand for steel in construction declined 10%, while in machinery it slumped 32%. Coal mining is facing its worst situation in a decade with major companies cutting output.

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After Putin promised Russians no further tax increases in 2023, the Kremlin has instructed media not to mention his name in reports about the new levies, opposition outlet Meduza, which is banned in Russia, reported.

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Unpaywalled (web archive)

Russian homebuyers are finding it increasingly difficult to save for a mortgage down payment as housing costs rise far faster than wages, according to new data from Sberbank and state housing agency Dom.RF.

Only 8.3% of working Russians — roughly one in 12 — can save the required 20% down payment within two years, Sberbank deputy chairman Taras Skvortsov said.

The main barrier is no longer just high interest rates but the rapid rise in home prices, which has pushed the upfront cost out of reach for most buyers.

Sberbank estimates the average time needed to save for a down payment has nearly tripled in five years.

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Norilsk Nickel has been a money machine for investors, and especially Vladimir Potanin, since the early 1990s when the giant metal producer was privatised. Today the oligarch is Russia's fifth richest person with a net worth of more than €25 billion according to Forbes.

With the war all is now changing. Norilsk Nickel’s revenue has been declining for several years in a row. In late October, the company announced consolidated production results for the nine first months of 2025. Output of all key metals decreased compared to the same period last year.

“We have to work in difficult conditions,” Potanin said in a recent meeting with Putin. From time to time, the leader in the Kremlin orders Russia’s oligarchs to come to his office to talk about the state of affairs concerning their businesses.

Norilsk Nickel's CEO talked about falling global prices and troubles caused by sanctions.

The difficulties are caused by "disruption of supply chains, payment chains, the need to reorient ourselves to new, unfamiliar markets," Vladimir Potanin said.

The withdrawal of suppliers of key Western mining equipment due to sanctions has forced Norilsk Nickel to transition to alternative sources for its factories in Norilsk. This is a major reason for the dip in production, the company's CEO explained.

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Although Norilsk Nickel itself is not directly sanctioned, more than ten companies associated with the mining and metallurgy giant are included in the U.S. list of sanctions, the Barents Observer has previously reported. Rosatomflot, the icebreaker operator securing year-around transport of metals from the Arctic, has also been hit by sanctions.

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Archived

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The mother and child were later taken to the hospital, and the two are now together under medical supervision. The baby’s life is not in danger, according to the news outlet People of Baikal.

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Archived

Russia introduced a new Explanatory Dictionary of the State Language of the Russian Federation, compiled at St. Petersburg State University and immediately added to the official list of normative dictionaries.

Some examples:

authoritarianism ... considered the most effective form of governance in difficult times for a country ...

marriage ... family union between a man and a woman ... same-sex marriage (a homosexual intimate union between a man and a man or a woman and a woman, condemned by the Russian Orthodox Church and not supported by the Russian state) ...

enemy ... One whom the sovereign authority has deemed hostile to the people, the government, or the state. An ideological enemy. A sworn enemy ...

humanism ... traditional Russian spiritual and moral value: a worldview based on the principles of the value of the human person, human dignity, respect for others, concern for their well-being, the right to freedom, equality ...

life ... traditional Russian spiritual and moral value: the period of a person’s existence from conception ...

unity ... unity of the system of public authority. The historical unity of Belarusians, Russians, and Ukrainians. The unity of the peoples of Russia (a traditional Russian spiritual and moral value) ...

ideal ... Moral ideals (a traditional Russian spiritual and moral value: high moral principles and convictions that inspire and guide a person toward goodness, justice, honesty, compassion, and other virtues, with strict rejection of destructive ideologies that allow immoral conduct, actions causing suffering, corruption, and other unlawful deeds) ...

limitrophe ... in 21st-century Europe: a state used as a buffer between Western Europe and Russia, which is politically, economically, and culturally incapable of being independent ...

regime ... set of political, economic, and social measures used by state authorities to govern society ... the Kyiv regime (in Ukraine since 2014: the established form of political rule, which poses a threat to the fundamental rights and interests of the Russian-speaking population) ...

Be warned, some of the discussions describe horrific events, such as torture techniques used.

A conversation at 46:21 of a girlfriend/wife trying in vain to convince her soldier partner that Russia's institutions are deeply corrupt, and of how many people had lost their jobs, was quite interesting.

Archived link

Russia’s largest silicon plant will suspend operations from Jan. 1, 2026, its owner announced Monday.

Metals group Rusal said its decision to shutter the Kremniy plant in the Irkutsk region was prompted by a lack of demand, with imported silicon now significantly cheaper than domestic output and foreign production continuing to rise.

It added that Russian silicon is also struggling to find buyers on global markets.

Rusal said it has notified local authorities of the planned shutdown and expects support in mitigating the “social consequences.”

Its other silicon facility, the Silicon Ural plant, will keep operating at reduced capacity.

Rusal earlier said it would cut its 2025 silicon production to 35,000 tons due to competition from China, down 35% from its 2024 output of 53,400 tons.

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Archived

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A new investigation by People of Baikal reveals another tactic the Russian military has employed to stem personnel losses: torturing the friends and family of deserters. Journalists reporting from the Transbaikal region spoke to Olga Vtorushina, the mother of a 24-year-old man named Pavel.

On November 2, 2025, masked men kidnapped her son, drove him outside of town, and tortured him with a stun gun, demanding that he help them locate his cousin Pyotr, who’d recently failed to return to his unit. The men who abducted and tortured Pavel wore camouflage uniforms and masks, but Olga said she’d seen them around town and had recognized one as a member of the local military police. She told journalists that the men beat her son and shocked him repeatedly with a stun gun until he passed out several times. Pavel wasn’t released until he telephoned Pyotr and lured him to a meeting where he was later apprehended.

[...]

A 25-year-old contract soldier who deserted his unit when the military ordered him back to duty after he sustained a head injury [...] escaped to his hometown and spent several months in hiding. To find the missing soldier, masked men tracked down his father and tortured him with a stun gun. They also beat his friend. The soldier’s mother told journalists that the assailants were not military police but a search group from her son’s military base. Her son is now in the army’s custody.

[...]

Military police officers tracked down 36-year-old Viktor at his friend’s home. They tased him, broke his nose, stuffed him in the trunk of a car, and drove him 300 miles away. Viktor had failed to return to his unit on time, staying at home to assist his wife, who was expecting their third child any day. She gave birth a week later. Viktor’s mother told People of Baikal that the men who took her son are the same ones who tortured Pavel on November 2.

Similar raids have been reported in towns throughout the Transbaikal region. In Ushmun, for example, masked men were spotted patrolling the streets. According to a local newspaper, these were military police officers. Authorities in Trubachevo and Novoshirokinsky confirmed to People of Baikal by phone that locals had been subjected to “measures of force.”

[...]

Archived

Mounting economic hardship and growing public discontent could push Russia toward internal conflict, a senior Kremlin official has warned.

The stark message comes as inflation, war fatigue, and social divisions deepen across the country.

Alexander Kharichev, head of the Presidential Directorate for Monitoring and Analysing Social Processes, issued the warning in a state-run journal.

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Military over social spending

Rising prices have hit ordinary Russians hard, with food costs climbing well above the national inflation rate. Businesses are struggling to stay afloat, and layoffs and bankruptcies loom large.

Despite the pressure, the Kremlin continues to prioritize military spending over social welfare.

At the same time, Russia’s workforce has been decimated by more than a million war casualties, mostly men of working age, worsening the long-term demographic decline and ageing population.

[...]

Kharichev warned of “fragmentation of society” and the “loss of Russia’s ability to fight for its survival.”

His analysis cited the growing erosion of public trust in government and widening rifts within Russian society.

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Chinese provincial government-backed refiner Yanchang Petroleum is avoiding Russian oil in its latest crude oil tender for deliveries between December and mid-February，two traders with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.

Yanchang, located in the landlocked northern province of Shaanxi, has been a regular buyer of Russian oil, typically taking in one shipment per month, usually Far East export grade ESPO blend or Sokol, one of the traders said.

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A raft of recent western sanctions on Russian oil shipments, including U.S. measures last month against Moscow's top two exporters, has led China's state oil companies and some Indian refiners to avoid buying Russian oil due to concerns about falling foul of secondary sanctions.

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