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THREE PUPILS FROM MARIUPOL ARRESTED BY OCCUPIERS FOR TELEGRAM MESSAGES

This is reported by the Mariupol City Council and publishes an excerpt of a news story by rossmi about the incident.

The occupiers detained three 9th grade students who allegedly "created a negative image of Russia" and "spread nationalist symbols" in a closed tg-group.

"They spit on the V symbol, 'mocked' the St George's ribbons, the Russian tricolour and drew the sign of the Azov battalion", - this is how Russian propagandists describe the "crimes" of the Ukrainian children.

According to the city council, the occupants continue to fight against so-called "extremist materials". They become library books. In particular, historical editions and Ukrainian classics. Earlier, it could be seen that the invaders threw out books even by Lesya Ukrainka.

Recall that according to preliminary estimates, the Russian occupiers destroyed 180 thousand books and 4 libraries in Mariupol.

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Zelenskyi held a telephone conversation today with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. They discussed alternative corridors for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products. The parties agreed to maintain a constructive dialogue regarding the removal of unilateral restrictions by EU member states on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products and agreed on the need to find measures to support Ukrainian farmers.

https://president.gov.ua/news/glava-derzhavi-obgovoriv-iz-prezidentkoyu-yevropejskoyi-komi-86033

Russia 10Y Bond Yield was 13.08 percent on Monday October 2, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity.

Russian government 10yr bonds above 13% yield. Yields were ~10.8% in June and are now above the official interest rate. The rouble is approaching 100 per $ again.

A good week in the finance numbers but Brent oil is still too high, which is no doubt propping up Russia's war crimes machine.

To those who keep saying the "mighty" Russia can fight a long war. The accumulative effects of sanctions, conscription and military demands on infrastructure is causing a slow motion implosion in Russia. Putin is possibly preparing the option to withdraw and announce he won by defeating Ukraine and has fought NATO to defeat an invasion of Russia. THese lines have been emerging on Russia state media for months.

Senior Ukrainian official weighs in on US Congress' move to exclude aid in funding deal

Putin is offering double pay to attract officials to jobs in occupied Ukraine, but many are scared of being killed: report Thibault Spirlet Oct 2, 2023

Russia is facing personnel shortages in occupied regions of Ukraine, per independent outlet Meduza. Meduza cited two officials who described fears of new Ukrainian attacks among Russian officials. Russian officials have died in Ukraine's counteroffensives in the occupied regions, the outlet said.

Russian officials are reluctant to take jobs in occupied regions of Ukraine, despite promises of higher pay, out of fear of Ukrainian attacks, according to a Russian media report.

The threat of more Ukrainian counteroffensives in the annexed regions, which include Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, have made Russian officials reluctant to take jobs there, two sources close to the Kremlin told independent outlet Meduza.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree last September formally annexing the four Ukrainian regions, with plans to bring them closer to Russia and pay their employees double, per the outlet.

But higher pay does not make up for the risk of Ukrainian attacks, the two unnamed officials told Meduza.

Since late last year, Ukraine has retaken parts of eastern Ukraine. An unspecified number of Russian officials, including Alexei Katerinichev, a Russian-installed official in Kherson, have also been killed, per the outlet.

At the same time, an unnamed Russian-installed official appointed to a ministerial role in one of the occupied regions told the outlet that leaving a position there for Russia is considered "desertion," which is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

To make up for the personnel shortages, the Kremlin is holding electoral contests modeled on the "Leaders of Russia" competition, which is seen as a career springboard for Russian officials, Meduza reported, without giving details on the number of participants.

Russia's Defense Ministry also announced last month that people in the four occupied regions will be included for the first time in its conscription campaign.

The draft, which started on October 1 and lasts through the end of the year, aims to call up 130,000 additional soldiers, according to Russian state media outlet TASS.

"So when a Ukrainian tanker with the callsign “Kochevnik” ran into problems with his captured Russian T-72B3—problems local expertise couldn’t immediately solve—he called Russian Uralvagonzavod tech support. And incredibly, the help line actually helped."

Oil prices have fallen back towards nearly $90/barrel in the last few days (for Brent crude).

The EU foreign ministers' meeting in Kyiv adds strength, leadership, and initiative to Europe.

Active European leadership is essential.

The more joint and principled steps in defense, diplomacy, economy, and sanctions we take together, the sooner the war will end in just peace.

Poland handed over a batch of repaired Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

"While others make statements about the future, we act in agreement with the Ukrainian side," the message reads.

Live thread

Ukrainian victory depends on cooperation with Europe, Zelenskiy tells EU foreign ministers in Kyiv A Ukrainian victory in the war with Russia depends on cooperation with the EU, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told EU foreign ministers gathered in Kyiv on Monday.

Zelenskiy, who was speaking after the US Congress left Ukraine war aid out of a spending bill, also underlined the importance of “defence support” for Ukraine during the war, Reuters reports.

Romania foreign minister alleges Russian attacks on Danube ports constitute war crimes 02.10.2023

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania, Luminița Odobescu, called the Russian attacks on the Danube ports in Izmail and Reni war crimes during a conversation with journalists in Kyiv, European Pravda reports.

Romania supports Ukraine and its people in the war against Russia, she stressed.

The official noted that the attacks by the Russian miltiary on civilian infrastructure, in particular on the ports on the Danube near the Romanian border, constitute war crimes.

"What Russia is doing near our border is undermining the Ukrainian economy, food security, including at the global level, and civilian navigation in the Black Sea," Odobescu stated. On September 4, 2023, Ukraine reported that Russian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones fell and detonated on the territory of Romania at night in the area of the Izmail port. This was also confirmed by the State Border Guard Service. The wreckage of drones were found several times in Romania. The Secretary General of NATO stated that the fall of Shaheds in Romania was not a "deliberate attack" . On September 15, the Deputy Chief of Defense Staff of Romania stated that the country is ready to shoot down Russian drones.

On September 22, the President of Romania said that the fall of Russian drones on the territory of the country is a "real problem". Dmytro Grinichenko

September 25, 2023 Influenced by Disinformation: What the U.S. Can Do to Counter Disinformation Operations Del Sanders Peter Roberto

In February and March of 2022, as Russian troops crossed into Ukraine, Russian misinformation concurrently crossed over social media platforms to support them. Russia attempted to promote the idea that Ukraine housed bioweapons plants for the U.S. While the idea was swiftly debunked, it gained traction amongst conspiracy theorists in the U.S. The prevalence of these conspiracy theories in public debate eroded the public’s faith in U.S. institutions, capitalizing on disunity amongst Americans, lack of government efficiency, and lack of institutional transparency. The ability to influence a myriad of population sectors worldwide is the “go-to” tool of 21st century warfare for U.S. competitors. The U.S. must recognize that refilling stockpiles, maintaining nearly 800 bases in 70 countries, and reorganizing the Navy’s carrier posture is not enough to compete in 21st century warfare. Irregular warfare strategies replaced the overt wars of the 20th century. Although the U.S. outspends any country in defense expenditure, increased global connections evened the playing field, enabling irregular warfare operations, especially disinformation campaigns, that cause as much or more damage than a HIMARS barrage. The U.S. must engage Russia, and eventually China, in the information realm, which it all too often confronts from a cyber defense context and not offensive cyber or influencing sentiment. With new tools like “deep fakes” becoming increasingly common on social media, the U.S. must reorganize its efforts to protect and actively cultivate its reputation and control its influence against its competitors. This article outlines three ways to enable the U.S. to effectively compete against adversaries in the information wars.

Russia is a prominent player in the information domain and China is an active learner, both taking advantage of the U.S.’s lack of preparation in the field. Russia has implemented disinformation campaigns since the Cold War, and these activities were revived amidst the various Russian incursions into Ukraine. Russia uses different online groups to implement its recent campaign of lies, including hacktivist groups and the aptly named “Internet Research Agency” formerly owned by notorious Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. In addition, China launched numerous disinformation campaigns against the U.S. and its allies via the People’s Liberation Army. These groups take advantage of the U.S.’s hesitancy to engage strongly in the information operations realm and its common doctrine of viewing cyberwarfare in defensive terms, focusing on denial-of-service attacks. U.S. adversaries also exploit its declining international reputation to expand their influence abroad. To account for the evolving media and technological landscape, the U.S. needs a counter-disinformation strategy that reflects its contemporary position on the world stage, while also reminding the world of our positive values and past achievements.

In irregular warfare the U.S. focus is currently, at best, limited to military information support operations (MISO) regarding the information domain. The U.S. government spends too much energy into the oft-overused tactic of utilizing MISO in a specific locality to maintain or increase positive U.S. sentiment. A way forward in the irregular warfare space is to counter disinformation instead. We can expand beyond the MISO focus and pivot to a full spectrum look in the information domain. The aftermath of the withdrawal from Afghanistan severely diminished the U.S.’s relationship with its partners, which provided an exploitation opportunity for adversaries like Russia. Russia also attacked the U.S. government’s internal credibility by promoting various existing conspiracy theories, like QAnon and its international offshoots, within the U.S. A counter-disinformation strategy for the United States must take into account Russia’s exploitation of both domestic and international distrust. The U.S. can do so by expanding upon the tools that it has in its arsenal, using a culturally informed and nuanced approach to messaging, and accounting for the cultural divisions in the U.S. within our international narrative.

First, the U.S. and its allies must learn how to weaponize transparency. In the days leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials, armed with intelligence on Russian troop movements, began to warn Ukraine and its allies in NATO, the EU, and across the world about the impending attack. As a result, Ukraine saw an outpouring of support from the international community, one that saw even a rising adversary like China abstaining on UN votes. In addition, the warnings also likely bolstered U.S. support for Ukraine. The United States must learn from this declassification campaign and create a concise and factually accurate strategic messaging campaign against Russian disinformation, including Russia’s promotion of conspiracy theories and divides within the United States. This approach allows the U.S. to counter Russian disinformation operations in a way that preserves the democratic spirit of the U.S.

Second, the United States must look at the information, social media, AI, and machine learning space as an opportunity, not an uncharted domain to abstain from out of fear or skepticism. Other states, such as Russia, exploit these tools offensively. Many in the U.S. security sphere are not technologically proficient regarding social media or AI and view these mediums with disdain or skepticism. Instead, we should increase our training and focus on these tools just as much as our adversaries. Additionally, the whole of the U.S. government must become serious about exploiting the information domain and stop viewing every non-military threat through the myopic lens of a cyber attack. The information domain is wildly complex and rapidly evolving, and the United States must facilitate interoperability and communication between the various entities involved in information operations, both offensively and defensively.

Third, the U.S. can further bolster these efforts by having its various special operations forces, who already specialize in information operations, build upon their capabilities. One way is by partnering with private sector partners to identify cultural trends and potential local partners to spread counter disinformation operations. By using tech that utilizes statistical and algorithmic models concerning regression, causality, and natural language processing, Washington can be better empowered to identify influential topics and actors in networks to deal with disinformation accurately. This would amplify U.S. counter disinformation efforts, but when accompanied with special operations deployments, proven statistical solutions can be a force multiplier and allow for greater mission success when they conduct strategic messaging. Furthermore, the U.S. can use the junction of sentiment analysis programs and special operations-enacted strategic messaging campaigns offensively to counter Russian and Chinese influence amongst partner or emerging states. Partners like Ukraine see vast success with this strategy and could offer a path for U.S. policymakers to learn how to navigate the modern media landscape.

The U.S. can forge a new path in combating the waves of online disinformation coming from Russia and other near-peer competitors. Washington must learn to develop new strategies to change the narrative and promote its interests in an evolving media landscape filled with emerging technologies and irregular warfare doctrines that enable resurgent powers. The days when the might of militaries alone made right are long gone. The ability to influence mass amounts of people is now proving just as influential as a NATO defense commitment, and the United States must treat the information space with the same respect.

Del Sanders is a M.S. candidate at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations. Del is a former U.S. Army Intelligence Analyst with 16 years’ experience working in Special Operations, a member of the National Security Fellowship graduate program at Seton Hall University, providing research and policy recommendations to the Department of Defense this past academic year, an Associate Editor with the Journal of Diplomacy & International Relations, and currently is a manager at FNA, a learning software company within the national security sector.

Peter Roberto, M.A. is the former Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Diplomacy & International Relations at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations. He was a member of the National Security Fellowship graduate program at Seton Hall University, and provided research and policy recommendations to the State Department and Department of Defense. He held internships with The Counterterrorism Group and the U.S. House of Representatives. Peter has been published by the Journal of Diplomacy & International Relations, Foreign Policy Association, HSToday, and Small Wars Journal.

ISW: Russia seeks to disrupt Western support for Ukraine via disinformation Despite the UK denying plans to send military instructors to Ukraine after earlier comments, Moscow insists the Western support for Ukraine escalates the.

BY IRYNA VOICHUK 02/10/2023

Statements by UK officials regarding increased military aid to Ukraine prompted Russian accusations that such support risks escalating the war, despite the officials walking back their comments. According to the Institute for the Study of War, these claims are part of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine.

On 30 September, newly appointed UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps told the Telegraph he discussed moving more training and production to Ukraine with Army leaders. However, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on 1 October the UK has no immediate plans to deploy instructors there, though training in Ukraine may be possible in the future. The UK would not send soldiers to fight, Sunak clarified.

In response, Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev called Shapps’ earlier statement a “push” toward “World War III.” Medvedev often makes alarmist claims portraying Western aid as escalatory, part of a Russian operation to discourage such support, per the ISW.

Some Russian military bloggers also baselessly alleged the UK wants to help Ukraine train for operations in Crimea, spreading more disinformation. The bloggers point to Ukrainian strikes in Crimea as evidence of Western aid for such plans, but Ukraine likely aims to disrupt Russian supply lines amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, ISW said,

“The Russian information space continues to falsely portray Western aid to Ukraine as escalatory in order to discourage continued Western support for Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War concluded.

#France triples production of #Caesar self-propelled howitzers. #Nexter Group Director Nicolas Chamousset announces expansion at Defense Industry Forum. Partnerships with #Ukraine for ammunition, drones, #weapons, and cybersecurity. #Ukraine #RussiaIsATerroristState #War #NATO

Salaries of prisoners to be paid to their families: President signs law UKRAINE, MON, OCTOBER 02 AUTHOR: DARIA DMYTRIIEVA

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a law to enhance social protection for servicemen, police officers, and others. The Parliament adopted the law on August 24, referring to draft No. 9638 on the Parliament's website.

Key provisions of the law include:

Preservation of Financial Support:

Maintenance of financial support for ordinary and commanding officers of the civil protection service who have fallen into captivity or disappeared under exceptional circumstances, along with the possibility of payments to their families. This does not apply to ordinary and commanding officers of the civil protection service who voluntarily surrendered or left their service locations. Clarification of Compensation Procedures:

Clarification of the procedure for paying monetary compensation to military personnel and police officers for unused vacation days. Clarification of the procedure for paying monetary compensation for unused vacation days in the event of the death of military personnel and police officers. Improvement of the procedure for paying one-time financial assistance upon discharge from military service. Additionally, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Ruslan Stefanchuk, stated that the Parliament has already adopted a series of laws to protect veterans. Shortly, lawmakers plan to consider a bill providing unpaid leave of up to 60 calendar days for employees who start working after being discharged from military service.

Another project to be considered aims to simplify the procedure for obtaining combatant status, introduce a unified state registry of military personnel, and establish a separate status for defenders of Ukraine.

How long can Ukrainians stay abroad without losing IDP payments: explanation UKRAINE, MON, OCTOBER 02, 2023 AUTHOR: DARIA DMYTRIIEVA

Ukrainians with internally displaced persons (IDP) status may lose the right to payments in Ukraine after traveling abroad. The departure of IDPs is recorded in a particular registry. The lawyer Stron Legal Services, Mariana Havryshko, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, explained the time limit for staying abroad without losing payments in Ukraine and the trips exempt from restrictions.

Starting from August 1, 2023, specific changes were made regarding payments to Ukrainians as internally displaced persons. The First Deputy Minister of Social Policy, Daryna Marchak, announced this.

According to her statement, from August 1, financial assistance will not be provided to IDPs who stay abroad for more than 30 consecutive calendar days without justified reasons supported by documentation.

According to the lawyer, justified reasons may include:

Business trips or internships; Medical treatment or rehabilitation; Care for a sick child, child recovery, and others. "These innovations are because Ukrainians who received IDP status went abroad and additionally received asylum from a foreign state. Accordingly, such individuals receive financial assistance directly from two states," notes Mariana Havryshko.

However, refugees who have left the country cannot acquire the rights of internally displaced persons because they have chosen external protection, not internal.

"Moreover, the First Deputy Minister of Social Policy stated that the time and place of departure of Ukrainians with IDP status are recorded in a special registry. Therefore, the period of stay abroad exceeding 30 days in a row without valid reasons will result in canceling payments for Ukrainians with the status of internally displaced persons," warns the expert.

Earlier, it was reported that Ukrainian refugees living abroad can apply for IDP payments upon returning to Ukraine.

In August 2023, checks on the places of residence of people with IDP status began in Ukraine. As a result of this identification, some Ukrainians may have their social payments canceled.

If anyone thinks Britain is no longer able to wield hard power in defence of our values, just ask the Ukrainian soldiers driving British tanks or firing our long-range missiles.

This is the best country in the world and we’re using foreign policy to benefit the British people 🇬🇧

Russian General Staff Chief rumored to support withdrawal from Tokmak amidst heavy losses Sunday, October 1

Russian Telegram channel the Kremlin's Tobacco Box claims that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, is planning to withdraw troops from the city of Tokmak due to heavy losses. In the coming month, the Russian army may possibly make a "gesture of goodwill" on the Zaporizhzhia front by fleeing from Tokmak. The channel assures that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, allegedly supports this scenario. According to its information, not everyone in the Russian General Staff supports the withdrawal of troops from Tokmak, which is being approached by Ukrainian forces. However, Gerasimov supposedly believes that within the next few weeks, these individuals will change their position due to the enormous losses that the Russian army is suffering in its attempt to maintain control of the aforementioned area.

"Conflict within the General Staff continues regarding whether our troops should be withdrawn from Tokmak. At the moment, according to information from three sources in the General Staff, opponents of such a decision are prevailing. And Valery Gerasimov is prepared to 'temporarily accept' the fact that we will not be leaving the city for the time being," writes Z-channel, citing sources in the Russian General Staff. According to its information, Gerasimov supposedly intends to revisit this issue in 2-3 weeks when the significant losses suffered by the Russian army in this combat zone will force those generals who currently oppose the retreat to reconsider.

"The forecasts of the Chief of the General Staff regarding the defense of Tokmak 'remain bleak'. In a recent conversation with several colleagues, Gerasimov said that the generals who do not want to retreat are likely to 'come to their senses when we have 10,000 dead and crippled soldiers'. According to the head of the General Staff, despite this, it will still be necessary to retreat from Tokmak, but it will be more difficult to hold onto Melitopol and several other important cities," writes the Russian channel.

According to its information, the statement about the 10,000 casualties is not a figure of speech or an exaggeration.

"The enemy has gathered such forces that we could lose even more people. And we could lose them in just three weeks to a month," the channel writes.

There are currently no signs of the Russians preparing to retreat from Tokmak, which has strategic importance in maintaining the land corridor to Crimea as a logistical hub. On the contrary, Russian forces are mobilizing all available reserves to this area in an attempt to halt the counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, Ukrainian forces are approximately 20 kilometers away from the city.

Western generals and military analysts praise Ukrainian Armed Forces: 7 Quotes for Day of Defenders October 1, 2023

In the 19 months of Russia's war on Ukraine, prominent Western generals and military experts have repeatedly acknowledged the remarkable performance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the face of complex combat operations.

For the Day of Defenders, NV recalls several quotes that reflect the respect and admiration for all those who defend Ukraine.

1.  "In my view, the Ukrainians are probably the best army in the world at the moment. It's not even probably; they are the best army in the world. They are the most experienced at modern warfare, they have demonstrated that over the past months. We can all learn a lot from them."
   

2.  "The way Ukraine has conducted this counteroffensive [since the summer of 2023] is very impressive. The Ukrainians have adapted very well. They changed their actions as soon as they understood the complexity and difficulties of these defensive structures [in the south]. They are making progress. Slowly, of course, but it is significant progress. So I get excited again when I see what the Ukrainians have done. They are constantly innovating, adapting, and learning. I recently wrote an article in response to these pessimistic reports [about the pace of Ukrainian progress] and said, 'Stop criticizing and do everything you can to help the Ukrainians succeed.
   

US military leader, former CIA Director, former commander of international coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and former head of the United States Central Command, retired U.S. four-star general David Petraeus, in an interview with NV, Sept. 2023.

3.  "They [Ukrainian Armed Forces] have had to take risks and experiment with things they might not know work or not, and they have become a battle lab for their own forces, and that showed us the way. I regret the circumstances that it had to happen, but it has shown the way about how things have to be done in the 21st Century in a new battlefield."
   

Former UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace in an interview with Sky News during his tenure, July 2023.

4.  "This is a David and Goliath battle [...], and Ukraine has displayed incredible ingenuity, and Russia is on the back foot. It's lost nearly 300,000 people killed and wounded, and it's lost thousands of tanks. The idea that this war is somehow neat and tidy, and you can predict it and plan it to the ninth degree is nonsense."
   

The UK’s Chief of the Defense Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, in a speech at the Defense and Security Equipment 2023 event in Sept. 2023.

5.  “Ukraine fought back with determination and smarts against Russia, halting Moscow’s advances and then driving Russian troops back from roughly half of the territory they seized in the last year and a half. As a result, Ukraine’s military looks far more powerful and Russia’s looks far weaker than virtually everyone expected.”
   

Chair of Strategic Studies and Head of the School of International Relations at the University of St. Andrews, Phillips O’Brien, for Foreign Affairs in July 2023.

6.  “During each training rotation, brigades are usually given six combat missions of different types. For each ‘battle,’ planning takes several hours, the preparation of forces and rehearsals require additional time, and then the battles themselves are played out over a maneuver area slightly larger than Rhode Island. The very toughest of these missions is a deliberate attack against a defending enemy — the same kind of operation the Ukrainians have been conducting in an actual war for months. […] The great military theoretician Carl von Clausewitz once wrote that everything in war is simple, but the simplest things are difficult. Millions of military practitioners who have combat experience would agree, and most pundits who have not been on a battlefield rarely understand the implications of other factors of warfare: new equipment, conducting a difficult mission for the first time, green (inexperienced — ed.) troops, weather […] It should come as no surprise that Ukraine’s army, after being given a significant amount of new, Western equipment and having a relatively short time to train at European bases, may not be executing the rapid, Desert Storm-like offensive many expected. Especially given that offensive is directed against a significantly entrenched Russian force. […] But I remain convinced that the Ukrainian Army will continue to learn during the execution of their large offensive operation in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and the Donbas. Patience, understanding of the dynamics of war, and continued support will remain critical to the completion of this mission.”
   

Former commander of US Army Europe, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) in a column for The Bulwark in Aug. 2023.

7.  “This war is being fought by two very different militaries using very different strategies […] Ukraine’s military [at the start of full-scale war] had the doctrine, leadership, training, culture, and morale necessary to effectively employ combined arms maneuver at scale. While combined arms maneuvers are important for any environment, it is especially important in cities. Urban warfare is the ultimate test of combined arms maneuvers. The side that can better integrate artillery, armor, infantry, engineers, and intelligence has an advantage. The history of urban warfare consistently proves this to be a fundamental reality. Over twelve months of war, Ukrainian forces have simply been better at conducting combined arms maneuvers than their Russian counterparts.”
   

The Modern War Institute, US Military Academy (West Point) researchers John Spencer and Liam Collins, authors of a report on the results of the first year of war in Feb. 2023.

Ukrainian top volunteer shares insights on counteroffensive, elections and prolonged war KYIV, MON, SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

AUTHOR: MILAN LIELICH, KATERYNA DANISHEVSKA In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, one of the top Ukrainian volunteers, former showman, and former mayoral candidate of Kyiv, Serhiy Prytula, talked about the needs of the Ukrainian military during the counteroffensive, the production of TV series funded by the state, elections during wartime, and the involvement of volunteers in politics.

Read the abridged text version of the interview below. The full conversation is available on the video.

Serhiy Prytula is one of the most famous Ukrainian volunteers. The charitable foundation he founded has already raised over 5.65 billion hryvnias (over 150 million dollars) during the full-scale war. The funds are used both to support the army and for humanitarian needs, especially in the frontline and occupied territories of Ukraine.

Prytula's foundation is known for its "mega-fundraising" campaigns for large-scale purchases for the needs of the Ukrainian army. For example, last year Prytula announced a fundraiser to purchase three Turkish drones Bayraktar. The target amount was 500 million hryvnias (13.6 million dollars), but within three days, Ukrainians donated 600 million hryvnias, and the manufacturing company eventually donated three Bayraktar drones to the foundation for free. So, the funds collected at that time were used for another mega-project - the purchase of an ICEYE reconnaissance satellite along with access to a constellation of other satellites' databases.

About donations Prytula explains that he is currently observing a trend of decreasing donation levels. He attributes this primarily to economic reasons because, during the war, Ukrainians certainly did not become richer; instead, they had to cover their daily household needs. "Attacks on the energy system have led to people spending a lot of money on heating and lighting their houses in November, December, and January," says the volunteer.

He also notes a decline in donations from abroad, which is particularly important for the foundation since many of its purchases are made in foreign currency. The reason for this is similar - Ukrainians who were forced to emigrate will also have many household needs and, consequently, fewer opportunities to donate. However, Prytula emphasizes that if the donations to his foundation affect not only Ukrainian emigrants (as in the case of the explosion at the Kakhovska HPP by Russian saboteurs) but also foreigners in general, the share of foreign donations increases significantly.

Forecast for fall and winter In Prytula's opinion, the current fall and upcoming winter for Ukraine will not be easier than the past ones because Russians will likely resort to systematic shelling of Ukrainian energy facilities again.

"The longer the war lasts, the percentage of people who believe that military operations will end within the next month, two, or six months constantly decreases. There is no reason to believe that this will end by the end of this year. And I don't want to take on the unnecessary responsibility of making predictions in the wrong place. However, the work of our foundation is planned with the understanding that the war will not end next year either," says Prytula.

About the needs of the Ukrainian army Among the current needs of the Ukrainian army during the counteroffensive, which his foundation provides and plans to provide, Prytula particularly highlights resources for demining, FPV drones, electronic warfare equipment, and kamikaze drones. There is constant competition with the Russians in this area. "It's a race in the field of miltech, where we need to mobilize to the maximum both on the state level and in terms of support for the volunteer community," says the volunteer.

About the Western position Prytula regularly communicates with representatives of Western partner countries, including parliamentarians and officials. In his opinion, there is a lack of understanding in the West of how the Russian-Ukrainian war should end.

"We often hear from our allies that 'we will stand with Ukraine until the end.' But there is no final understanding of how much is needed and what the end should be. The worst thing that is happening now is when they pass the ball to us and say, 'You determine what victory means for you.' When we say what victory means for us, they say it's not that simple, there are certain red lines. There is no obvious unity of views, for example, regarding the military solution to the issue of de-occupation of Crimea; for many, this is a red line," he says.

About budget-funded series The field of culture and the activities of the relevant ministry in Ukraine regularly become the center of loud scandals. In particular, during the summer, state funding for the production of numerous entertainment series caused a major scandal. Many Ukrainians believe that such expenditures are inappropriate during the Russian aggression when every hryvnia should work for victory. Prytula, who gained his popularity as a TV host and comedian before fully immersing himself in volunteering, is categorical in this regard: there should be no state expenses for the production of entertainment content.

However, it is unquestionably important to fight against the Russians not only on the battlefield but also in the information field, according to the volunteer. "They are advancing their narratives, and this is a war of narratives. Should the Ukrainian state respond symmetrically or asymmetrically to this? Yes, in my opinion, it should. Otherwise, we will lose the information space, and someone else will fill the vacuum," says Prytula.

"Is funding entertainment content from the state budget an adequate response to Russian information policy, Russian narratives, some movies, or series of entertainment nature? Absolutely not!"

"What is entertainment content? You want to entertain people and make money from it. Please find a private investor, shoot with their money, sell it to channels, and cinemas, make a profit and give the investor their share, and make money for yourself," adds the volunteer.

About elections and politics Closer to the end of his career in show business, Serhiy Prytula tried his hand at politics: in 2019, he ran for the Ukrainian Parliament as a member of the Holos (Voice) party list (but did not become a deputy), and in 2020, he ran for the position of Mayor of Kyiv, where he secured third place.

Prytula is staunchly against holding elections in Ukraine until the end of the war (RBC-Ukraine has already covered the situation around the elections and the position of Ukraine's Western partners on this matter).

"I personally believe that holding elections during a war is a maximum absurd. Firstly, what legitimacy can there be in this expression of will, and how can it be ensured abroad for 8 million Ukrainian refugees? It's impossible.

Internally displaced persons won't vote massively for some reason. And the people in the occupied territories, I apologize, are our citizens; will they have the opportunity to vote? No, they won't. And those soldiers who defend us, without their votes, can we even say that these elections took place? Therefore, these manipulations and this turmoil should be stopped. People are nervous; people don't want it. I don't know anyone among my acquaintances, friends, who would say that it's absolutely necessary to hold elections," he says.

And even if the war continues for several more years, elections should still not be held, asserts the volunteer. He adds that with the money intended for conducting elections, a considerable amount of necessary resources could be purchased for the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine.

One of the most popular questions for Prytula (as well as for other top volunteers) is whether he plans to convert his level of recognition and trust into a political future. There have long been discussions in political circles about the creation of one or more volunteer-military-veteran parties.

"I don't know volunteers from the circle of people I communicate with who are engaged in volunteering to use it as a springboard into politics. Because the main mass of volunteers I communicate with are people who have been involved in volunteering since 2014, just like me," Prytula says. However, he admits that many of today's volunteers may still try their hand at politics in the future and considers it an entirely reasonable decision. "Volunteers have demonstrated Ukrainians' ability to self-organize. These are people who show leadership, people others trust to manage budgets. Because they shape a certain budget, these are people who can organize processes, and manage projects. In other words, these are good people who can enter various government bodies, local self-government, or legislation," summarizes Prytula.