this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2025
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xkcd #3117: Replication Crisis

Title text:

Maybe encouraging the publication of null results isn't enough--maybe we need a journal devoted to publishing results the study authors find personally annoying.

Transcript:

Transcript will show once it’s been added to explainxkcd.com

Source: https://xkcd.com/3117/

explainxkcd for #3117

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[–] Hupf@feddit.org 7 points 7 hours ago
[–] MojoMcJojo@lemmy.world 84 points 20 hours ago

I once experienced this firsthand. The postdoc kept coming by, trying to find out how we were messing up something he had written a paper on. Eventually, he tried to reproduce it himself. No one could reproduce it, not even him.

[–] ksigley@lemmy.world 32 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

There really is an xkcd for everything.

[–] eager_eagle@lemmy.world 22 points 19 hours ago (2 children)

is there an xkcd about there being an xkcd about everything though?

[–] Skua@kbin.earth 29 points 17 hours ago (1 children)
[–] jve@lemmy.world 19 points 13 hours ago (1 children)

https://xkcd.com/1019

For those that don’t want to type it out.

[–] FundMECFS@quokk.au 3 points 7 hours ago

Thats a good one aswell.

[–] ksigley@lemmy.world 1 points 10 hours ago

Oh, I don't pretend to have read every single one. But it's odd how regularly there is a topic of conversation with a relevant xkcd panel.

[–] tal@lemmy.today 34 points 22 hours ago (2 children)

I liked once reading an article that showed that with some major findings from important scientists that were later shown to have a wrong value, it wasn't that a second study promptly "snapped" to the correct values. Instead, over time, subsequent studies incrementally moved to the right value.

On one hand, this is good in that the process does ultimately work, and we got to the right value, though it could take quite some years.

On the other hand, this is embarrassing, because it suggests that people doing follow-up studies to a prestigious person second-guess their own results ("Doctor So-and-So can't possibly be wrong...it must be me in error") and aren't willing to report the full deviation, so they'll bang on an experiment until they get a value that isn't that far off and report that.

I can't seem to find reference to it in the explainxkcd Wikipedia articles, but I remember being intrigued.

[–] agamemnonymous@sh.itjust.works 21 points 20 hours ago

On the other hand, this is embarrassing, because it suggests that people doing follow-up studies to a prestigious person second-guess their own results

Some people have started distinguishing between "science", i.e. the scientific method, and "the science', i.e. the total collective body of results.

"Science" is precious and pure. It's never right or wrong, it just approaches correctness as it progresses.

"The science" is always inherently suspect since that's how "science" works, but it's frequently treated as indisputable fact. This is problematic for a number of reasons, and the replication crisis is at the top of that list.

[–] Bustedknuckles@lemmy.world 12 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

The most famous version of this might be Millikan's oil drop experiments to measure the mass of an electron. His notebook is full of qualitative judgments of his measured values and which ones to include in the final determination. The mass of an electron settled down pretty smoothly

[–] tal@lemmy.today 8 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 14 hours ago)

Ah, yeah, this sounds like it's making a similar point, though whatever article I read long post-dated Feynman.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_drop_experiment

In a commencement address given at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in 1974 (and reprinted in Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman! in 1985 as well as in The Pleasure of Finding Things Out in 1999), physicist Richard Feynman noted:[21][22]

We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops, and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It's a little bit off because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It's interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of an electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than Millikan's, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn't they discover the new number was higher right away? It's a thing that scientists are ashamed of—this history—because it's apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan's, they thought something must be wrong—and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number close to Millikan's value they didn't look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that ...

I've read Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!, but that won't be what I'm recalling, as I'm pretty sure that that didn't have graphs. I'm thinking of an article that I think was on the Web, and had graphs showing values over time walking toward the correct value. I do think that it dealt with the hard sciences, not social sciences, so it might have included that oil drop experiment, and I think that it had several different experiments.

[–] Donjuanme@lemmy.world 10 points 22 hours ago

Replication failed successfully.

Or failed replications replicated successfully (could be useful, but was originally marked as failed to replicate)