As background: the Kaufmann report that prompted all this is a load of absolute garbage. As discussed fairly extensively on social media (example).
As for Aella's addition: oh god why did I read this?
The methodology was apparently running a "Big Kink Survey" which was "trending on TikTok" and had "very good SEO". I suppose this is the right data needed to draw conclusions about what rate 14 year olds are transgender.
The whole this is also full of weird gender essentialism (I never want to read the word "biofemales" again).
I think this is evidence for an increasing split between afabs and amabs
But don't worry she's very pro trans (JK Rowling sense):
Despite having been cancelled by the more radical subgroups of trans people, I’m nevertheless very pro trans.
Which is why she wants to make a massive reach and be concerned that maybe trans people are getting too much healthcare:
I think it’s unlikely that 11.5% of afabs are actually trans men in a way that would last through adulthood. If my data is measuring any real trend in the world, and if that trend meaningfully increases permanent changes to bodies, then this high percentage might actually be quite bad.
... Nevermind that her data doesn't even touch on stuff like rate of HRT, or regret rate; these "concerns" are all pulled out of thin air.
Like dear cis people are you OK? Is society not transphobic enough for you? :'(
Are you worried that if a teenager is allowed to explore their gender a little that it will cause a bunch of precocious little cis girls to accidentally glance at a vial of testosterone the wrong way and grow a fantastic beard overnight?
When I started estrogen (later than I should have and fuck you Idaho) I was absolutely 100% sure that it was the right thing to try, and that I'd stop if I didn't like it. Never looked back (estrogen is tasty and I encourage everyone to try it at least once), and I had years before there was much you could call permanent.
But of course it's not the "permanent changes to bodies" that made me a 6ft tall amazonian beauty that people like Aella are concerned about. "What if we accidentally trans one of the cis??" fundamentally assumes it is OK to accidentally withhold critical medicine from countless trans people just to be "safe".