cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/29903770

Consider your morning cup of coffee. Your kettle’s heating element — or flame on a stove — warms up water that you infuse with beans and pour into a mug. Maybe you get busy and the cup of joe sits there for a while, releasing its heat into the atmosphere of the room, until it reaches equilibrium with the indoor temperature. In other words: It got cold.

Now consider that the expansive Southern Ocean, which wraps around Antarctica, could one day do much the same thing. Since the Industrial Revolution kicked off, humans have dialed up the kettle to its max, adding extraordinary amounts of heat into the atmosphere, more than 90 percent of which has been absorbed by the sea. (It’s also taken up a quarter of our CO2 emissions.) Under climate change, the Southern Ocean has been storing warmth which, like your morning jolt, can’t stay there forever, and will someday return to the atmosphere.

New modeling suggests that this “burp” of heat — the scientists called it that, by the way — could be abrupt. In a scenario where humanity eventually reduces its greenhouse gas emissions and then goes “net negative,” finding ways to remove those planet-warming pollutants from the atmosphere, global temperatures fall. But suddenly the Southern Ocean belches its accumulated heat, leading to a rate of planetary warming similar to what humanity is causing right now. And the thermal burping would continue for at least a century.

Put another way: According to this modeling, at least, humans figure out a way to reverse climate change, only to see the Southern Ocean essentially restart it. While there would be nothing our descendants could do to stop this — since the warming would be driven by already stored heat — the calculations are yet another urgent call to reduce that pollution as quickly and dramatically as possible.

This sudden eructation is not a sure thing, however — it’s the prediction of a model. But it’s a step toward understanding how the planet could respond as humans continue to manipulate the climate, both warming and cooling it. “The question is: How will the climate system, and specifically the ocean, react to scenarios where we remove CO2 from the atmosphere, and when we have a net global cooling effect?” said Svenja Frey, an oceanography PhD student at Germany’s GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and coauthor of the paper.

The Southern Ocean may encircle the frozen continent of Antarctica, but it’s very effective at storing heat: It alone holds around 80 percent of the warmth that’s taken up by all the oceans. Some of this comes from currents that transport relatively toasty waters south, but also lots of upwelling in the Southern Ocean brings cold water to the surface to be warmed up.

The skies above the Southern Ocean are also somewhat less reflective than elsewhere around the globe. Cargo ships and industries in the Northern Hemisphere spew air pollution in the form of aerosols, which themselves bounce solar energy back into the cosmos and help brighten clouds, which reflect still more. That cooling phenomenon has vied, in a sense, with the warming that’s come from the burning of fossil fuels. “That competition hasn’t been as prevalent over the Southern Hemisphere, because it’s this slightly more pristine atmosphere,” said Ric Williams, an ocean and climate scientist at the University of Liverpool, who studies the Southern Ocean but wasn’t involved in the paper.

In the scenario the researchers modeled, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases by 1 percent every year until the total amount is double what the planet had before the Industrial Revolution. Then negative emissions technologies reduce the carbon concentration by 0.1 percent annually. (The study didn’t look a specific techniques, but one option is direct air capture of CO2, though this remains expensive and limited in scale.) In response, the atmosphere, land, and oceans cool.

But something starts brewing in the Southern Ocean. Its surface becomes colder, but also saltier due to the formation of new sea ice: When sea water freezes, it rejects its salt, which is then absorbed into the surrounding waters and makes the surface layer heavier. “At the same time, we have these warm, deeper waters,” Frey said. “At some point, the water column becomes unstable, and that’s when we have the deep convection event.”

In other words, a burp. It’s just one way that our planet’s extraordinarily complex and intertwining systems might respond to rising and falling emissions in the centuries ahead. “There’s very large uncertainty in the Earth system response to net-negative emissions — we don’t understand that very well,” said Simon Fraser University climate scientist Kirsten Zickfeld, who studies these dynamics but wasn’t involved in the new paper. “We may well encounter surprises along the way, as this paper shows.”

To be clear, in this scenario, removing atmospheric carbon significantly reduces global temperatures, even factoring in the burp. And the faster we move away from fossil fuels, the less CO2 we’ll have to remove down the line. “Doing negative emissions and reducing our carbon load in the atmosphere is a good thing,” Williams said. “I would just add that, rather than do negative emissions, it’s better not to do the positive emissions in the first place.”

archived (Wayback Machine)

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/45245084

Archived

China has transformed the Tibetan Plateau, one of the world’s most fragile environments, into a zone of extreme ecological stress under its state‑centric model of infrastructure expansion, militarisation, and resource extraction, reported the IANS new service Oct 6, citing Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy. The centre has accused China of engaging in ‘extractive colonialism’ in Tibet, with forced relocation of close to one million Tibetans.

The group’s report, published ahead of the UN’s climate change conference COP30 in November in Brazil, has said Tibet must no longer remain the blind spot of global environmental governance as the crisis unfolding on the ‘Roof of the World’ is already shaping the future of water, food, and energy security across the Indo‑Pacific and beyond.

The centre’s new Stockholm Paper, titled as ‘Wither Tibet in the Climate Crisis Agenda?’ has brought together more than 20 international experts to examine the Tibetan Plateau’s accelerating ecological breakdown and its far‑reaching implications for Asia’s water security, regional stability, and global climate governance.

Noting that the Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the ‘Third Pole’, is warming at more than twice the global average, the report has warned that its glaciers are retreating, permafrost is thawing, and grasslands are degrading, threatening the delicate water systems that sustain nearly two billion people across South and Southeast Asia.

The report has expressed alarm that despite this planetary importance, Tibet remains largely absent from international climate diplomacy, including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and successive COP negotiations.

[...]

The report has described this as “extractive colonialism”, a process in which the costs of global sustainability are borne by one of the planet’s most vulnerable ecosystems.

The resulting pollution, deforestation, and cultural displacement is found to undermine both environmental justice and human security, with the human dimension of Tibet’s transformation being equally severe.

The report has found that close to one million Tibetans have been forcibly relocated since the year 2000 under programs justified as ecological protection or poverty alleviation. What is more, many have been resettled multiple times, often without fair compensation or sustainable livelihoods. These relocations, together with demographic engineering and assimilationist education policies, erode cultural identity and weaken the traditional stewardship that has preserved Tibet’s high‑altitude ecology for centuries.

The paper has called for Tibet to be treated as a frontline of the global climate emergency, comparable in urgency to the Arctic or low‑lying island states. It has pointed out that the plateau’s stability is essential to monsoon patterns, biodiversity corridors, and continental climate regulation.

The report has presented a 10‑Point Framework for Global Action designed to embed Tibet within international climate cooperation.

The paper has stressed that protecting Tibet is not a political act but an ecological imperative that transcends national borders. Its degradation threatens Asia’s hydrological balance, undermines global carbon stability, and jeopardizes the livelihoods of nearly one‑third of humanity, the report has noted.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/45227919

Archived

[...]

For the first time, China set a specific target for reducing emissions. However, it falls short of what analysts say is needed to meet the Paris goal of limiting average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), compared to the 1850s.

Xi announced in a video message to a U.N. climate meeting in September that China would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035, and would strive to do even better than that.

Modeling by multiple climate experts shows that China would need to cut emissions by around 30% for the world to be on track to the Paris goal.

“This is disappointing as China has the opportunity to decarbonize faster,” Norah Zhang, an analyst at Climate Action Tracker, said after Xi’s announcement.

Previously, China had not pledged to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, it promised to reduce its emissions relative to the size of its economy — so they could still grow but at a slower pace than the economy. Its goal has been to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/5451316

Background

The river Drina is formed by the confluence of the Montenegrin rivers Tara and Piva at the border with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), in an area popular for rafting and angling.

The Buk Bijela hydropower plant - one of 14 dams planned on the upper Drina and its tributaries - is planned on the Drina within BiH, with its reservoir stretching 11 kilometres upstream to the Montenegrin border.

A larger version of Buk Bijela has been disputed since the 1970s due to its impacts on the protected Tara canyon in Montenegro – both a UNESCO World Heritage site and part of the Durmitor National Park.

The current version is being pushed by Elektroprivreda Republike Srpske (ERS), a public utility owned by the Republika Srpska entity. It would still be extremely damaging, especially as the Foča and Paunci hydropower plants are planned further downstream as part of the same complex. A fourth plant, the 44 MW Sutjeska plant, was also planned but has been abandoned.

Legal challenges on environmental permitting

Buk Bijela has repeatedly been challenged by civil society organisations and the Republic of Montenegro, due to Republika Srpska’s attempts to move forward with the project on the basis of an old and inadequate Environmental impact assessment (EIA).

After decisions by UNESCO and the Espoo Convention, and a mediation process led by the Energy Community Secretariat, in 2024 a new EIA process started. However, the screening study shows that Buk Bijela’s impacts will be assessed on their own in the main study, not in combination with the other plants in the Upper Drina complex. And some of the other plants planned in the area will be excluded from the cumulative impact assessment section of the EIA, undermining the whole point.

The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity and civil society organisations have questioned whether a new EIA process should be starting at all, as constitutional issues remain unresolved.

Chinese companies interested

Republika Srpska signed a memorandum on construction of the project with China’s AVIC-ENG in July 2017. But it was reported in 2023 that three other Chinese companies – Dongfang, Sinohydro and China Energy Engineering Corporation had submitted offers to build the project, in a closed procedure without a call for tenders. Later in the year, local media reported that the companies were concerned about the project’s constitutional issues and as of early September 2025, no contracts appear to have been signed.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank have both confirmed that they will not finance the project. A 2021 World Bank report found a number of deficiencies in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) for the project and proposed a complete redesign.

[...]

A new environmental impact assessment procedure started in 2024 but looks set to exclude most of the cumulative impacts of planned dams in the area.

A legal dispute is ongoing on whether the Republika Srpska entity needs to obtain state-level consent to issue concessions for the project, while civil society organizations criticize authorities over a lack of information available to the public on the project’s feasibility.

[...]

Currently unaccounted for, unremediated discharge from old mines can transport CO2 from bedrock to the atmosphere

In research presented last week at GSA Connects 2025 in San Antonio, Texas, USA, Dr. Dorothy Vesper, a geochemist at West Virginia University, found that those abandoned mines pose another risk: continuous CO2 emissions from water that leaks out even decades or centuries after mining stops.

• Satellite data show at least 27 new rare earth mines have opened across Laos since 2022, mostly in protected areas and many within the Mekong River Basin, raising transboundary pollution risks for Vietnam and the wider Mekong system.
• Though rare earth mining is banned in Laos, operations — often funded by Chinese investors — continue under local-level permissions, reflecting weak oversight and growing Chinese influence as Laos seeks to boost its resource exports.
• Past incidents of chemical spills and fish die-offs have already harmed communities in northern and northeastern Laos, yet limited press freedom and civic space mean contamination and environmental impacts remain largely unreported and unmonitored.
• Experts warn that a rare earth mining boom could have severe ecological and social consequences, including deforestation, loss of livelihoods, and toxic pollution, with local communities powerless against unregulated mining backed by local elites and foreign capital.

Madagascar’s landscape tells a story of deep time: ancient rifting and geological tilting sculpted the island’s dramatic topography and steered its rivers, setting the stage for the evolution of its extraordinary biodiversity.

A new study published in Science Advances reveals that Madagascar’s striking landscape was shaped by not one, but two great rifting events, separated by nearly 80 million years. These tectonic shifts first tore the island from Africa, then from India, tilting and reshaping its terrain and setting the stage for life to flourish in isolation.

Madagascar first separated from Africa about 170 million years ago, forming a rugged western escarpment and an eastward-tilted plateau. For tens of millions of years, its rivers drained mainly eastward across this landscape.

Unlike traditional wildlife reintroductions, where species are physically released into the wild, this case is unique. The beaver’s return to Portugal happened independently, with the animals crossing from Spain on their own. Rewilding Portugal emphasized that this natural movement demonstrates how important healthy habitats and wildlife corridors are in restoring lost biodiversity.

...

The physical signs are convincing enough for experts to begin monitoring and preparing for a long-term return. Rewilding Portugal noted that some individuals may now be living and establishing territories in the area.

O reinado do castor chegará novamente, prepare-se, pois a hora está próxima.

The reign of the beaver will once again come, prepare yourself, for the time is near.

the climate-disaster database : https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/billion-dollar-disasters-oct-2025

The preprint: Mercury contamination in staple crops impacted by Artisanal Small-scale Gold Mining (ASGM): Stable Hg isotopes demonstrate dominance of atmospheric uptake pathway for Hg in crops

Other islands have emerged since the 1960s, but scientists say they have not been as ecologically stable. The last time something similar took place before Surtsey’s emergence was the birth of Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, in 1927, but it was quickly contaminated by humans. Icelandic researchers were adamant that this time would be different.

In 1965, Surtsey was placed under formal protection by the government. Only researchers and the odd journalist – under strict supervision – would be allowed to visit. No sheep would ever be allowed to graze there. The same year, the first plant was spotted: a clump of sea rocket brought over the waves from the Icelandic mainland.

“The first scientists that stepped on Surtsey in 1964 could see that seeds and plant residues had been washed ashore. Birds were even coming to the island to see what was going on. The eruption was still going on when they spotted the first plant – it was very quick,” says Vilmundardóttir.

archived (Wayback Machine)

It's about bioaccumulation. Bioaccumulation happens when chemicals, like pesticides or heavy metals, build up in an organism's body. These toxins come from polluted environments, from waste products of human activities like manufacturing. They pollute water or soil and gradually accumulate in plants and animals.

If toxins are present in the environment, they may first be taken in by plants, and then by animals that eat the plants, and animals that eat those animals. Black mambas are quite high up the food chain, so a lot of the toxins would accumulate in their bodies. These poisonous substances can reach dangerous levels, causing health problems for whatever eats them.

Sea level rise could put more than 100 million buildings across the Global South at risk of regular flooding if fossil fuel emissions are not curbed quickly, according to a new McGill-led study published in npj Urban Sustainability.

The research provides the first large-scale, building-by-building assessment of the impact of long-term sea level rise on coastal infrastructure in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America. The team used detailed satellite maps and elevation data to estimate how many buildings would be inundated at various levels of sea level rise over multi-century timescales.

Restrictions on traditional grazing are a key part of China's "Great Green Wall" campaign, a decades-old anti-desertification project credited with "greening" over 90 million hectares.

The campaign initially aimed to contain the expansion of deserts in the arid north caused by intensive farming, grazing, mining and climate change.

But in some places the goal has now evolved into creating new arable land, and the project combines large-scale tree planting with sowing drought-resistant creepers, and even installing vast solar arrays to limit wind and shade plants.

A massive system of rotating ocean currents in the North Atlantic is behaving extremely strangely, possibly because it is approaching a tipping point, a new analysis of clam shells shows.

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre plays a key role in transporting heat to the Northern Hemisphere, and it is a part of a much larger network of ocean currents called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). But new evidence suggests the subpolar gyre has been losing stability since the 1950s, meaning the gyre's circulation could weaken substantially in the coming decades, researchers report in a study published today (Oct. 3) in the journal Science Advances.

Scientists at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) have provided conclusive evidence that the Red Sea completely dried out about 6.2 million years ago, before being suddenly refilled by a catastrophic flood from the Indian Ocean. The findings put a definitive time on a dramatic event that changed the Red Sea.

The depletion of Iran's underwater aquifers is driving the ground to sink rapidly throughout the country, new research shows.

More than 12,120 square miles (31,400 square kilometers) of the country — an area roughly the size of Maryland — is now moving downward faster than 0.39 inches (10 millimeters) per year. In a more extreme example, the ground level has dropped by over a foot (34 cm) per year near the city of Rafsanjan, in central Iran.

This sinking, known as subsidence, exposes an estimated 650,000 people to a higher risk of other threats caused by changes in ground level, such as water scarcity and food insecurity, experts say. And part of the cause is ongoing drought in the country.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/43288859

As China continues to ramp up its claim over Tibetan resources, the environmental activists in the region face persistent threats from the Chinese authorities, a report said on Tuesday.

It added that between 2010 and 2019, many activists were detained and sentenced to years in prison in China for peacefully protesting against illegal mining activities, the hunting of endangered species, and environmental damage across Tibet.

According to a report in the 'Greek City Times', the imprisoned environmental human rights defenders include Anya Sengdra, Dorjee Daktal, Kelsang Choklang, Dhongye, Rinchen Namdol, Tsultrim Gonpo, Jangchup Ngodup, Sogru Abhu, and Namesy.

The environmentalists, it said, committed to protecting the environment and addressing ecological challenges, continue to face harassment, humiliation, and death threats from China.

"Tibetan environmentalist A-Nya Sengdra, who has spent seven years in jail, was recently denied release. Hence, he will stay in jail until February 2026. Ironically, no explanation was given for the extension of his jail term, which is reminiscent of China’s practice of acting without providing any satisfactory reason," the report detailed.

It stressed that this is not an isolated incident but part of a pattern showing how China has been harassing, torturing, and jailing Tibetan activists for raising their voice against the environmental exploitation in the region.

[...]

The Earth became darker from 2001 to 2024, meaning it reflects less sunlight, a research team reports in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The development is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere than in the southern half of the planet, the study published on Monday revealed.

A team led by Norman Loeb from NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton in the U.S. state of Virginia discovered this previously unknown inequality between the northern and southern hemispheres after analyzing satellite data.