this post was submitted on 20 May 2025
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Russia has moved to classify key demographic statistics following a dramatic collapse in its birth rate, which has plunged to levels not seen since the late 18th or early 19th century, according to a leading Russian demographer.

For decades, Russia has been experiencing a plunging birth rate and population decline, which appears to have worsened amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine—with high casualty rates and men fleeing the country to avoid being conscripted to fight.

Projections estimate that Russia's population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades. The United Nations has predicted that in a worst-case scenario, by the start of the next century, Russia's population could almost halve to 83 million.

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[–] conditional_soup@lemm.ee 14 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (9 children)

That's not unique to Russia. Birth rates in developed nations have been plummeting across the board. The only reason the US was escaping it and hanging out around replacement was because of immigration, and, well, I don't know if you've been keeping up with the news lately, but it seems like that's going to change.

There's lots of reasons driving demographic collapse, but I don't think war is one of them. South Korea is usually heralded as the shining example of demographic collapse because their birth rate is the worst by far, and it generally seems to be the case that as economies becomes more "advanced", women have less time and supports to focus on motherhood, and so just choose not to have kids. I put advanced in scare quotes because it seems to me that a truly advanced economy wouldn't footgun itself with rapid demographic collapse. Not to say that the trend shouldn't be towards a smaller population that will tax the Earth's resources less, but the way to get there safely for civilization isn't by falling off a cliff.

[–] JackbyDev@programming.dev 8 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I have thought long and hard about having a kid. The only positives are some happy moments, my parents getting a grandbaby, and having someone to help make sure I don't get taken advantage of when I'm old (I believe it is my financial responsibility to plan for myself but I know my brain may decline). Then I think of the negatives. The money, the loss of sleep, the loss of autonomy, the loss of time, it's just all so so much. My life would get substantially worse.

Then I think about adopting someone older than a baby, and it's an interesting idea, I don't feel a need to spread my genes, but it's the same thing. Then I think maybe adopt a teenager, it's not as long of a commitment. But by this point it's such a nasty equation of tradeoffs and I never want a child to be thought of that way. Plus, I really don't think I have the heart or patience for adopting an older child.

So the only real thing I feel like I'm missing is having someone to make sure I'm not a victim of elder abuse. I'll just try to keep getting you get friends and keep them close. I'm 33. My youngest close-ish friend is about 22. If I keep making young people my friends then hopefully if I'm in the nightmare scenario of mental decline and my spouse has passed that one of them can check up on me when we're both old. That seems less shitty than adopting a child for that reason.

[–] explodicle@sh.itjust.works 4 points 1 day ago

If you like working with kids, you could become a Big Brother or Big Sister too. They'll remember you. ❤️

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