652
A grim poll shows most Jewish Israelis support expelling Gazans. It's brutal - and true
(www.haaretz.com)
this post was submitted on 03 Jun 2025
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How can the war realistically end?
A return to the pre-war status quo. The withdrawal of Israeli troops, presumably in return for the hostages, with either Hamas or another group equally hostile to Israel in control of Gaza. This is the worst-case scenario for Israel, because it represents a total failure to eliminate the source of more potential October 7 attacks. I suspect it's the worst-case scenario for Gaza too, since future attacks on Israel would lead to future destruction in Gaza.
The destruction of Hamas and the establishment of a Gazan government friendly towards Israel, perhaps by the Palestinian authority or a coalition of Arab states. Very difficult and failure-prone, but a pathway to peace in the long term. I had hoped that this would be the outcome when the war started but it isn't what Netanyahu is trying to accomplish and by now I'm not sure there's enough goodwill left for it to still be possible.
Permanent Israeli occupation. I don't think Israel can maintain such an occupation - it would be extremely expensive in money, lives, and international goodwill. Netanyahu and his supporters seem to think that Israel can, but many of them seem to make plans reliant on divine intervention.
Expulsion of the population of Gaza. Egypt wouldn't accept that without a war. Maybe Trump thinks he can find another country that would, but even if he did (unlikely) then the logistics of moving two million people would be extremely challenging. I think this outcome is effectively impossible - another one of the "divine intervention required" plans. However, it would be a best-case scenario for Israel. The gain in territory means little, but no longer having Gazans as neighbors immediately ends the conflict for good, which no other outcome does.
If (2) isn't going to happen then (4) may be the best case scenario for everyone. Even the people being expelled and their descendants would probably be better off than they would be if they remain in Gaza for for many more decades of conflict. However, I very much doubt that it can happen.
Israel won't stop fighting upon gaining the historical borders of Israel & Judah. That was never the final goal, it's just the current justification.
The Israeli state is sort of doomed to be in a constant ethno-religious war with its neighbours, because-
This means that Israel presently relies on an external backer for its security (the US). Its number one policy goal is to change that fact. As a fascist regime, it's only really got one tool, which is to invade its enemies and engage in settler-colonialism (google Greater Israel). Like it's doing in Gaza. The fringe ultra-right in Israel are already calling to annex Lebanon, to "eliminate Hezbollah".
This is also doomed to fail and cause even more misery.
Makes you wonder if Israel is trying to grab as much land as possible and eliminate as many people who might have competing claims on that land as possible before the US collapses economically (and with that their giant military budget) now that Donald Trump is doing his best to make that a reality.