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OK, this is starting to make sense.
The deal says "You have to put the ACA subsidies to a vote by December. In return, we'll fund the government until January."
So they're not giving up their leverage, because if the Republicans fuck around the Dems can just slam the brakes on again right away. Meanwhile it puts the ball squarely in the Republicans court to actually do something about this issue that is raising healthcare prices for people all across America. It puts the focus on the Republican controlled House, and on Trump, letting the public really see who is fighting for them and who isn't.
I know it's easy to assume that this is another example of Shumer caving (God only knows, he does it so much I'm starting to think his spine is a paper straw), but looking at the details I'm starting to think this is actually a solid play.
My thoughts on this aligh with you. But I'll add one more layer to what you've said... This forces the government to open even temporarily which now leaves no excuse for Speaker Mike Johnson for not swearing in Adaleta Grejalva (my apologies for the misspelling). And with her sworn in that is the final vote needed to move on releasing the Epstein files, which if the recent rumors floating around are to be believed then they are sooo much worse for trump than originally thought. But supposedly there's enough Republicans willing to sign on with the release that the it looks like the Dems are trying to pull this bait and switch... or atleast that's how I've taken all this movement in the last few days.