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We are always headed for a crash. That’s the cycle of capitalism without strong regulatory mechanisms to mitigate it. I believe it is every 4-7 years that a crash has happened in the last 300 years.
Grocery value didn't go up. Real wages went down. We should measure inflation based on cost-of-living.
Groceries don't really get more expensive, because the methods for producing food don't really get less efficient over time; if anything, it's more efficient. So there's no real reason for them to become more expensive.
Instead, wages declined. I've already commented many times that the labor market is a free market, that means it's regulated by Supply and Demand. I.e., if prices for labor go down, as we can observe, then that can be interpreted such that supply of labor went up (women go to work too, offshoring labor to other countries, immigrants, ...) or that demand for labor went down (automation, end of growth, ...).
I honestly think that both cases are difficult, where the supply of labor could be a bit reduced by kicking out immigrants and home-shoring labor (and also, to a lesser extent, making it more difficult for women to work), which btw some advisers to trump are seemingly trying to do, but my honest opinion is that it won't bring wages up to how they were in the 1960s. Demand for labor is shrinking too, due to the end of growth and now AI and other automation techniques. I guess we'll have to face that.
edit: just to offer an optimistic outlook, i think that consumerism and therefore demand for consumer products could be stimulated by simply giving handouts to people. most people will spend most of the handouts immediately, and that stimulates consumerism. and that in turn stimulates the economy.
A crash? I'd say we're in a plane from which the pilot decided to press the "eject wings" button.
Yes
No. Things will just get worse.
Your statement has probably been true since 2008. Maybe longer.
This is so absolutely adorable.
I live in country that has plateaued financially for the last 2 decades.
You'll be fine. Really. In opposite to what you might have heard, free market capitalism in no way requires constant growth. It can adapt to plateaus or degrowth just fine.
Which country would this be?
Worse, you will get used to it.
Don't worry. Trump is making sure you can get a job picking crops. You'll be living in a tent. No rent, not utilities. You're welcome!
Slapping on tariffs at a time with inflation, high consumer anxiety, and wage stagnation is going to be looked on as one of the worst moves a president has made.
We can only hope! (That this is considered one of the worst ones…)
I remember during the big housing bubble in the early 2000s people were telling me "Oh you better buy now" even though down payments were insanely high and I kept thinking "The cost of housing is totally out of whack with incomes. There is no way this can keep going up." Surprise, surprise the whole thing blew up and lots of people were then left with mortgages that cost more than their homes so they were stuck. On top of that the prices were still out of whack with incomes and I still couldn't afford a house unless it was a wreck. I eventually just moved out of the state.
I was just reading how the normal "escape cities", like Miami, for people fleeing high cost areas like San Francisco and Boston/NYC are now almost as expensive. Guess people will have to go to St Louis and Des Moines.
Trump is selling us off to China, he said so today in the cabinet meeting. Everything is expensive because China owns it. Climate change is here, AMOC collapse is ongoing, we're pretty fucked tbh. So they need land and clean water for their people, we all do. Floods absolutely destroy/contaminate clean water sources like lakes. And there's been massive floods globally, especially in China.
More of a sticky slide into a chaos. From it our pain and suffering will fuel new metrics for new economic models with new crash indicators. Indicators that when applied to today would appear as an ominous array of flashing red lights.
The US could poke along forever, North Korea style because our entire country is full of cowards who will just take oppression without any fight.
...the climate, tho. 😬
You will own nothing, live in the company town, owe your soul to the company store, and be grateful.
And I just found out I need a new job as we are being ordered into the office after they moved it 50 miles away.
Things are not looking good. I think they will hit us with another round of redundancies after some people leave too.
That's scary. How are you holding up?
Scrolling through indeed right now, its not great. Maybe just give up trying to find anything I have skills for and find something unskilled?
But I think my contract states once a month in the office so if I can argue that its probably worth staying and just going through a shit commute once a month. Still not great but probably slightly better than taking a local retail job.
If they force your hand, file for UI.
Yes it's rough mate, I hope it picks up soon
ITT: Slaves use bunk stats to feel indignant about maintaining the status quo.
Depends what you mean by crash. Before, we have crashed through small bushes and banana stands. Big showy and doing minor damage. We are about to run into that tiny little tree that the devs never made animations for.
We are not prepared for the devastation that tree will cause.
And some turnip brain has thrown down a random slalom course of giant boulders of tariffs, terrorizing immigrant labor, and a full clown car of national “leadership” whose only qualification is personal loyalty
you are outside the bounds of the map
More of a slow collapse than a crash. Ever seen a dilapidated house on a country road, parts of the roof caving in, paint chipped, vines covering the yard? We’re working on being that house by slowly letting social and physical infrastructure in the US collapse over time.
What you're describing is basically stagflation. It doesn't necessarily mean a crash. It's possible for the majority of people to keep on earning less and less real income for a long time without a crash.
I do wonder what the effect of all the layoffs from tech and the public sector and all the cuts in federal funding will do though. Dunno if that's enough to flood the housing market and crash it or not. I think I've read that banks are in a good position to absorb housing market losses, so it won't be like 2008.
AFAIK, most current economic indicators are OK. Not necessarily great, but not dire either.
The stock market makes no sense to me. It doesn't appear most stocks move on the fundamentals of the companies or anything like that. It all appears to be driven by hype/gambling, and propped up from sustained lows by 401ks on auto-pilot and people trained to "buy the dip" by the quick Covid recovery.
The USD appears to be rapidly losing a lot of value compared to other currencies like the EUR. But, that fits well into the plan to reduce imports and boost US exports. Inflation with stagnant wages makes US exports more attractive/cheaper.
The stock market makes no sense to me.
That's because "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."