This map explores a different outcome of the historical Second Battle of Ypres in 1915. A common trope in alternate history is asking if/how Germany could have won the First World War. The answer usually boils down to either a different kind of war won within the first few weeks/months, a different runup to the war in which the various nations diverge from their historical positions or some hand waving or even asb approaches during the war as we know it.
This fictional outcome of the Second Battle of Ypres has Germany partially follow the advice of Fritz Haber, the inventor of modern gas warfare and nobel prize winner, by allocating two additional divisions as reserves to the offensive and finally by planning the gas attack as a breakthrough instrument rather than a trench clearer. The Germans get lucky with the wether and have favourable winds in the morning of 22 April instead of the afternoon.
These factors combine to allow them to overrun the Frenth 87th territorial division and 45 colonial division (as they did historically) but als move along the Gheluvelt road from the east and finally, taking serious losses, also capture the St. Julien road by the evening of 22 April. This completely cuts of the 1st Canadian division and severely restricts the 28th British division. Entente leadership suffers from miscommunication and logistical problems (like they did historically). Despite attempts at an orderly retreat along the Frenzenberg road the 1sth Canadian and the bulk of the the 28th British division are cut off on 23 April. This marks the largest encirclement on the Western Front after trench warfare was established there.
While in no way strategically significant, the Entente still loses two entire divisions and a further two are badly mauled. With reinforcements the front stabilises along the Ypres canal. The Germans, while victorious, still lack the reinforcements to force a breakthrough and settle for their tactical victory with the capture of the Ypres salient fully achieved.
I wanted to explore a somewhat plausible scenario in which the First World War happens just like it did historically but small differences compound in order to develop in a different direction. I believe that the Second Battle of Ypres is a good point to start with:
Ypres was the first large scale use of gas warfare, the effectiveness of which was underestimated by the Germans. Dulled by the experience of trench warfare they historically advanced in a shallow manner and had too few men in reserve to properly exploit the broken front. They were also unlucky that nightfall prevented further advances towards the St. Julien road.
Italy was still on the fence. While it was clearly moving toward the Entente an upset to that alliance could perhaps postpone that decision. A more comprehensive German victory would be seen by contemporaries as the Central Powers finding a way to overcome trench warfare and regain the initiative - even if that wasn't the intention of the German Empire. Italy historically joined the war in May 1915, forcing Austria-Hungary to divert over 200k additional troops to that front.
A straighter front along the Ypres Canal would allow the Germans to send an addition 1-2 divisions east for their summer offensive against Russia. Likewise a dithering Italy would allow Austria-Hungary to commit more forces to the Russian and Serbian fronts, perhaps achieving greater success there with German guidance in the process.
Great thank you to the Warfare History Network. I used both their insightful article on this battle as well as their map of the historical battle as starting off points, although I had to map a slightly larger area of operations due to the larger extent of this battle compared with the historical one.
Author @jjpamsterdam@feddit.org