collapse of the old society

In the mid-1990s physicists Geoffrey West and Louis Bettencourt collaborated with biologists to study allometric scaling laws, where it is generally found that larger organisms are more efficient consumers of energy than smaller ones. After mathematically explaining these laws through fractal network effects, the researchers began applying them to the human built environment, particularly cities.

Certain environmentalists and sustainability advocates mistook the significance of these results, leading to decades of policy work and investments in urban growth that, West now admits, are doomed to fail.

The fact that so many, including the originators of the work, got this story wrong reflects the cultural blinders and techno-biases that typify most of us living in high energy modernity. Doing the opposite of our conditioned response to the overshoot predicament will likely lead to more favorable outcomes.

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In the mid-1990s physicists Geoffrey West and Louis Bettencourt collaborated with biologists to study allometric scaling laws, where it is generally found that larger organisms are more efficient consumers of energy than smaller ones. After mathematically explaining these laws through fractal network effects, the researchers began applying them to the human built environment, particularly cities.

Certain environmentalists and sustainability advocates mistook the significance of these results, leading to decades of policy work and investments in urban growth that, West now admits, are doomed to fail.

The fact that so many, including the originators of the work, got this story wrong reflects the cultural blinders and techno-biases that typify most of us living in high energy modernity. Doing the opposite of our conditioned response to the overshoot predicament will likely lead to more favorable outcomes.

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record annual jump cited (Wayback Machine)

Please note that this article contains questionable arithmetic:

That brings the annual mean global concentration close to 430 ppm, about 40 percent more than the pre-industrial level, and enough to heat the planet by about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius).

The actual figure from NOAA is 428.15 ppm (last updated 2025-04-14). If we use the more precise pre-industrial estimate of 278 ppm, then we get an increase of 54%, which is indeed "about 40%" if we round to the nearest multiple of 40%.

Climate models tend to underestimate the cooling effect of aerosol pollution, and the climate sensitivity is actually about 50% greater than previously thought, so a more realistic estimate of the warming caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration over the pre-industrial level is 4.5°C. If we assume that the relationship is linear, this means that the current level of 428.15 ppm is "enough to heat the planet" by 4.5°C * 54% = 2.43°C, which is... more than 1.5°C.

the 2023-2024 spike of the global average surface temperature, which has also not been fully explained

Yes it has.

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Rice, the world’s most consumed grain, will become increasingly toxic as the atmosphere heats and as carbon dioxide emissions rise, potentially putting billions of people at risk of cancers and other diseases, according to new research published Wednesday in The Lancet.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/20970653

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Behind these declines lies a constellation of human-driven threats, with habitat destruction leading the charge. Each year, approximately 10 million hectares of forest — an area nearly the size of Kentucky — disappear to make way for agriculture, urban development, and resource extraction. Particularly devastating is the ongoing destruction of tropical rainforests, Earth’s most biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems. The Amazon Basin alone has lost roughly 17% of its forest cover in the past 50 years, with deforestation rates accelerating dramatically in recent years despite increased awareness of the region’s critical importance to global climate regulation.

The connection between rainforest destruction and global agricultural systems reveals a particularly troubling cycle of environmental degradation. Vast tracts of pristine forest, especially in South America, are being systematically cleared to grow soybeans — not primarily for direct human consumption, but to feed livestock in industrial animal agriculture operations worldwide. This represents a staggeringly inefficient use of land: producing one pound of beef requires approximately seven pounds of grain, making meat production a principal driver of habitat loss. The irony is profound — forests that once supported immense biodiversity are destroyed to grow monoculture crops that feed animals raised in factory farms, all while greenhouse gas emissions from both deforestation and livestock production accelerate climate change.

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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/20740784

Amid all the bad climate news flowing out of the Trump administration, you might have missed a quiet new consensus congealing in think tanks and big business. The targets set out by the Paris climate agreement, they argue—to limit global temperature rise to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit)—are a lost cause. It’s time to prepare for a world warmed by at least three degrees Celsius.

Owing to “recent setbacks to global decarbonization efforts,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a research report last month, they “now expect a 3°C world.” The “baseline” scenario that JP Morgan Chase uses to assess its own transition risk—essentially, the economic impact that decarbonization could have on its high-carbon investments—similarly “assumes that no additional emissions reduction policies are implemented by governments” and that the world could reach “3°C or more of warming” by 2100. The Climate Realism Initiative launched on Monday by the Council on Foreign Relations similarly presumes that the world is likely on track to warm on average by three degrees or more this century. The essay announcing the initiative calls the prospect of reaching net-zero global emissions by 2050 “utterly implausible.”

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Related: Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?

(Previous climate models have underestimated the cooling effect of aerosol pollution and the climate's sensitivity to rising carbon dioxide levels.)

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/20737457

In the summer of 2023, a dozen people willingly walked into a steel chamber at the University of Ottawa designed to test the limits of human survival. Outfitted with heart rate monitors and temperature probes, they waited in temperatures of 42 degrees Celsius, or 107 degrees Fahrenheit, while the humidity steadily climbed, coating their bodies in sweat and condensation. After several hours, their internal body temperatures began ratcheting upward, as the heat cooked them from the outside in.

“Few people on the planet have actually experienced temperatures like this,” said Robert Meade, a postdoctoral researcher in epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health who led the study. “Imagine moisture condensing on the skin like a glass of water on a hot day. That’s how hot it was, compared to skin temperature.”

Their experiment tested the body’s ability to cope with extreme heat by exposing participants to temperatures at which they could no longer cool themselves. Their study confirmed that this dangerous threshold is much lower than scientists had previously thought: a so-called wet-bulb temperature, which accounts for heat and humidity, of 26 to 31 degrees C.

https://archive.ph/Lj16Y

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.nz/post/21414090

The memo, shared with The Grocer, warns food businesses are woefully unprepared for challenges including soil degradation, extreme weather events, global heating and water scarcity and that yield, quality and predictability of food supply are all at severe risk.

It goes on to claim that companies’ risk mitigation strategies are being assured by major audit and assurance firms and giving false confidence to investors, whereas the true threat to the supply chain is far greater than companies have acknowledged.

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/19706595

2024 climate trends should be a "wake-up call that we are increasing the risks to our lives, economies and to the planet,” said Celeste Saulo

It’s usually easy to predict first-order effects. Those are effects that follow directly from our actions. For example, the Trump administration’s well-publicized campaign to find and deport persons not legally in the United States has had the predictable effects of causing some to leave on their own, others to hide and those who might have crossed the southern border into the United States not to, at least for now, if the large drop in border crossing and arrests is any indication.

But the second-order effects, that is, those that follow from the first-order ones, are often harder to detect and receive far less coverage. For example, Florida, which passed new draconian legislation in 2023 and began its own statewide crackdown on undocumented immigrants, began to see the second-order effects within a year. Agricultural workers were more difficult to find. Farmers could still sign them up for temporary work visas, but the federal system is difficult and costly to navigate. (To get a sense of how complex and demanding that system is, read more about it here.) The hotel, restaurant and construction industries are struggling to find people for the jobs they have open.

Now come the third-order effects. With the ongoing labor shortage, Florida is considering relaxing child labor laws to make more children available for jobs previously held by immigrants. In all likelihood, the state wouldn’t even be considering this change had it not chased away so many immigrant laborers in the first place.

BR-319: Paving the way for Indigenous displacement and environmental catastrophe.

Non-paywall link

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/20078756

A new study warns that global declines in soil moisture over the 21st century could mark a “permanent” shift in the world’s water cycle.

related: Animal Agriculture Uses Most of Earth's Freshwater

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

For those who prefer to read the information:

https://www.albartlett.org/articles/art_forgotten_fundamentals_overview.html

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/23274095

Summary

Grocery prices are expected to rise globally as soil degradation, driven by overfarming, deforestation, and climate change, reduces farmland productivity.

The UN estimates 33% of the world’s soils are degraded, with 90% at risk by 2050. Poor soil forces farmers to use costly fertilizers or abandon fields, raising prices for staples like bread, vegetables, and meat.

Experts advocate for sustainable practices like regenerative agriculture, cover cropping, and reduced tillage to restore soil health.

Innovations and government subsidies could mitigate impacts, but immediate action is critical to ensure food security.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/24390129

When the global population does decline sometime this century, it will be the first time since the Black Death, 700 years ago. But this time, it will be driven by human choice -- specifically, the choice of women globally to not have so many children.