This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/ukraine by /u/nyckidd on 2025-07-24 14:36:42+00:00.
Back again for another update on the war in Ukraine. If you'd like to get these posts in your inbox every week, please subscribe to my substack, the link is in my profile.
Video of the week:
https://reddit.com/link/1m863t6/video/5s8xm0xnvtef1/player
- This video shows what it's like to be a bit too close for comfort to a Shahed drone strike. Russia has steadily upgraded its Iranian designed Shaheds (which they call Gerans), to the point where they are now accurate enough to be used in a strike role on the front line rather than in saturation attacks against military and civilian targets deep within Ukraine. They are still a rather blunt instrument, but as you can see here, they pack a much larger punch than FPV drones.
Maps:
Sumy last week:
https://preview.redd.it/luhmojv7wtef1.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f9c421b50706486ba02c0ac53e84f6b5117042e
Sumy this week:
https://preview.redd.it/cgjg5gu8wtef1.png?width=1081&format=png&auto=webp&s=541ab75bbc12a71497708ad7e0a4a06d309f86a2
- Russian forces have been pushed back here slightly, a welcome change.
Kupiansk last week:
https://preview.redd.it/x7c95nkdwtef1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9e031b54c6a966344498844e34b7ee78c20203d
Kupiansk this week:
https://preview.redd.it/zn3x008ewtef1.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=286d4226317bad37281f28fe00e69224af7b1138
- Small advance by the Russians here, if that pincer goes any further south, it could threaten the salient around Kurylivka.
Lyman last week:
https://preview.redd.it/plb99mjkwtef1.png?width=839&format=png&auto=webp&s=5594ef6111a082f003b519d4a7c02c2788fb80ba
Lyman this week:
https://preview.redd.it/pobkui4lwtef1.png?width=885&format=png&auto=webp&s=d59e5e1d03911d4125bce784df571a6cb5d241c0
- Two small advances by the Russians here in the north of the sector.
Chasiv Yar last week:
https://preview.redd.it/gd6cia2owtef1.png?width=832&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa798ceb355f1f05c6eadb44accdfc5a2b48f499
Chasiv Yar this week:
https://preview.redd.it/vvk32noowtef1.png?width=1101&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd99888857e440224960e60caeb4f3ad9bc103b0
- Russian forces advanced in the south of this sector. The town of Kostiantynivka is apparently under constant Russian drone attack in order to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
Pokrovsk last week:
https://preview.redd.it/jcjrdqmvwtef1.png?width=1089&format=png&auto=webp&s=090a784396d04ccb4fe8438cc9a5e1b66d07d4c2
Pokrovsk this week:
https://preview.redd.it/bzyg8r8wwtef1.png?width=1099&format=png&auto=webp&s=090238ee8c356b6f0c035162c88db9962d7e97d0
- Russia expanded the grey zone significantly in the north of this sector, but they haven't made any confirmed advances, which is very good. The situation in Pokrovsk, however, remains critical. Russians were apparently able to advance into the city for the first time this week, though they were promptly expelled.
Zaporizhzhia last week:
https://preview.redd.it/snshnby3xtef1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb75dbe8d06ad57c7980f99861d1d672fb875348
Zaporizhzhia this week:
https://preview.redd.it/82352pj4xtef1.png?width=1161&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce4a3639d4b275e0231dad029ed9e840b1c57611
- No significant changes here.
Events this week:
- The Ukrainian parliament passed, and Zelensky signed into law, a controversial bill that brings robs several anti-corruption organizations within the Ukrainian government of their independence, which lead to the first anti-government protests in Ukraine since the war started. It's been difficult for me to figure out what exactly is going on with this bill. I generally trust Zelensky and don't think he's conniving enough that he would seek to reinforce his own power at the cost of the war effort, but fighting corruption is crucial for Ukraine to be able to build a good government, and independence is absolutely crucial for any organization that exists to destroy corruption. The claim of the Ukrainian government is that these organizations were infiltrated by Russian agents, who took advantage of their independence. I can certainly believe this on some level, Russia loves nothing more than ruthlessly exploiting weak points in an opposing nation's society and leveraging those points in bad faith ways to create more division. I can also believe that some individuals within Ukraine were scared of these organizations and jumped at using that infiltration as an excuse to gut them and protect themselves. I'm sure that the truth lies somewhere in between. Zelensky has since promised to do more to fight corruption, and he better be telling the truth.
- Ukraine is turning more and more to specially designed air interceptor drones that can take down Russian Shaheds at a fraction of the cost of traditional AD missiles. Many of these drones are designed by a company run by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. They use AI in their targeting software and are highly resistant to Russian electronic warfare. I've seen claims that 9 out of 10 Shaheds that get downed in the latest attacks are hit by these interceptors, though that seems like a pretty high estimate to me. Either way, these drones are absolutely crucial to Ukraine's continued ability to defend itself from every more numerous Russian drone attacks.
- The Pentagon announced a new security assistance tranche for Ukraine, the first since Trump was re-elected. This includes $9 million for the repair of Bradley IFVs, and also more Hawk AD missile systems. While it's a pretty small package, it's still a good thing that Trump is actually authorizing these now.
- In another sign of changing priorities for the GOP, and how fecklessly beholden they are to Trump, many of the same MAGAs who talked shit about sending aid to Ukraine last year are now on board, and for the first time, more Republicans support sending aid to Ukraine than Democrats, with 64% in total saying we should send more. While I find it pathetic how easily they change their minds for Daddy Trump, this is at least a good sign. Another good sign was that the House overwhelmingly voted to continue providing military support to Ukraine last week, with a 353-76 vote.
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the other day that Russia produces 12 times more artillery ammunition in one year that every NATO country combined, a stark reminder of the difference between a country operating on a war economy basis vs. those that aren't.
- Increasingly, when Ukraine dismantles crashed Russian drones, they find that the vast majority or even all of the parts in them are made in China. In recognition of this reality, the EU has for the first time sanctioned several Chinese banks. Unfortunately, China has the power to completely sustain the Russian war effort on its, though right now their support is still fairly tepid.
- The Australian M1 Abrams tanks have now arrived in Ukraine, and presumably will show up at the front reasonably soon. Australia has now provided more Abrams than the US did. These are good tanks, and while they aren't exactly a game changer anymore, each additional tank is quite welcome.
Oryx Numbers:
- Total Russian vehicle losses: 22,397 (+56)
- Russian tank losses: 4,075 (+4)
- Russian IFV losses: 6,071 (+10)
- Russian SPG losses: 960 (+3)
- Russian SAM losses: 340 (+1)
- Russian Naval losses: 28 (+0)
- Russian Aircraft losses: 162 (+0)
- Russian Helicopter losses: 159 (+0)
- Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 9,432 (+85)
- Ukrainian tank losses: 1,226 (+9)
- Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,426 (+7)
- Ukrainian IMV losses: 1036 (+20)
- Ukrainian SPG losses: 608 (+11)
- Ukrainian SAM losses: 172 (+1)
- Ukrainian F-16 losses: 4 (+0)
Unfortunately, it's another week of higher Ukrainian vehicle losses than Russian ones. One thing that is worth pointing out here, which I've mentioned before, is that this is a sign of Russia running low on armored vehicles. Russia is also increasingly resorting to using motor bikes and ATVs in their assaults, which Oryx does not track. Ukraine, meanwhile, has large numbers of IMVs, both domestically and foreign produced, meaning that they can afford to lose more of them. You'd much rather have an armored car get attacked than a guy on a bike, because the bike guy is going to die with the bike, while the IMV is much more likely to save its occupants.
Thank you for reading.
