This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/ukraine by /u/nyckidd on 2025-07-17 14:52:00+00:00.
Hey guys, it's Thursday so time for another update on Ukraine. While the political situation seems to be getting better, the situation in some parts of the front seems to be deteriorating. More on that below. If you'd like to get these updates in your inbox, please check out my profile for the link to my substack.
Video of the week:
https://reddit.com/link/1m29m97/video/vx8ovmi9xfdf1/player
- This video demonstrates the results of the German-made Skynex air defense system as it shoots down many Shahed one way attack drones. The system is a 35mm automatic cannon mounted on truck with a powerful radar. It can track and destroy slow flying drones very cost-effectively since it only has to shoot a relatively small burst to down a drone, thanks to its remarkable accuracy. Systems like this are some of the most important anti-drone weapons out there.
Maps:
Sumy last week:
https://preview.redd.it/l2i3yk1rxfdf1.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=d916be47e4261b06145dcc6dfb79cbcb5e4f2fa2
Sumy this week:
https://preview.redd.it/lyrzdz96yfdf1.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=4caaa4668008cbb756479547545e20d1df4553f8
- No significant changes here.
Kupiansk last week:
https://preview.redd.it/10p4o0e8yfdf1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=d44129de715cccf8ca9f12302d84bed8d2b6f3aa
Kupiansk this week:
https://preview.redd.it/ngdm0b49yfdf1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=524f2d85b29ebbeeb85560e73ee634f84f8db4b2
Lyman last week:
https://preview.redd.it/l06k3j4byfdf1.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=77bd9b971fed6f19940127e4d555cbb81fcdae2b
Lyman this week:
https://preview.redd.it/bokk4iobyfdf1.png?width=839&format=png&auto=webp&s=0adeae5c755d30755c2a3f777eaa3ef91c384153
- Small advance made by the Russians in the salient north of Lyman.
Chasiv Yar last week:
https://preview.redd.it/jjx537ngyfdf1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b84210da4fcd3f3ca31be95f933bbcd988d65a4
Chasiv Yar this week:
https://preview.redd.it/tsxvow8hyfdf1.png?width=832&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8fdac371d4a43265bd89f4a90be873abefbd727
- Russia advanced to close a gap in their lines south of Chasiv Yar.
Pokrovsk last week:
https://preview.redd.it/dnpkt6nlyfdf1.png?width=1083&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf58014673b117d69648fb5cf8f029640256e355
Pokrovsk this week:
https://preview.redd.it/hfird28myfdf1.png?width=1089&format=png&auto=webp&s=39ec4de0e4a3fb63e164b9d3ee614e98fabd01c8
- Extremely critical Russian advance here north of Myrnohrad. The cutting off and encirclement of both Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk is now a real possibility, which has been the goal of Russian offensive efforts here for months. If I were Ukraine, I would use all possible force to attack that Russian pincer north of Myrnohrad. Unfortunately, they may not have the reserves to do that.
Zaporizhzhia last week:
https://preview.redd.it/s0k9w0qq2gdf1.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=f229b741dc0c55ffe39c5f2a4f56c194976104c2
Zaporizhzhia this week:
https://preview.redd.it/awv8nqer2gdf1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef9037ee1b14136edfac0dac1c442093bca89cd0
- Russians keep advancing north of Velyka Novosilka, no other changes besides that.
Events this week:
- Trump announced that Russia would have 50 days to come to the table with a real offer before he allows the sanctions bill that has huge support in Congress to go through. This bill would hit Russia harder with sanctions than anything before, including tough secondary sanctions in the form of steep tariffs on any country that does a lot of business with Russia, particularly India and China. Potential sanctions on India are especially interesting since they are pretty close with Trump, though they are also one of the biggest external funders of Russia's war since they buy huge amounts of Russian oil. He additionally authorized the first new presidential draw down aid package for Ukraine since he's been president, allowing hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of equipment to be sent.
- He also announced, alongside NATO head and all-around good guy Mark Rutte, that a deal is being worked out whereby European nations will buy large amounts of American war materiel to donate to Ukraine. While it's not as good as straight up aid, this will still result in a substantial amount of support for Ukraine. The first package is estimated to be worth $10 billion, which is more than any individual aid package we sent to Ukraine.
- France and Italy, however, have both said they are opting out of this deal, as they greatly prefer to spend money on domestically produced systems. Both countries are still strong supporters of Ukraine, but they don't want to buy American arms when they could use the money to benefit their own economies, and, especially in the case of France, already produce domestic versions of most of the equipment required.
- Germany announced that it is providing long range strike weapons to Ukraine. Whether or not these are the infamous Taurus missiles they've been waffling about sending for years now is unclear, though it seems like it might be. Long overdue if so.
- Reporting also indicated this week that during Trump's call with Zelensky last week, he asked whether Ukraine was capable of hitting Moscow and St. Petersburg to force Russia to the negotiating table. While he later seemed to walk back this sentiment, it shows that Trump is interested in some way in hitting Putin where it hurts.
- I've also seen an unconfirmed report that all restrictions on the use of ATACMS will be lifted, allowing Ukraine to strike anywhere in Russia within range, though I need to see more confirmation on this.
- A high-ranking Ukrainian intelligence officer was assassinated by individuals working for Russia's FSB intelligence service in Kyiv. This was a rare success by the FSB within Ukraine. Ukraine's SBU service claimed to have killed the assassins in a gunfight several days later.
- According to an analysis by the Economist, in the past year Russia has gained about .038 square kilometers of territory for each dead soldier. At the rate they are going, it would take 89 years for them to seize all of Ukraine. While this analysis obviously doesn't take into account the possibility of front collapses allowing Russia to move faster, it's still worth keeping in mind when you read that Russia is advancing.
Oryx Numbers:
- Total Russian vehicle losses: 22,341 (+46)
- Russian tank losses: 4,071 (+6)
- Russian IFV losses: 6,061 (+7)
- Russian SPG losses: 957 (+1)
- Russian SAM losses: 339 (+1)
- Russian Naval losses: 28 (+0)
- Russian Aircraft losses: 162 (+0)
- Russian Helicopter losses: 159 (+0)
- Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 9,347 (+55)
- Ukrainian tank losses: 1,217 (+7)
- Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,419 (+10)
- Ukrainian IMV losses: 1016 (+12)
- Ukrainian SPG losses: 597 (+7)
- Ukrainian SAM losses: 171 (+0)
- Ukrainian F-16 losses: 4 (+0)
Another week of fairly light vehicle losses on both sides, though it's always a bit concerning to see Ukrainian losses be higher than Russian losses. I've also noticed that the loss rate of Ukrainian SPG systems has gone up in the past few months. They have tons of these and are able to domestically produce large numbers of them, so they can make up these losses, but it definitely seems like Russia has been able to step up its ability to target them.
As always, thanks for reading.
