171
Israel launches dozens of airstrikes on Syria despite rebel leader's peace pledge
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2024
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They're just bound and determined to start WW3 aren't they?
At some point they'll piss off another major player in the region like Saudi Arabia or Turkey and it'll snowball into a conflict that can't be talked down.
These dictatorships, and Israel with this current cabinet is effectively a fascist dictatorship, want to expand their sphere of influence and territory. They are willing to disregard the rules based order and risk WWIII even if that isn't the goal.
The Middle East seems to be in this three way power struggle now between Turkey, Saudi Arabia backed by the US, and Iran backed by Russia. Iran is part of this axis with China, North Korea, and Russia. Turkey is in NATO and wants to be a EU member, but is an enemy of the Kurds a US ally.
The US wants Israel and Saudi Arabia to join in a defense pact so our two allies will help us maintain peace in the region. Saudi Arabia wants to be the leaders of a new caliphate in the Middle East that unites the countries and Muslims living there. Defense pacts with the US and Israel would help them do that. But the Middle East is united in their support of Palestine which means Israel needs to make concessions on Palestine or Saudi Arabia will never be seen as a legitimate leader of the Middle East.
So Israel's genocide of the Palestinians is not only destabilizing the region and making Israel a pariah, it's also knee capping Saudi Arabia's ambitions. Saudi Arabia needs US support but they can't be seen as an ally to a genocidal Israel.
At the same time Israel has undermined Iran's proxy network which allowed Syrian rebels to win the civil war. Iran and Russia are now on the back foot in the region.
Rather than swoop in and be a uniter, Turkey is wasting time fighting the Kurds in Syria.
Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey all want to be the leaders of a future caliphate, but thanks to Israel none of them are in a position to get it. This is a terrible situation for the people living in the Middle East and in the long run can only lead to Israel getting more land, influence, and resources in the region.
At this point a country without strong foreign ties that emphasizes the idea of self-determination for countries in the Middle East is more likely to unite the Middle East than Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Turkey. If Syria could recover from the war quickly enough, they could be in an excellent position to do this, given the HTS leader's talking points. HTS and the Kurds need to double down on an alliance and kick out ISIS and Turkey asap.
Peace in the Middle East is what is good for everyone in the long run, even if some people argue it could theoretically hurt US interests in the short run. A united Europe has benefited that region and the world tremendously. A new Middle Eastern super power might scare some policy people, but it would be an important counter balance to Russia, China, India, and Israel. Those four countries especially would happily carve up the Middle East into bits if they can as the US becomes isolationist under Trump. edit: typo
I was biginning to laugh through the second half of your post but especially after this:
Now I don't know what you are aware of regarding the relationship between the HTS alliance and Turkey, but what exactly do you think is going to go down when HTS starts attacking Turkish interests?