this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2025
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"If fiscal expenses remain at their January levels throughout the remainder of the year, the NWF reserves could vanish in just three months. And even if they don’t — as is more likely — 2025 is probably the last year Moscow will be able to fully cover its fiscal deficit by tapping into those savings."

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[–] perestroika@lemm.ee 147 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (16 children)

Short summary:

  • Russia is operating with a budget deficit
  • borrowing from foreign lands is blocked
  • local banks are unable / unwilling to buy more state bonds, as they'd risk insolvency
  • the most liquid part (estimate: about 60%) of the national wealth fund has been used up

Pressing financial issues might be impossible to postpone for longer.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 58 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

This pretty much nails the article.

But there are things the article doesn't mention, so it's even worse than that. Because the real estate market is on the brink of collapse.
And the financial institutions are not well bolstered, because they've been forced to lend money to the weapons industry, so the Russian state can buy weapons below cost price!
So if the real estate market collapses, the banks will collapse, and apart from the extreme economic slow down that causes, the weapons industry will simply not be able to make weapons for the Russian army!!!

It's all a house of cards, and there are many more fractures in the Russian economy than this, but this is the most obvious AFAIK.
As things are going, there is no if, It sems to be literally only a matter of time when the Russian economy will collapse. Some are guessing that it can't hold longer than until Mid summer. But Russia has this weird tradition, where people keep meeting for work, even if they haven't been paid for months?! This could possibly extend it a bit further.

The Kremlin has no plan D to finance its budget deficit

This key point is worth mentioning too IMO. Russia is out of options, because every aspect of their economy is stressed beyond sustainable limits already.

For the Kremlin, it thus looks like this year is set to be difficult on the fiscal front.

This gave me a chuckle, it's such an understatement.

[–] NaibofTabr 36 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I think the inevitable outcome will be China buying up a lot of Russia's economy in the form of property, businesses, and access to natural resources.

[–] LegoBrickOnFire@jlai.lu 7 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Probably the US will do that too :)

[–] NaibofTabr 8 points 2 months ago

Hmm, Trump might actually attempt it, but I think Russia in general is far more likely to sell to Chinese interests and accept a long-term Chinese presence.

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