this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2025
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I am not arguing that international law or a treaty was broken with NATO eastward extension, and I don't argue it was was wrong.
My point is, that Russia clearly communicated they see it this way.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controversy_regarding_NATO%27s_eastward_expansion
Not that explicitly, but yes, that's exactly the story they are telling.
Should every country just follow Russian agenda and let them control ex east block states? No!
Does this mean it is acceptable in any way for them to start a war? No!
Is it surprising they will act exactly as they said and start a war? Also No...
You can call it a myth, that's not they point, because even if so, it was a very powerful myth for Russian government they would act on.
My point is not, that this makes up for anything Russia does, it doesn't, my point is that for them NATOs eastward expansion (along with EU expansion) plays a large role in searching for reasons to act imperialistic. Even if we find that wrong, and a bad reason, which I do, we can't just pretend it isn't a major talking point for them and make it undone by pretending it isn't there.
The point we should be making is why this NATO westward expansion doesn't excuse starting a war, what their imperialistic interests are that make them use this claim and what our proposed way is of handling things differently is (international law, peacefull Negotiations about security interest, possible peace guarantees, etc.)
My problem with your meme is not, that I believe Russia is right, my problem with your meme is, that it makes it seem like Russia is not using NATO westward expansion a excuse to justify their illegal war to their own population and their international partners, which it absolutely does and has been since decades.
And that Russia starts illegally and forecfully securing control with a country which is not yet in the nato and has exceptional high geopolitical value for them is not so surprising in my opinion either.
I'm not arguing installing puppet governments, invading sovergein nations, occupying their land and slaughtering their people is remotely acceptable or excusable in any way.
I'm saying if some dictators say: we don't invade old east block states as long as you don't expand eastwards, then we do exactly that, and they do exactly what they said the would, we can't act all surprised picachu and act like their actions have nothing to do with ours.
We can choose this conflict, because it is just, because it is the right thing to do, because we believe in the cause of freedom from imperialistic oppression by Russia etc. But we can't say we couldn't see that conflict coming and our actions (while the just ones) don't play any role in it.
You're talking in circles here, your only point is that "we should have seen this coming". Ok? Why bother posting this?
Because the meme makes it seme like someone is superimposing this narrative on Russia, the little girl, which infantising Russia, taking them out of responsibility and distorting history.
This is not the case.
The narrative plays a huge role in the conflict and was pushed by people way back, Gorbachev for example.
In what universe would they admit they didn't see it that way?
The united states would get pissed if our enemy decided to befriend Canada after we keep spitting on them, but that's not any of their faults, we just didn't think anything would ever change. And Canada used to like us, Ukraine has a long history of resisting Russia only to get invaded by them and forced into their sphere of influence. Ukraine wanted to be a separate communist country in the 1910s.