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I'll just be over here quietly cheering "two fronts" because I'm sure it'll go well for them
That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can't handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.
Can you expound on the later part of your thought? I'm struggling to picture a scenario in which the Kremlin purposefully opens a second front. The purpose of these airspace raids is to saber rattle and make it so Europe beefs up its defenses and is less likely to give equipment to Ukraine and instead use it domestically.
Im curious if this is true in any way, or is just armchair chatter. Are there actual reports of this?
Thank you!
You also have to remember the phenomenon isn't new, and the Russian elites expect and adjust for it. There's internal spying going on, and I'm pretty sure Putin would have an idea how the war effort is going, even if there's pretty serious information gaps on which exact parts will fail when.
This is also why they structure their troops the meat-grindery way they do. Sure, counting more bodies as more success is dumb and counterintuitive, but no bodies could either be great success or your unit selling their equipment to go on a bender, so it's better to choose the way that guarantees some kind of combat. My source on that practice is Kamil Galeev.
I can speculate it could be to frame this war as a war against nato, or to get a reason for full scale mobilization, or to get a reason to use nuclear weapons.
"Nuclear weapons use" is an element of their doctrine for foreign policy influence.
They are not fucking idiots. But they do recognize that "nuclear blah blah" works well with cowardly westerners.
They are not fucking idiots? They absolutely are fucking idiots. And they are being backed into a corner. A lot of stuff can happen.
How much do you know about russian history? If your life was on the line, do you think you could write 3 key bullet points (since your life is on the line, you wouldn't have access to a search engine or an LLM) about every decade of 20th century russia? Basic things like 1906 protests, implementation of NEP, Khrushev and so on. No one is asking for in-depth knowledge.
Do you speak russian? How do you know they are not playing you if you don't speak russian?
Your message about "backed into a corner" is exactly what they want you to think. They got you "hook line and sinker" as the North Americans like to say.
Haha. I don't think you have any idea what you are talking about.
You think your the first person I've met with this attitude? Be it IRL/online or from EU or USA?
You can't even speak russian and you claim to understand their leadership and society. It's extremely ignorant.
Ok, whatever you say.
я говорю чуть-чуть по-русски, и занималась истории СССР, а ещё мы - не согласны. СМО неоправдан.
Ok, how is this relevant to what NoiseColor was saying?
It's pretty typical western copytext from my perspective.
How does NoiseColor know that he isn't getting played about the nuclear bla bla if he doesn't even speak russian?
также мы с NoiseColor не согласны - не думаю что Путин хочет ядерную войну. а победе в Украине надо прекратить поддержку НАТО. ну Путини кажется что Тромп НАТО не дальше поддерживает, и затом НАТО ослабляет. так может быть что Путин нападает Польше, чтобы сломать союзу НАТО. а это очень опасно..
Я в принципе с тобой согласен.
Хотя чёрт его знает что будет. 😬
Putin has modeled his rule after the Csarist monarchy of the Russian Empire. He notably despises communism and blames it for the collapse of the USSR. He calls himself "president" but many within the state Duma believe the title to be an embarrassing western descriptor and would prefer to bestow on him the title of "pravitel" or "ruler".
But Putin ran into a bit of a problem. Just as to be called Caesar you need to rule Rome, to be called czar you need to rule over all of Rus. For him, the cultural, historical, and religious significance of Kievan Rus was just too large to be ignored.
When it existed, the Russian Empire tried to erase the other eastern Slavic languages from their shared cultural memory. They acted as if there was no Ukraine and never had been, just as with Belarus. According to the Tsarists, Ukrainians had always been Russians and had no history of their own. The Ukrainian and Belorussian languages were banned. Ukrainian nationalism was a threat to the underlying myths of Russia and threatened the czars' attempts at creating an “All-Russian People.”
Putin is emulating their rule and presents himself as a tsar-like figure. He’s built a massive, opulent palace for himself, with gold-plated double-headed eagles, a clear Imperial Russian symbol, everywhere—even in his personal strip club. Similarly, the Russian Orthodox Church helps him pacify the population and supports whatever myths Kremlin wants to glorify. He wanted to go down in the history books as a grand unifier of Russian lands—if not under the same government, then definitely as the hegemon of the Russian world.
Putin wants it both ways, to take credit for the Soviet legacy and, at the same time, be viewed in the same light as the emperors and czars of old. Therefore, he's had to bring back and reaffirm the old, imperial myths and values—and to do that, he has to get Kyiv under his thumb. After all, it was the restored Kievan Rus that became Russia, the "Third Rome." Ukraine going its own way, claiming Kievan Rus as its legacy, moving away from Moscow, getting autocephaly for its own orthodox church—all this runs contrary to Russian state mythology.
These imperial myths are what define Russia, what it even means to be a Russian. Without them, Russia just stops being Russia in the eyes of many. Putin is convinced that if this social glue is disrupted, then Russia will just split up in pieces again—and if he allows that to happen, then his legacy is ruined. For him, there can be no separate Ukrainian language, culture, or history. That is where his mind is at, stuck in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Agreed, yes the strip club part of the palace was funny in many ways.
And the best option forward for everyone involved (including the russia) is to decolonize/end the russian empire.
What are you thinking exactly?
My main idea on why they'd escalate is because they're sure the EU and NATO will fold this time, definitely, for certain.
Escalate just so much that NATO won't act and cracks might form in nato. That was the strategy all along. Maybe this is a part of that.
I guess, but even a small fragment of NATO is more than a match for Russia, so that wouldn't be a winning strategy exactly.
It would be, that's why I think Russians won't be looking for a direct confrontation. They need something that's big enough to cause some panic, but not not enough for the big countries to start anything. Something they can blame someone else for. Or go for a non NATO country like Moldova.
Yeah, I can see Moldova being a better route for that.
They should try their luck in Afghanistan again.
That would put them in direct competition with us now that Trump wants the air base back and says he is willing to go to war with Afghanistan to do it.
I'm not a history guy, when was the last time invading Afghanistan went well?
They call that place the graveyard of empires for a reason, I don't think it's ever gone well.
I think it was back in 1219. It lasted until just 1227. Does 8 years count as went well? Or is that too short?
The Timurids did a pretty good job of it. Mind you they then moved on to India, which turned out pretty great for them.
Or Japan.
lots of these events that have occurred might have happened out of inertia. It might be that russians miscalculated and the war in Ukraine should have ended by now, and all these actions are part of a bigger plan