this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
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Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls
@FearfulSalad @brian
The Gambler's Fallacy even shows up in humor.
Hitchhiker: "thank you, but aren't you even a little worried picking up hitchhikers?"
Driver: "nah bro, the odds of a car having TWO serial killers is too tiny to worry about."
My mother used to tell me there was always one weirdo on every bus. I couldn't find them.
Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the "real" one.
brian@lemmy.ca The die doesn't know it just rolled a 1. History doesn't matter to it.
That's what the meme says, but probability doesn't work that way. If you want the result from a roll, what you've roller before has no bearing on the result from this roll. Thus the chance for a single d20 roll is always 1/20, or 5%.