this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
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[–] thatKamGuy@sh.itjust.works 20 points 1 week ago

Weirdly enough, it’s just the way probability works.

Once something stops being a possibility, and becomes a fact (ie. dice are rolled, numbers known) - future probability is no longer affected (assuming independent events like die rolls).

e.g. you have a 1/400 chance of rolling two 1s on a D20 back-to-back. But if your first roll is a 1, you’re back down to the standard 1/20 chance of doing it again - because one of the conditions has already been met.