this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
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Politics
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So there is an interesting concept in studies of authoritarian regimes, namely that a personalist authoritarian leader must maintain the illusion that they will be in power for the forceable future up until the last moment, if they don’t, then their whole power structure breaks down.
The dynamic of a personalist regime is one of competition between subordinates, with the leader acting as a key figure that arbitrates disputes between the subordinates and protects them from each other. In turn, the leader is able to extract loyalty and power from the subordinates through this role. This dynamic hinges on the idea that the leader will be there for the foreseeable future performing this role, the moment there is any sort of uncertainty, the system breaks down as the subordinates become more interested in shoring up their own power bases and positioning them selves to fight each other for their chance at the top spot, or a better position under the next leader, rather than maintaining the power of the current leader.
Regardless of the feasibility or practicality, the leader must maintain an internal fiction with in the regime that they will always be there, and that they have a plan to always be there. The subordinates don’t even have to believe it, they just need to think all the other subordinates believe it.