this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2025
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The joke of it is that these games don't even bother targeting "retail" players anymore. They're all hunting for the Whale Player - the individuals who will spend upwards of five or six figures on a game's loot boxes and other gimmicks.
I don't know what a "crash" looks like at this point. When your very model is "Free 2 Play" and your primary revenue stream is this tiny minority of players, what are we expecting the change? A bunch of these players aren't even in the US. They're gamers in ultra-wealthy Emirates states or failkids from Korea and Japan, with credit cards that have no real upper limit. And if they fail... so what? These are clones of clones. Reskinned copies of games that never had much of a production budget to begin with.
Or they're subscription based games that generate revenue off people who have simply forgotten to cancel their accounts. The Gym Membership enterprise model, where you're just collecting $15/mo from thousands upon thousands of people who got suckered in during the hype cycle and forgot they were getting billed.
This is where I think we might genuinely see a ceiling. If the supply of semiconductors ever hits a serious crunch, you're going to see the price of high end cards and consoles go well beyond the reach of retail gamers. And then we really will all be stuck on Stardew Valley, because that's the high line of computer graphics we can support.
But the idea that people will stop turning out new titles (or clones of clones of archaic titles) seems dubious. We're never going to have a cartridge graveyard. And we're never going to run out of three-person teams of novel developers pushing the next generation of Cult of the Lamb or Slay the Spire or Deep Rock Galactic.