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Next it goes to the senate. Which will need 60 votes. We know that's not happening.
If it does pass the Senate, it goes to Trump's desk. That's a veto 100%.
Oversight committees can delay and block subpoenas to get the files.
DOJ can refuse to comply.
These are the main factors. So will we get the files? Probably not. But it'll put Republicans on the spot for them.
Procedurally and realistically you're correct. However technically the "nuclear option" exists to reduce that to a simple majority. There is a 0% chance that will happen, since it didn't happen to end the 40+ day shutdown, no one is going to use it here.
Plus even if you did, Trump would veto it and it would all be for nothing, as you said.
There’s so many moving parts and so much corruption within the system. I don’t have high hopes for this, but I hope our rapist-in-chief gets what’s coming to him.
Remember, releasing the files is extremely popular with Republican voters, to the point where anyone who votes no is going to look like they're basically in bed with the evil deep state pedophile cabal hiding under the pizza parlor.
That means for them to kill it in the House, a whole bunch of GOP reps have to face a firestorm from their constituents.
If it does in the Senate, it's because they let that firestorm spread to every GOP senator too.
And if it makes it to Trump, and he's forced to veto it? That might just be the final nail in his presidency. His polularity is already tanking. This could kill it completely.
Certainly agree on the veto. But I feel like this is a perfect chance to split the opposition. Not going to pretend how that political ammunition would best be used, but it seems endless.