this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2023
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The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.

Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.

“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.

“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.

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[–] Tester@lemm.ee 58 points 2 years ago (23 children)

I think many people are forgetting that the larger army, vastly outnumbering Ukrainian resources in numbers, has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion. And only presents a problem because the 2 countries cannot reliably use air power to overcome 1st WW trench warfare. Russia has defenses, but no ability to move forward. They are just trying to hold on to what they took in those first few months and are very slowly failing at that. If Ukraine can keep going, supported by the West, Russia will lose. I do not think Russia will use nukes -- any use of a nuke is basically on Russia's own land -- according to them -- and will affect them as much as Ukraine. But the question of ending the war is an interesting one. Do we see Russia continuing the war if they lose most of their ill-gotten territorial gains? What happens to those insecure areas? Are people going to rebuild, i.e. invest scarce resources in unstable areas? Or will they just become dead zones, DMZ borders?

[–] Flaps@hexbear.net 55 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago) (81 children)

Ukraine can keep going, supported by the West, Russia will lose.

You have a whole entire counteroffensive that shows the exact opposite.

Also

has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion.

Have you taken a look at a map of the current situation? That's just straight up bullshit

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[–] tuga@hexbear.net 54 points 2 years ago (3 children)

has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion

Gotta have a highly specific definition of "victory" to say something like this

[–] Tester@lemm.ee 23 points 2 years ago (6 children)

Well, let's use the Russian definitions... Did they take Kiev within 3 days? No. Did they hold Kherson? No. Are they able to stop the Ukrainians? No. There has not been any significant ground taken by the Russians in the last few months. Were they able to defend against Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea? No. After losing their Moskva flagship, they still are suffering attacks on infrastructure, warchips, and bridges. So I am happy to use the limited in context term of victory, while not being so pendantic that it loses meaning.

[–] 420blazeit69@hexbear.net 41 points 2 years ago (4 children)

Did they take Kiev within 3 days?

This was never a goal, as even American military analysts will tell you.

Did they hold Kherson?

This is outside the separatist regions.

Are they able to stop the Ukrainians?

The front has not moved appreciably in almost a year.

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[–] Nightcastle@hexbear.net 29 points 2 years ago (14 children)

Did they take back all the Russian speaking territories actually in question? Yes

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[–] Annakah69@hexbear.net 32 points 2 years ago (5 children)

Ukraine will run out of material before they reach the Azov sea. You can calculate this yourself based on the verified losses and land gained. In addition manpower isn't infinite for Ukraine.

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[–] nat_turner_overdrive@hexbear.net 25 points 2 years ago (35 children)

I'm pretty sure once Ukraine has thrown away enough lives trying to get to the first line of defense, Russia is going to use their mobilized army to roll up the coast line all the way up to Transnistria.

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