We are now beginning to enter the stage of the war where Russia is unable to sustain a general offensive all the way up and down the frontline and must resort to terrorism to project fear and the illusion of unstoppable, corrupted power.

Expect more and more of this crap as Russia is less and less able to credibly fight a ground war.

Remember, acts of terrorism definitionally rely on propaganda creating mass panic for their power as if the perpetrators of the terrorism possessed true power they would have resorted to actual coordinated military action such as fighting on the frontline or taking territory.

In otherwords if Russia chooses to attempt something like this, it is by definition a sign of extreme weakness on their part as was the lazy attempt to claim Ukraine tried to assassinate Putin.

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[–] Rion@lemmy.ca 17 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Why would it be unreasonable for Ukraine to take out Putin? It’s a war.

[–] amorangi@lemmy.nz 12 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The only way this war ends is with Putin's death.

[–] MBech@feddit.dk 9 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I'm not sure it would end it. The next person to take command would have everything to gain by winning what Putin couldn't. He'd also have everything to lose, but in Russia, you don't make smart choices, you make dumb choices and blame someone else when you fuck it up.

[–] Tuuktuuk@kbin.melroy.org 3 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

I think the next guy has a high likelihood to recognize that the war cannot be won. Putin probably knows the same by now, but he has no other options than to continue (unless he's okay with dying, but he isn't).

A successor has the option to declare something akin to a coup (even if it really isn't one) and claim that "it was Putin, not the new Russia I am leading!", getting the soldiers out of Ukraine and starting the negotiations. (Or rather: starting negotiations for withdrawing Russian troops from Ukraine and drafting a real peace deal.)

[–] Asfalttikyntaja@sopuli.xyz 1 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Bold of you to assume that Russians make smart decisions.

[–] Tuuktuuk@kbin.melroy.org 2 points 7 hours ago

They might, if everything left is really really really dumb.

If Putin gains his own detached head, whoever comes after him will be politically much weaker. No matter who the leader will be, even if Putin, the Russia will very soon have to stop using mercenaries and must switch to conscripts. For a weak leader, it might be very difficult to squeeze people into the meat grinder. I'm not sure if such a follower-up would really have any way of continuing the war. No economy means no soldiers – except through conscription. And I don't think Russians would accept a conscription. If the fledgeling autocrat cannot continue the war, what options does he really have other than the smart one? Let go of what must go so that at least a part of the Russia will stay together.

Soviet and Russian history has a lot of points where change of leadership was a linchpin that very suddenly turned the previous heroes into detested monsters. How Russians started talking about Jeltsin very soon after Putin rose to power is actually yet another example of that. There is precedence for putting all the blame to the predecessor and then going for big reforms.

Putin will eventually lose his place. The less Kremlin has that event under control, the better for everyone outside Kremlin. Therefore, better get rolling with it, asap!
It's entirely possible that the replacement will really be as bad, but if Kremlin gets to decide on the follower, then the follower will definitely be as bad as Putin. Or worse. Because when it comes to war strategy, Putin is clueless, but micromanages all the time. If someone is otherwise the same but has some understanding of military strategy, things will only go south.

[–] VindictiveJudge@lemmy.world 6 points 22 hours ago (1 children)

I'd argue the smart thing when succeeding Putin would be to end the war, tell the world it's a new Russia, and start getting Russian assets unfrozen.

[–] Tuuktuuk@kbin.melroy.org 2 points 17 hours ago (1 children)

That being the smart thing from our perspective means preciously little for the Russia, though.

The will to live in a powerful country goes over everything else in the Russia. But, I do agree that a form of that could work indeed.

[–] VindictiveJudge@lemmy.world 2 points 16 hours ago (1 children)

To be clear, they don't need to be sincere; it's in the best interest of anyone following Putin to unfuck their economy, get on the good side of the oligarchs, and modernize their military. The quickest and easiest way to do that is to get out of Ukraine, blame everything on Putin, and at least put on a veneer of civility until things are going smoothly for them. Even if they want to continue expanding the Russian empire, they really need to get out of the current quagmire first.

[–] Tuuktuuk@kbin.melroy.org 2 points 16 hours ago

I agree.

What I meant (but said very very unclearly) was that there's a high chance Russians will.simply fail to recognize this. I speak quite a lot with Russians living here in Finland and they are some seriously brainwashed bunch!
Their lack of situational awareness regarding this war is somehow... Even fascinating?