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He doesn't have to broaden support to win. Biden just has to lose support.
In 2020, Biden won 81,283,501 to 74,223,975.
But the popular vote doesn't count.
What put him over the top were:
Georgia - 2,473,633 to 2,461,854 = 11,779 votes. Pennsylvania - 3,459,923 to 3,378,263 = 81,660
Michigan - 2,804,040 to 2,649,852 = 154,188 Wisconsin - 1,630,866 to 1,610,184 = 20,682
Arizona - 1,672,143 to 1,661,686 = 10,457
Biden didn't win by 7,059,526 votes. All those extra votes in places like California and New York didn't count.
He won by 278,766 votes in 5 key states. That's it.
Now, since we aren't pushing hard on vote by mail this year, how many voters do you think will disengage and not vote?
God that’s fucking depressing! Thanks for putting it in perspective.
Biden won because of the youth vote, millennials and gen z out numbered boomers and silent generation for the first time.
But this year he's only up 4 points in the 18-34 demo.
It's fucking insane seeing so many people insisting we can't talk about these issues while there's still time to fix it.
Biden just doesn't want to actually do things that would get him votes. Even something basic like doing interviews, it's like the 2024 Biden campaign is just going to be hiding him in a closet while the media talks about how bad trump would be and all of Bidens aides claim he's a completely different person off camera
I really don't think it will be enough this time. And it's fucking terrifying
Just a note that polling of Millenials and younger is known to be wildly inaccurate since we don't follow traditional news media, so extrapolating a sample to a state or national value is functionally guesswork.
This is why polling stated Obama wasn't going to be re-elected and everyone was expecting a big Romney win.
Not sure where you're getting that. FiveThirtyEight's presidential model doesn't solely rely on polling, but it's the prominent factor, and it was bang on that year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/nov/07/nate-silver-election-forecasts-right
Got a source for that "everyone was expecting a Romney win" thing?
Saying things like "Well, they're totally different off camera" sank both Dole and Clinton as well.
Pics or it didn't happen.
Add to that the lack of will to do debates...
Neither are doing primary debates, and there's no way a general debate happens.
We won't see either even attempt to answer a difficult question, and they'll both still fuck up the easy ones.
Biden I get, the sitting President doesn't have to debate.
In Trump's case, he has nothing to gain by it, so that also makes sense.
Once they lock down the candidacy though, there had better be debates.
It's tradition to do 3, last time they only did 2.
I'd be surprised if they do 1, especially if either of them answer a difficult question.
So much shit has been thrown out the window already.
The game isn't to be the best person to fix America. The game is not fucking up.
They tell people what they think online and on tv, you don't need a debate. The only thing that can happen to old men like Trump and Biden on a debate stage is them fucking up.
A massive win on stage wouldnt change their base or sway people more than pundits hammering your point eloquently for you, but a fuck up would end them, so they don't go.
Keep in mind that it's still February. The election is in November. If he did all of that now, the energy it generates would be worn off by then. Hopefully the strategy is to gear up the campaign in summer.
You're right...
Got to remember Biden is 81 years old and isn't capable of campaigning for a long time...
Surely nothing bad will happen if he waits till the last minute. And it's not like being able to work for 7 months is a constitutional requirement to be president.
/S
Even with the /s, this is insane. Campaigning is all about marketing, and timing is critical in marketing. Christ.
I have to let this out, and your comment was the trigger. Lucky you.
Three things are pissing me off in this election in particular.
It's utterly insane; the electoral college needs to be dumped, there's no doubt about that, and adoption of approval voting, or ranked choice -- almost anything would be better. But even with these issues, the US managed to work for 200 years, until the past few election cycles, and it's just gotten insane.
I'm annoyed the primaries are a foot note in both parties. I know Trump has the gop by the balls but damn.
Biden camp is running the same playbook from 2020. Lay low and hope Trump pisses off more people than Biden does.
Honestly it must be why the GOP keep pushing the genocide joe narrative. Joe won't give them a noose so they are fishing for liberal issues they don't give a shit about hoping his own base will turn on him. Sucks to be the GOP though because how do you pivot from that?
Politics is disgusting and Dems seem to think defense is the only way. For me, it's a shit way to play the game and all it does is run out the clock.
🤝
I hate that it seems the only way to win is to use the immoral tactics used by conservatives.
It only seems that way because dems have no balls. I hate the fact the gop latched onto trump but it paid off for them many times over. Was it a risky strategy? I'd say so but in the end it was the old way of doing things that was sure to cost the gop.
The undecideds are people who aren't paying attention. It's easy to not be sure who you'll vote for when your opinion is based on whatever stray bits of politics pop up around you despite your best efforts to remain ignorant. And those people are just as likely to run into lies and propaganda, but won't have the knowledge required to spot the inaccuracies.
The problem is, I don't believe they are all sock puppets. It would be foolish to think that people on the left aren't as susceptible to disinfo as people on the right. Plus the complaints are totally valid. Biden is too old, he is supporting Israel's genocide, he is just barely a centrist, and he will just enable the status quo instead of affecting real positive change in the country. What's at stake is much more dire. I'm willing to wait another 4 years to try again for a more progressive candidate rather than gamble now on a less than 1% chance of a slightly better candidate and a 99% chance of trump and the likely end of free and fair elections.
All true. In the US, you don't have to win a majority to win the election.
But I highly doubt that Democrats are going to sit this one out.
And if they just show up to the same degree as in 2020, Trump still needs to broaden support in the key swing states to actually win them. If he's not doing it nationally, chances are he's not doing it in the battlegrounds.
Without vote by mail, they won't show up to the same degree. Trump's vote was driven by in person votes, Biden by vote by mail.
That's not going to be true this year. And like I showed, the margins in those key states is super slim.
Georgia - Trump +6 to +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Pennsylvania - Trump +2 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin - Trump +2 to +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Arizona - Trump +3 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Biden can't win without these states and if the election were today?
Whatever the polls say, do you have any idea what a mess the GOP in Michigan is? We're having a primary and two competing caucuses because we have two heads of the state party and they are bankrupt. There is a lawsuit to sell their headquarters to pay their bills. And we came out for abortion rights big time in 22, which Republicans continue to shoot themselves in the fucking head with.
There is zero ground game. I can't believe it's even possible for Trump to win here, polls be damned.
Michigan became a wierd place last week.
On top of GOP issues, a few dems started fighting against biden for the primary
GOP sinking means MI probably turns blue, right?
Biden win here in 2020. Democrats took full control of state government in 22 for the first time since 1983. Arguably the biggest failure of the "red wave."
Will that hold? I don't know but while there are pockets of strong support for Trump, we don't seem to like his endorsed candidates one bit. Given their disarray, I don't see a path to victory for them. But we do have a very large Muslim population which is currently upset with Biden, so it's not all roses.
I've been watching and it's absolutely hilarious, none of which is going to impact the general election.
If none of it matters in the general then nothing matters. Money doesn't matter. Organization and unity don't matter. I'm not an expert, but I just don't believe you are correct. For decades I've heard how important ground game is. Heard Hillary's (among others) loss blamed on it.
I just don't see how that can be right.
It's neat how we kept DeJoy in charge at the post office after his fuckery in the last election.
Why that asshole has not been removed is still beyond me.
Don't forget that the ROC had a catastrophic midterm. Also Jan 6th and Roe/Wade were no jokes and will continue to not be joking.
It's also February. November is coming but alot can change and people can decide to vote after summer. Most people think it's a decision that can be made later.
Most of those votes weren't for Biden though they were against trump. Trump is still trump last I checked so I will vote against him again and hope for the best