This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/guildwars2 by /u/ShinyMeta on 2025-07-21 16:57:18+00:00.
Hello Again. It's Beta Season again, and that means DATA.
Nothing like an upcoming beta to get me to dust off my unfinished projects. The core of this project started nearly three years ago, and it's about damn time it saw the light of day.
For those who don't know, we're the guys behind the 1.1 million Fractal Encryption data set, the BLC Beta Data events and publication, 40k Mystic Clover data, and the Lunar New Year Addict Confessionals.
tl;drs (look below for more info)
- What should the reader of this post know?
- Forging same-type exotic weapons is currently kinda bad
- What is the chance to get a precursor from forging exotic weapons?
- ~0.83%(+/-.06%) or about 1 in 120 forges.
- Is Dawn or Dusk more likely to drop from Greatswords?
- Forging Greatswords has the same chance to get a precursor as other weapons, which is then split 50/50 between Dawn and Dusk.
- Are all the non-precursor weapons equally likely?
- No, the droprate for level 80 weapons is slightly different from sub-80 weapons.
- Will it be profitable ever again?
- Probably not for a while, the starter kits from Wizards Vault containing free precursors has really hurt this part of the market, and ecto prices make salvaging a much better option as well.
Kick Stater Data Spreadsheet link
100k Forges Spreadsheet link
What the f*** is Kick Stater?
Kick Stater is a crowdfunded data system we have operated a few times from the Overflow Trading Discord to democratize ownership of the data, and keep the data quality consistent. Through that system we funded 42,500 forges of exotic weapons, with a total upfront cost of nearly 60,000 gold. The rest of the 100k forge data comes from our personal data collections, and that of a few other data gurus.
How did you get to these conclusions?
There are a number of statistical formulas and principles used. In the spreadsheets you can find all of the source data, some graphs visualizing some of the conclusions, as well as the binomial and chi-square calculations.
I also uploaded a video "lecture" to my Youtube channel where I explain each conclusion and an overview of relevant statistics topics
What does the upcoming BETA have to do with DATA?
GW2 betas allow you to create special characters with the new beta features, but DOES NOT save the results of anything you do on those characters. This means you effectively have a "sandbox copy" of your bank, wallet and shared inventory, to test out silly things without having to accept the consequences, or just double the amount of data you would collect on live anyway!
The GW2 servers will copy the state of your account upon creating your first Beta Character for the beta period, and all future beta characters you create will share that beta/sandbox account state. That beta/sandbox state will not reset/re-copy no matter how many other characters you create/delete/recreate, so it's important to put anything you want to access in your bank/shared slots BEFORE you make your first character!
Thanks again for reading!
Shiny and Selici