Hardware

None of this makes any sense unless there is some super secret versions of these AI that they're holding back from the public. Nothing about the current models is what they claim it to be. Its a useful tool, sure, but its really only as useful as the skill of the operators, and I don't mean "prompt engineer" or whatever other bullshit you call that. I mean actually developers and engineers who have had the time in the trenches to know what is going to work or not work.

Use AI to generate a codebase for an app. Get to an MVP. Then, try and make a change. I dare you to. Its a fucking disaster. These models are not up to the task. Its a structural issue. They have no conception of how things fit together. They're constantly just making shit up whole-cloth, and beyond that, they're just gaslighting you to sound smarter than they are.

They can be used to make demos. They can be used to solve already solved, well trodden problems. But thats really about it. You'll spend 4 hours trying to get it to change one basic component. They're exponentiating the amount of calories burned, but not the amount of work done.

And the only ones that will actually grow are Chinese companies that dont rely on western owned semiconductor fabs. Kind of odd that none of the "national security" idiots in the US have started ringing the alarms about this yet. At this point China will fully catch up (at least in terms of RAM manufacturing) in just a few years and eat up the entire consumer segment.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/chinas-cxmt-and-ymtc-to-expand-memory-output

Yeah not just purely consumer manufacturers, some of the business manufacturers as well. Just the other day I got a newsletter from HPE with the subject "HPE Supply Constraints Update" which was pretty shocking tbh. They are changing the way quotes work and reserve the right to change prices at any moment for longer running orders. And they reserve the right to cancel any order at any time for whatever reason to "provide maximum flexibility in these unprecedented times". They also point to HPE Financial Services and their refurb products.

Many companies are hurting hard, prices fluctuate too much for them to react to properly. For 2026 many of the models were already built or the hardware required reserved, but as those run out this year, it will be hard for them to have any kind of 2027 line-up. A lot of people in the industry are fearing the entire thing might collapse somewhere this year or next year.

With all those huge orders for servers and datacenters, a lot of the regular supply chain is bypassed, so nobody is making any money on that except for a select few companies (for example Nvidia and Foxconn). At the same time there is little to none availability for either finished products or the raw materials (mainly chips and copper) to build new stuff.

All this, so some guys can dream becoming millionaires by posting AI slop onto social media in the hopes of more ad revenue.

So the ultra rich can buy it all for cheap.

but it is worth all "the cat making latte videos" isn't it?