Regarding Ben Roethlisberger, name me one eligible NFL QB who has started in three Super Bowls but is not in the Hall of Fame.
Also, I think it's fair to say that playing QB in the AFC North is more difficult than playing QB in the AFC West or NFC South. There's no climate-controlled indoor stadium or sunny southern California in the AFC North. Instead, some QBs get their brains bashed in by the Ravens and Bengals defenses, often in poor weather conditions. It's hard for a QB to keep his numbers pretty in a situation like that.
Overall, this is how I see the pre-2016 era of NFL QBs, listed in chronological order by entry into the league:
In on the first ballot
- Peyton Manning
- Tom Brady
- Drew Brees
- Aaron Rodgers
In, but not on the first ballot
- Kurt Warner
- Eli Manning
- Ben Roethlisberger
Probably in
- Russell Wilson
Borderline
- Philip Rivers
- Matt Ryan
Hall of Very Good
- Donovan McNabb
- Carson Palmer
- Tony Romo
- Alex Smith
- Matthew Stafford
- Cam Newton
As for the QBs who have entered the NFL since 2016, Patrick Mahomes is the only one with a clear path to the Hall of Fame. The rest of them still have a lot to prove, but also a lot of time to prove it.