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100% if an AI can do the job just as well (or better) then there's no reason we should be making a person do it.
Part of the problem with AI is that it requires significant skill to understand where AI goes wrong.
As a basic example, get a language model like ChatGPT to edit writing. It can go very wrong, removing the wrong words, changing the tone, and making mistakes that an unlearned person does not understand. I’ve had foreign students use AI to write letters or responses and often the tone is all off. That’s one thing but the student doesn’t understand that they’ve written a weird letter. Same goes with grammar checking.
This sets up a dangerous scenario where, to diagnose the results, you need to already have a deep understanding. This is in contrast to non-AI language checkers that are simpler to understand.
Moreover as you can imagine the danger is that the people who are making decisions about hiring and restructuring may not understand this issue.
The good news is this means many of the jobs AI is "taking" will probably come back when people realize it isn't actually as good as the hype implied
Not quite. It's more that a job that once had 5-10 people and perhaps an "expert" supervisor will just be whittled down to the expert. Similarly, factories used to employ hundreds and a handful of supervisors to produce a widget. Now, they can employ a couple of supervisors and a handful of robot technicians to produce more widgets.
It’s just that I fear that realisation may not filter down.
You honestly see it a lot in industry. Companies pay $$$ for things that don’t really produce results. Or what they consider to be “results” changes. There are plenty of examples of lowering standards and lowering quality in virtually every industry. The idea that people will realise the trap of AI and reverse is not something I’m enthusiastic about.
In many ways AI is like pseudoscience. It’s a black box. Things like machine learning don’t tell you “why” it works. It’s just a black box. ChatGPT is just linear regression on language models.
So the claim that “good science” prevails is patently false. We live in the era of progressive scientific education and yet everywhere we go there is distrust in science, scientific method, critical thinking, etc.
Do people really think that the average Joe is going to “wake up” to the limitations of AI? I fear not.
They don't want to train new hires to begin with. A lot of work that new hires relied on to get a foothold on a job is bloat and chores that nobody wants to do. Because they aren't trusted to take on more responsibility than that yet.
Arguably whole industries exist around work that isn't strictly necessary. Does anyone feel like telemarketing is work that is truly necessary for society? But it provides employment to a lot of people. There's much that will need to change for us to dismiss these roles entirely, but people need to eat every day.
Exactly this.
I fully agree, however doing some mundane work for a few weeks while you learn is useful. You can't just jump straight into the deep work.
Lol it's not ChatGPT screwing over Gen Z. It's the rich business owners who care more about profits than people.
It was already happenning in things like Software Developmnt with outsourcing: all the entry level stuff was sent away to be done by people who cost a fraction of what even a Junior Dev would cost in the West, and that's exactly the stuff that one starts one's career with.
As someone who lives in the east where these jobs are outsourced to, it's not like junior devs here get to work on them either. Most outsourced stuff is assigned to people higher up. The talented juniors are left sitting on the bench as retainer manpower, others are in an endless string of unpaid internships.
The job situation is more similar then you think all over the world
In an ideal world, people would start receiving better and more fulfilling opportunities when their mundane tasks are automated away. But that's way too optimistic and the world is way to cynical. What actually happens is they get shitcanned while the capitalists hoard the profits.
We need a better system. One that, instead of relentlessly churning for the impossibility of infinite growth and funneling wealth upwards, prioritizes personal financial stability and enforces economic equallibrium.
We need to start instituting universal basic income to compensate for the job losses. It’s inevitable. We have to protect the person, not the jobs.
So what would that mean for the company itself long-term? If they're not training up their employees, and most of the entry level is replaced by text generator work, there would be a hole as executives and managers move out of the company.
It seems like it would be a recipe for the company to implode after a few years/decades, assuming that that the managerial/executive positions aren't replaced also.
What are these decades? Is that something longer than next quarter?
we are going to hold the month open a few more days
there would be a hole as executives and managers move out of the company.
And why would those executives and managers care about that? They just need to make sure they time their departures to be early enough that those holes don't impact the share prices. Welcome to modern capitalism where the C suites only goal is to make sure they deploy their golden parachute while the company still has enough cash left over to pay them.
Yeah, it should be obvious by now after 3 decades of 1980s-MBA style corporate management (and a Financial Crash that happenned exactly along those lines) that "the bonus comes now, the problems come after I've moved on" measures will always get a go-ahead from the suits at the top floor.
That sounds like someone else's problem.
Bro service industry jobs and similar are booming. Train under a plumber, electrician or gassist and you will be set for years
Where I'm from even those jobs pay shitty salaries that haven't kept up with the cost of living. I know electricians who can barely afford rent.
Suggesting an alternative industry as an escape from AI doesn't work. The media tried this with the millions of truck drivers, pushing them to go into software development 5-10 years ago, as we started conversations around the impending automation of their careers.
The thought at the time, and this seemed like an accurate forecast to me, was that the tech industry would continue to grow and software engineers would be extraordinarily safe for decades to come. I was already in this profession, so I figured my career was safe for a long while.
Then a massive AI boom happened this year that I hadn't anticipated would come for 15ish more years, and similarly AI experts are now pushing up predictions of AGI by literally decades, average estimates being under 10 years now instead of 30 years.
At the same time, the tech industry went through massive layoffs. Outsourcing, massive increases in output with generative AI automating away repetitive copy/paste programming or even slightly more complicated boilerplate that isn't strictly copy/paste, amongst natural capitalist tendencies to want to restrict high value labor to keep it cheap.
Those people who shifted away from truck driving and towards software engineer 4+ years ago, thinking it was a "safe path" and now being told that it's impossible to find a junior dev position might become desperate enough to change paths again. Maybe they'll take your advice and join a trade school, only to find in 4 years we'll hit massive advancements in robotics and AGI that allows general problem solving skills from robots in the real world.
We already have the tech for it. Boston dynamics has showcased robots that can move more than fluently enough to be a plumber, electrician, etc. Now we just need to combine generative AI with senses and the ability to process information from those senses and react (this already works with images, moving to a video feed and eventually touch/sound/etc is a next step).
While everyone constantly plays a game of chicken, trying to move around this massive reserve army of labor, we'll see housing scalpers continue to raise rents, and cost of living becoming prohibitive for this growing class of underemployed or unemployed people. The reserve army of labor, when kept around 5-10% of the population, serves as an incentive for people to be obedient workers and not to rock the bed too much. That number growing to 20-50% is enough to rock the bed, and capitalists will advocate for what they've already advocated in the third world, a massive reduction or total annihilation of welfare, so millions more can starve to death.
We already have millions of people dying a year due to starvation, and nearly a billion people are malnourished due to lack of food access. Raising this number is a logical next step for capitalists as workers try to fight for a share of the automated economy.
governments need to take seriously what we are looking at in the next 40 years. There IS going to be less work, and less need for it. We can no longer play a game of work = virtue and that you must work to live.
If we fail to address this we will be complicit in a slow genocide
The problem is the concept of work hasn't shifted to keep up with the technological reality that has been created. Jobs should slowly be phased out. We need a new economical concept to take hold that doesn't rely solely on class and fear to make it trundle along. Jobs should be what you do to grow your own fruit and veggies for fun, while the administration and maintenance of basically everything should be left to technology. Wealth and wealth accumulation should no longer exist or be seen as anything other than childish and irrelevant.
"Haha best I can do is lower wages and more homelessness"
I think AI is a very good example of science advancing much faster than wisdom in society. I think as these large companies continue to implement AI to increase profits while simultaneous driving out the working class, it’s only going to further drive a wedge between the upper and lower class. I foresee a “dark age” of AI characterized by large unemployment and a renewed fight focus on human rights. We might already be seeing the early stages of this in some industries like fast food and with the Hollywood strikes.
We might already be seeing the early stages of this in some industries like fast food and with the Hollywood strikes.
It's not even a might, we are absolutely seeing the early stages of this. The dark age will also involve vast amounts of misinformation and just plain bad information spewed out by AI writing tools because they're great at that, which will make it more and more difficult to find true information about anything. We're going to be snowed in by a pile of AI garbage, and it will happen faster than anyone is prepared for because speed and amplification are the whole point of these tools.
The best outcome so far is that this issue is prompting more workers to unionize.
And the funny part is that ChatGPT isn't good enough at anything to be trusted with doing it alone. You still need an expert on the subject matter to proofread anything that will be seen by the public or used to make a business decision.
You can say the same for entry level employees though. I'm not trusting anyone new to post without review.
Granted I rather the company pay someone so they can be taught and eventually become autonomous over time.
It's not just Gen Z, everyone's jobs are at risk as AI improves and automates away human labor. People who think that with exponential rate of progress of AI there will continue to be an abundance of good jobs are completely delusional. Companies hire people out of necessity, not some goodness of the heart. If machines can do everything humans can do and better, then companies will hire less people and outsource to machines. Sure there will be people working on the bleeding edge of what AI isn't yet capable of, but that's a bar that's only going to get higher and higher as the performance advantage gap of humans over machines reduces.
Of course none of this would be an issue if we had an economic system that aligned technological progress with improved quality of life and human freedom, but instead we cling on to antiquated systems of the past that just disproportionately accrue wealth to a dwindling minority while leaving the rest of civilization at their mercy. Anyone with any brain or sense of integrity realizes how absurd this is, and it's been obvious we need a Universal Basic Income for a long time. The hope I have is that Andrew Yang explained it eloquently 4 years ago and it resonated way stronger than I expected with the American population, so I think in a few years when AI is starting to automate any job where one doesn't need a 160 IQ, people will see the writing on the wall and there will finally be the political capital to implement a UBI.
Good thing our governments are totally on top of making sure this doesn't cause some kind of crisis /s
I am a software engineer and I frequently find myself admiring getting things done without requiring an internet connection. Access to information and instant communication is amazing but it’s also overwhelming. I really wouldn’t mind living in a simpler time
I like to compare modern LLM to Excel or calculators in the past. Some years ago a company would have an in-house team of accountants. Then came Excel and now a single accountant can do the job for 10 companies. Let's now consider programmer: currently a project manager oversees a team of programmers, most of whom are only responsible for mundane work of typing out code. With AI a single worker will be able to perform more productive than that team of programmers, because they will offload the boring work to AI and focus all their attention to what AI is perhaps incapable of.
What this article is really saying, which I agree with, is that AI improves productivity ,just like perhaps the steam engines did in the 1800's. But this time the problem is we won't increase the output and let the workers work more efficiently and earn more money, because it's not manufacturing jobs which were limited by technology that this is influencing. It's office jobs, which the economy has a pretty much fixed demand for. Workers will not improve their productivity, they will just be replaced because their work can be offloaded to a machine capable of doing that same jobs better in every significant way.
My gawd, zoomers are so effed. I have loads of internships but I'm sure getting a job will be so hard. My internship right now encouraged me to apply for a open job but my application was denied due to lack of experience! Granted, I still have a year left of school to do but still its government they take months to hire and by then, I'll be close to graduating! I dunno, I'm just going to hold out hope and wish someone will hire me.