TwinkleToes

Fo Sho. I guess what I'm saying is it's still amazing how truly awful he is at it. And it screams how utterly desperate and terrible Russia's position is, despite their bluster and obvious failures, that they are somehow winning.

You can understand why they are trying to strong arm Ukraine into absurd concessions for almost nothing in return in terms of security guarantees - the war is not going well for Russia, they're still within a cab ride of their start position, destroyed their entire soviet arsenal inheritance, lost the Black Sea fleet, lost their 30-year Oil and Gas war chest, lost vital pieces of the Air Force's C&C, destroyed their primary oil export markets to Europe, wiped out their arms export industry, have made themselves a global pariah for decades, suffered 1 million casualties....etc etc etc.

And Trump is an obese octogenarian, who eats like a stoned toddler, and is likely to get his maneuverability clipped in the mid-terms. They're on a speed run to try and force an agreement that is more favorable to Russia than reality, never mind justice, should allow. This war will likely go down as one of the greatest self-owns in the history of foolhardy imperial misadventures. The scale of it is not far off of the Persians deciding to go teach that impudent Alexander a lesson. Trump's absurd tactics is, like so much of his entire schtick, based on complete bullshit and disastrous assumptions about how strong his position is. 4D Chess.

Curious whether a spectacular attack against Moscow during this period would be beneficial to Ukraine or not. Ukraine could always have fought a 'dirtier' version of this war, like how they blew up Dugin's daughter early on. They undoubtedly could be doing more terroristic type attacks in Russia, but one of Ukraine's supporters' valued concepts is the moral high ground. Since the Dugin bombing, they have only targeted high level military officials and a prominent Z Blogger with assassination attacks here and there.

The irony of the orange Moron withdrawing most support is that he has little remaining leverage to make either side do anything. The Art of the Deal, you see. 4D checkers.

If Ukraine launched a wave attack on Victory Day, is it more likely that would trigger a vicious response, demoralize Russians into believing this war isn't worthwhile, maybe both? It would definitely trigger a harsh response - but like the Tet offensive...which was a tactical disaster for North Vietnam...it did shock the U.S. so much that the war was seen as unwinnable afterwards. But - that's not a perfect example, because there is no Walter Kronkite in Russia, and public opinion doesn't count worth a sack of rotten beets.

Hard to say whether Ukraine should respect it and hope it translates to a ceasefire, or whether to really go for it and show the Russians and their leadership that they not only cannot win this war, but that they cannot protect themselves from embarrassment, and that it's not going to get better until they get serious about fucking off.

No serious minded person expects Russia to respect any truce anyways, in the short or long term. The only way to ensure long term peace is to destroy Russia's long term capabilities. Even with European support alone, they can probably continue to bleed out and degrade the Russian war machine for a long time yet. Funny, all Trump's bullshit bluster about how Ukraine 'doesn't have the cards'. They absolutely do. They have a lot more cards to play than Trump does.

This is a great way to call Trump's bluff and expose his true allegiance. Of course, Trump refuses this out of hand even though it's completely in-line with his talking points about wanting Europe to buy American arms and invest in their own defense. Yet - it's a flat no from him. Zelensky could have done this offer behind the scenes, but he does so publicly because he knows what the answer will be, and that it exposes Trump's true motivations.

This is a basic lying tactic he has used his entire life. Just keep repeating a complete and obvious lie, until people's brains break it down into "yeah that sounds right, I've heard that before". At that point, it's as useful as actually being true. He is the richest, most successful, winningest winner that ever won. Everyone except him is wrong, corrupt or a loo-zah. There's nothing magical about this demented toddler's mindset.

There's been traitors for as long as there's been warfare.

Flapping your arms and gums about WHAT he's done is less important to think about than WHY has he done this. It's ridiculous and irrational on it's face.

But - it makes perfect sense if you start from a place that this is a colossal distraction. But why? Well - ultimately, if you accept that Trump works for Putin, then consider that the Russians are unable to defeat Ukraine right now on the battlefield, given the support that they continue to get from Europe. Putin and Trump have collaborated to remove US support - mission accomplished. But - they don't have direct leverage over Europe to try and erode European support for ukraine as well. So - if you're starting from a place that you wanted Russia to win and that's the ONLY thing you care about...what would you do? How can you erode Europe's ability to support Ukraine?

Initiate a devastating global recession to destroy governments' ability to focus on supporting Ukraine, and hope that they crawl back to supporting their own economies.

That's the answer. This is ALL happening

a) because Russia is starting to lose, and will lose very bigly and very quickly...soon b) Trump is 80 years old, and his window of being able to help Putin is closing with every Big Mac and Diet Coke he eats c) Putin himself is in advanced age and probably declining health d) Russia's equipment reserves are passing replacement rate levels, which leads to a MAJOR degradation in their offensive potential. Things don't get a little worse - they're getting EXPONENTIALLY worse e) Since they can't directly stop European aid, they are trying to do it indirectly by initiating a global recession and trade war.

Just opinions, you're under no obligation to agree. But - what else makes sense? The only other thing I could reasonably accept if it wasn't 100% that Trump works for Russia, is that somehow along the tarriffs chain, that he is skimming a percentage, like a classic Mafia casino scam. He may well be doing that as well as aiding Russia. But he's certainly not doing all of this - and excluding Russia, Belarus and Hungary from tarriffs - for no particular reason at all. The reasons are fairly damn obvious.

This story comes out every year, when russia announces their normal conscription process. These enlistees a) go to basic training - which for Russians is totally insufficient to make a difference on the ukrainian battlefield, b) can't and haven't been used for offensive operations, c) Mostly cycle back to civilian life when they're done. This isn't special, it isn't news, and if he were stupid enough to rush these guys from their jobs as delivery drivers, baristas, IT support and tire shop technicians into the battlefields, the entirety of them would be chewed up in about 3 months. This isn't a story. This is their normal conscription process.

As is usually the case, Trump has badly overplayed his hand without actually having even a fraction of the leverage he assumes he does. The US is rapidly making themselves utterly irrelevant to the process. Ukraine seems to clearly understand that the only way for a lasting peace is to erode Russia's warmaking capability permanently. They can continue to fight at this intensity with drones and small territorial exchanges for a long, long time yet, even if the US fully withdraws all support.

Trump going further and actively aiding Russia is a) insane b) not implausible and c) would result in American deaths that he would then have to explain a justification for, in a war that is allegedly none of america's business anyways. No serious minded person expects Russia to abide by ANY peace deal in the long term, so from Ukraine's perspective, it makes much more sense to keep fighting. It's fight for your lasting freedom, or wait for another round of attempted enslavement.

The frantic speed run to try and strong arm Ukraine into an unjust peace is failing. It's very telling that they're turning the crazy up to 11, because he is nearly 80 years old, morbidly obese, lives on KFC and insane hatred. And if Russia could do any more than they currently are, they would have already done it. It's a ridiculous bluff, Ukraine and their European backers have called it. For Europe, the degree of danger is not abstract or a partisan issue to score cheap political points off of. They're going to give Ukraine what it needs to continue bleeding out Russia, at least long enough for Putin, Trump or both to die off.

Why would anyone agree to a complete capitulation, and paying reparations, and giving up land and people under the current conditions? Oh, and the US removes it's forces from the Baltics at the same time, Ukraine gets absolutely nothing except for a temporary ceasefire with no security guarantees.

I mean - it's just so completely obvious that Trump fully and completely works for the Russians. Full stop. They are coming with the exact same absurd Russian maximalist goals, zero concessions. But - what leverage do they have to tell Ukraine to accept it and that's that? Fine - pull your support, America. Ukraine still has cards to play. Agreeing to your terms is literally signing your own death warrant, now or later.

He works for the Russians, always has, these jackoff tarriffs which only seem to be against allies is meant to disrupt the focus on Ukraine's backers and force an immediate settlement where Ukraine only makes any concessions. It's clear as goddamned mid-day sun that everything he's doing is to unsettle NATO and get a win for Russia.

That proves several things, including his overall allegiances. It also suggests that Russia is truly desperate, doesn't think they will get more Ukrainian land than they currently have, and want to freeze the conflict to call it a victory. The current strategy of thrusting small infantry squads anywhere you can fit them isn't exactly a solid occupation strategy. Ukraine can kill many more of them, eventually, with drones, snipers, artillery, and counter-assaults. There isn't a baked in guarantee that they're allowed to keep all the stolen land they're sitting on right now. Ukraine will kill most of them - eventually - and he'll be left with nothing but a bleeding wound as his army tries to do the harder piece of warfare - pacification.

It's in Ukraine's long term interests to keep killing the Russian army as long as it can sustain it's own losses.

This crazy old poopy pants manchild is serious in that he wants to blackmail people into giving him something for nothing. Thankfully, he's so fucking stupid, and has created a cesspool of asskissers around him who are incentivized to suck up rather than actually DO anything.

He talks, says a lot of crazy shit, then backs down, having done damage and not actually gotten anything. Like being in a shortbus with a hormonal chimp with a chainsaw. We're all just going to have to wait until his inevitable toilet stroke, and then watch the whole thing collapse.

Perhaps the "correct" way to view the collapse of Russia is like the Ottoman empire. The ottomans fell apart in stages over 300 years, gradually losing direct control and influence over the hinterlands, then suddenly in quick, sharp wars against their former vassals in Africa and the Balkans. Eventually, they end up with a relatively small rump state in Turkey. I think that's possibly the most likely outcome with Moscow/St. Petersburg retaining a much reduced ethnic russian rump state and nearly everything else breaking away. But - the point is - it happens slowly, in stages, and in response to losing wars. Longer than single human lifetimes, so it makes it harder to recognize and comprehend until it's all over.