@graydon @cstross @mirrorwitch are they on the verge of their own EUV equipment? Not even remotely close. It took ASML billions and decades. And their industries are built on IP theft. That's not jingoism; that's first-hand experience. Just as taking shortcuts and screwing foreigners is celebrated.
I've sampled CXMT's 10G1 parts. They're not competitive. They claim 80% yield (very low) at 50k WPM. Seems about right, as 80% of the DIMMs actually passed validation.
@graydon @cstross @mirrorwitch I've had to be an expert in this stuff for decades. Which has imparted a particular bit of knowledge.
That being: CHINA FUCKING LIES ALL THE TIME. Just straight up bald-faced lying because they must be *perceived* as super-advanced.
Even stealing as much IP as they possibly can, China is many years from anything competitive. Their most advanced is CXMT, which was 19nm in '19, and had to use cheats and espionage to get to 10nm-class.
@graydon @cstross @mirrorwitch so yes, that very much creates a disincentive to bomb their perceived enemies out of existence. For all the talk, they are fully aware of the state of things and that they are not domestically capable of getting anywhere near TSMC.
At the same time though, they are also monopolists. They engage in dumping to drive competitors out of business. So forcing the world to buy sub-standard parts from them is a good thing.
So it comes down to Winnie the Pooh's mood.