🌱Climate Change🌡⛈

A new LMU study estimates that land use changes in conjunction with climate change could lead to the loss of up to 38% of the Amazon rainforest by the end of the 21st century.

• Extreme droughts, human interventions and growing boat traffic are contributing to riverbank collapses that endanger riverside communities in the Brazilian Amazon.
• Four public river ports in Amazonas state have been damaged by riverbank collapses in the past decade, prompting concerns about the safety of Amazon port infrastructure.
• Brazil’s Federal Public Ministry is investigating alleged failures to prevent collapses at regional ports that connect riverside communities and provide access to essential services.

Abstract

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue1,2. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures3,4,5. Here we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions6,7,8.

• Refuse-derived fuel (RDF) — conglomerated waste often composed of up to 50% plastic — is being burned globally in waste-to-energy incinerators, cement kilns, paper mills, and by other industries.
• Proponents say RDF reduces fossil fuel use and produces cleaner energy, while diverting waste from landfills.
• Critics say a lack of monitoring often hides RDF’s true environmental and human health footprint, and that when burned alongside fossil fuels, the technology can significantly worsen pollution. Health issues potentially connected to RDF contaminants range from cancer to hormone disruption.
• That’s a major concern as RDF ramps up, with countries in the Global South especially starting to use and dispose of waste in this way. Burning RDF and the incineration of plastic waste has been linked to greenhouse gas emissions and also extremely toxic pollutants such as dioxins.

Indigenous and other Ecuadorians have lived with millions of gallons of toxic pollution from Texaco’s operations for decades. Now, those victims’ tax dollars will go to Chevron, which acquired Texaco in 2001.

Over a quarter century in the Ecuadorian Amazon, oil giant Texaco (now Chevron) perpetrated an ecological disaster: It dumped 3.2 million gallons of toxic waste, spilled 17 million gallons of crude oil and flared nearly 50 million cubic feet of methane gas. The company also collaborated with U.S. evangelical missionaries to forcibly displace Indigenous peoples from their oil-rich lands. The victims have received no compensation.

Scientists have long known that fires release substantial amounts of greenhouse gases and pollutants into the atmosphere.

However, estimating the total climate impact of fires is challenging.

Now, new satellite data has shed fresh light on the complex interplay between the climate and fires in different landscapes around the world.

It suggests that global emissions from fires are much higher than previously assumed.

In this article, we unpack the latest update to the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) – a resource that combines satellite information on fire activity and vegetation to estimate how fires impact the land and atmosphere.

The latest update to the database – explored in new research published in journal Scientific Data – includes data up to and including the year 2024.

It reveals that, once the data from smaller fires is included, fire emissions sit at roughly 3.4bn tonnes of carbon (GtC) annually – significantly higher than previous estimates.

It also shows that carbon emissions from fires have remained stable over the past two to three decades, as rising emissions from forest fires have been offset by a decline in grassland fire emissions.

The database update also illustrates how the amount of area burned around the world each year is falling as expanding agriculture has created a fragmented landscape and new restrictions on crop residue burning have come into force.

Landscape fires

Fire events vary widely in cause, size and intensity. They take place across the globe in many types of landscapes – deserts and ice sheets are the only biomes that are immune to fire.

When vegetation burns, it releases greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming. It also releases pollutants that cause local air pollution and, on a global scale, have a cooling effect on the climate.

Forest fires often generate considerable media attention, especially when they threaten places where people live.

However, the forest fires that make the news represent just a small fraction of all fires globally.

More than 95% of the world’s burned area occurs in landscapes with few trees, such as savannahs and grasslands.

Fires have helped maintain tropical savannah ecosystems for millions of years. Savannahs have the perfect conditions for fire: a wet season which allows grasses and other “fuels” to grow, followed by an extended dry season where these fuels become flammable.

Historically, these fires were ignited by lightning. Today, they are mostly caused – intentionally or accidentally – by humans.

And yet, despite their prevalence, these fires receive relatively little media attention. This is not surprising, as they have been part of the landscape for so long and rarely threaten humans, except for their impact on air quality.

Fires also occur in croplands. For example, farmers may use fire to clear agricultural residues after harvest, or during deforestation to clear land for cultivation.

The term “landscape fires” is increasingly used to describe all fires that burn on land – both planned and unplanned.

(The term “wildfire”, on the other hand, covers a subset of landscape fires which are unplanned and typically burn in underdeveloped and underinhabited land.)

Calculating the carbon emissions of landscape fires is important to better understand their impact on local air quality and the global climate.

New data

In principle, calculating carbon emissions from fires is straightforward. The amount of vegetation consumed by fire – or “fuel consumption” – in one representative “unit” of burned area has to be multiplied by the total area burned.

Fuel consumption can be determined through field measurements and satellite analysis.

For example, the burned area of a relatively small fire can be measured by walking around the perimeter with a GPS device. Fuel consumption, meanwhile, can be derived by measuring the difference in amount of vegetation before and after a fire, something that is usually only feasible with planned fires.

In practice, however, fires are unpredictable and highly variable, making accurate measurement difficult.

To track where and when fires occur, researchers rely on satellite observations.

For two decades, NASA’s MODIS satellite sensors have provided a continuous, global record of fire activity. To avoid too many false alarms, the algorithms these satellites use are built in a way so fires are flagged only when they burn an entire 500-metre grid cell.

However, this approach misses many smaller fires – resulting in conservative estimates of total burned area.

The latest update to the GFED includes, for the first time, finer-resolution satellite data, including from the European Space Agency’s “sentinel missions”.

This data shows that fires too small to be picked up by a satellite with a 500-metre spatial resolution are extremely common. So common, in fact, that they nearly double previous estimates of global burned area.

The data shows that, on average, 800 hectares of land – an area roughly the size of Australia – has burned annually over the past two decades.

The map below shows the frequency of fires around the world. Regions shaded in dark red burn, on average, 50-100% each year. In other words, fires occur annually or biannually. Regions in dark blue, on the other hand, are those where fires occur, but are very infrequent. Most regions fall in between these extremes.

The map shows that the areas most prone to fire are largely found in the world’s savannah and agricultural regions.

Global distribution of the average burned area over 2002-22, expressed as a percentage of the land area in each 0.25 by 0.25 degree grid cell. Based on the GFED dataset. Credit: Chen et al. (2023)

Falling burned area

Over recent decades, the total burned area globally each year has been declining.

This is largely due to land-use change in regions which used to have frequent fires.

For example, savannah is being converted to croplands in Africa. This transforms a frequently burning land-use type to one that does not burn – and creates a more fragmented landscape with new firebreaks which limit the spread of fire.

The decline in burned area is also due to the introduction of more stringent air quality regulations limiting crop residue burning in much of the world, including the European Union.

The amount of “fuel” – or biomass – in a unit area of land varies greatly. Arid grasslands are biomass-poor and, therefore, produce less carbon emissions when burned, whereas fuel consumption in tropical forests with peat soils is extremely high.

Maps of carbon emissions from fires closely resemble maps of burned area. However, they typically highlight biomass-rich areas, such as dense forests.

This is illustrated in the map below, which shows how fires in regions coloured dark red on the map produce, on average, 1,000-5,000 grams of carbon per square metre. In these places, much more carbon is lost during fires than gained through photosynthesis.

Meanwhile, much of the world’s savannah regions are coloured in yellow and orange on the map, indicating that fires here produce between 100-500 grams of carbon per square metre.

Fire carbon emissions, in grams of carbon per square metre. Based on the GFED emissions dataset. Credit: Van der Werf et al. (2025)

Rising forest fire carbon emissions

The boost in fire emissions captured by the latest version of the GFED is most pronounced in open landscapes, including savannahs, grasslands and shrublands.

Forest fire emissions, on the other hand, have barely changed in the updated version of the database. This is because most forest fires are relatively large and were already well captured by the coarse resolution satellite data used previously.

However, the trend in forest fire emissions is sloping upwards over the study period.

Overall, current estimates – which take into account the new data from smaller fires – suggest that, over 2002-22, global fire emissions averaged 3.4GtC per year.

This is roughly 65% higher than estimates set out in the previous update to the GFED, which was published in 2017.

For comparison, today’s fossil fuel emissions are around 10GtC per year.

Comparisons between fire and fossil fuel carbon emissions are somewhat flawed, as much of the carbon released by fires is eventually reabsorbed when vegetation regrows.

However, this is not the case for fires linked to deforestation or the burning of tropical peatlands, where regrowth is either much slower – or non-existent, if forests are converted to agriculture. These fires account for roughly 0.4GtC each year – just less than 12% of total fire emissions – and contribute directly to the long-term rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).

The traditional view of forest fires as “carbon-neutral” is increasingly uncertain as the climate changes due to human activity. Longer fire seasons, drier vegetation and more lightning-induced ignitions are increasing fire frequency in many forested regions.

This is most apparent in the rapidly-warming boreal forests of the far-northern latitudes. The year 2023 saw the highest emissions ever recorded by satellites in boreal forests, breaking a record set just two years before.

Moreover, the fires in boreal forests are becoming more intense – meaning they burn hotter and consume a larger fraction of vegetation. This, in turn, jeopardises the recovery of forests.

In cold areas, fires also cause permafrost to break down faster. This happens because fires remove an organic soil layer that has an insulating effect which prevents permafrost thaw.

The map below shows the dominant fire type in different regions of the world, including boreal forest fires (dark green), cropland fires (red), open savannah (darker yellow) and woody savannah (brown).

Dominant fire type around the world, based on total carbon emissions. Cropland fires are in red, woody savannah in brown, open savannah in dark yellow, grassland and shrubland in light yellow, peatland in black, tropical forest in aquamarine, temperature forest in mid-green and boreal forest in dark green. Credit: GFED5

Changing ‘pyrogeography’

Thanks to more precise satellite data we now know that fire emissions are higher than we thought previously, with the new version of GFED having 65% higher overall fire emissions than its predecessor.

However, all evidence suggests that emissions from fires have been stable over the past two to three decades. This is because an increase in forest fire emissions is being offset by a decline in grassland fire emissions.

The world’s changing “pyrogeography” is illustrated in the bar chart below, which breaks down annual fire emissions across different types of biome.

It shows how low-intensity grassland fires with modest fuel consumption – represented in yellow and brown – have declined over time, while high-intensity forest fires – illustrated in green colours – are becoming more prominent, albeit with substantial variability in emissions year-on-year.

Annual emissions across various fire categories, where yellow-brown represents savannah and grassland, orange cropland, black peatland and various shades of green the different forest-fire types. Credit: GFED5

The attendees were told that we as a society must put an immediate end to fossil fuels

suicidal but do what you want I guess...

Tensions grow after research in England finds there may not be enough water for planned carbon capture and hydrogen projects

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Using advanced satellite data and machine learning, the researchers tracked more than a decade of changes in aboveground forest biomass, the amount of carbon stored in trees and woody vegetation. They found that while Africa gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, widespread forest loss in tropical rainforests has since tipped the balance.

Between 2010 and 2017, the continent lost approximately 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass per year. That is equivalent to the weight of about 106 million cars. The losses are concentrated in tropical moist broadleaf forests in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa, driven by deforestation and forest degradation. Gains in savanna regions due to shrub growth have not been enough to offset the losses.

The Coalition’s tortuous decision to abandon the climate target was built on a big lie, that the recent increases in power prices are the result of the transition to renewables – even though wholesale electricity prices have been falling.

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German scientists warn global warming is accelerating faster than expected, raising the risk of a 3 °C rise by 2050 and forcing Europe to confront unthinkable adaptation plans.

related: Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed? (2025)

What was once considered a climate holy grail comes with serious tradeoffs. The world wants more of it anyway.

First the plant stalk is harvested, shredded, and crushed. The extracted juice is then combined with bacteria and yeast in large bioreactors, where the sugars are metabolized and converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide. From there, the liquid is typically distilled to maximize ethanol concentration, before it is blended with gasoline.

[...]

The cycle goes a little like this: Farmers, desperate to replace cropland lost to biofuel production, raze more forests and plow up more grasslands, resulting in deforestation that tends to release far more carbon than burning biofuels saves. But as large-scale production continues to expand, there may be insufficient land, water, and energy available for another big biofuel boom — prompting many researchers and climate activists to question whether countries should be aiming to scale these markets at all. (Thomson Reuters reported that global biofuel production has increased ninefold since 2000.) Biofuels account for the vast majority of “sustainable fuels” currently used worldwide.

An analysis by a clean transport advocacy organization published last month found that, because of the indirect impacts to farming and land use, biofuels are responsible globally for 16 percent more CO2 emissions than the planet-polluting fossil fuels they replace. In fact, the report surmises that by 2030, biofuel crops could require land equivalent to the size of France. More than 40 million hectares of Earth’s cropland is already devoted to biofuel feedstocks, an area roughly the size of Paraguay. The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation, or EUDR, cites soybeans among the commodities driving deforestation worldwide.

“While countries are right to transition away from fossil fuels, they also need to ensure their plans don’t trigger unintended consequences, such as more deforestation either at home or abroad,” said Janet Ranganathan, managing director of strategy, learning, and results at the World Resources Institute in a statement responding to the Belém pledge. She added that rapidly expanding global biofuel production would have “significant implications for the world’s land, especially without guardrails to prevent large-scale expansion of land dedicated to biofuels, which drives ecosystem loss.”

Other environmental issues found to be associated with converting food crops into biofuels include water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, air pollution, and soil erosion. One study, conducted a decade ago, showed that, when accounting for all the inputs needed to produce different varieties of ethanol or biodiesel — machinery, seeds, water, electricity, fertilizers, transportation, and more — producing fuel-grade ethanol or biodiesel requires significantly more energy input than it creates.

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• With the support of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, essentially all of Brazil’s government outside of the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change is promoting actions that push us toward tipping points, both for the Amazon Rainforest and the global climate.
• Crossing any of these tipping points would result in global warming escaping from human control, with devastating consequences for Brazil that include mass mortalities.
• The question of whether Brazil’s leaders understand the consequences of their actions is relevant to how they will be judged by history, but the climatic consequences follow automatically, regardless of how these actions may be judged, a new op-ed argues.

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To many people, Brazil conjures up images of the endless Amazon River, lush tropical rainforest and breathtaking wildlife. In a country of its size, this picture can remain true while also containing a more complex and changing set of realities. For example, climate change, high water demand and human activity are also leading to increased desert-like conditions. One recent study found that in the past 30 years, there has been a 30% expansion in dryland habitat across Brazil. One of the most affected areas includes the state of Pará, a major part of the Amazon rainforest and home to Belém, which is hosting this year’s UN climate summit.

Water shortages

Brazil’s northeast region is particularly noted for its semi-arid landscape and water scarcity.

Pernambuco, a small state by Brazilian standards, extends from the eastern Atlantic coast into the region’s interior for around 450 miles. Water availability is a constant concern for many communities across the state, especially family farms which are significant contributors to the regional economy.

“One of the main problems people are facing here is the growing frequency of droughts and the irregularity of rainfall. As a result, producing food has become extremely difficult,” said Carlos Magno, a coordinator at Centro Sabiá, a non-profit organisation in the area.

“We’re also experiencing stronger heatwaves, which have been causing the death of many trees and affecting the local environment even more,” Magno added.

He went on to describe how family farming in the region is almost entirely dependent on rain to grow food. There are no irrigation systems or wells to support communities so when the rains fail, it means less food on the table.Addressing these concerns is a key objective of an ongoing project supported by the Adaptation Fund’s Climate Innovation Accelerator (AFCIA), administered by the UN Development Programme and carried out by Centro Sabiá.

A woman collects rainwater harvested for use on smaller agroforestry plots. (Image: Centro Sabiá)

Transforming lives

Centro Sabiá has an intimate knowledge of how family farming operates in the region. It spent time consulting with communities to better understand their concerns, and hearing their ideas on how to combat water scarcity.

The project is implementing simple, yet affordable, climate solutions which are improving the livelihoods of local people. One intervention being explored is to recycle wastewater to help with the growth of new agroforestry plots. The water – taken from washing or cleaning – is filtered and then redirected for use on plots that combine crop farming with tree planting. The technique is designed to improve soil health, cut pollution and improve biodiversity.

“The water that used to pollute the soil now nourishes crops and trees,” added Magno. “When people realise that their available water is limited, but they can reuse it to grow food, it changes everything.”

On the project, 130 families, totalling over 31,000 people, introduced greywater reuse across 30 new agroforestry plots. The systems are low-cost and simple to implement within a farm’s existing infrastructure. They can be used for years with the initial access to technical support, and, as a result, are now treating millions of litres of water each year.

The impacts in Pernambuco have been immediate. Each family is estimated to be saving US$350 a year on water, and earning over US$300 a month from selling agroforestry products.

Making farming greener

Agroforestry has been identified as a sustainable alternative to industrial farming.

According to some scientists, the Amazon rainforest is able to recycle up to 5 litres of water per square metre a day. By contrast, land used for pasture is only able to recycle 1.5 litres. This helps to explain why some previously biodiverse areas that have been converted for cattle ranching and farming are now becoming drier.

Agroforestry seeks to redress the balance by including trees in the agricultural process, bringing more moisture – and carbon – back into the soil. The response to these techniques from people across Pernambuco has so far been overwhelmingly positive.

“Nature is doing really well for us,” reported Cilene, a local participant in the project. In a recent interview with the Adaptation Fund, she explained how in the past, “we bought things with pesticides. Now with this project we are learning to have better, healthier food.”

“Compared to how we were living before, we see better results and sustainable benefits,” she added.

Francisca Ferraz de Aquino Silva, a farmer in Calumbi, agrees. “This project was a real turning point in my life,” she said.

“After the technology arrived, I realised it was possible to make better use of water, without waste, and to produce food while improving the soil. It was a new opportunity in my life,” she told Centro Sabiá.

“Agroforestry reduces the need for heavy labour. You work without much effort, it brings economic return, and nature works in your favour…I saw that it was possible to live in semi-arid conditions with dignity and prosperity – planting biodiversity and working with agroforestry systems,” she added.

One of the greywater reuse systems installed during the project. (Image:Centro Sabiá)

What this means for COP30

As heads of state discuss the state of the planet in Belém, they only need look around at the surrounding rainforest to see how vital a role it plays.

Human development and extreme weather are putting significant pressure on nature and people’s livelihoods. If these drier conditions persist, the rainforest could be turned into savannah, which some scientists believe will create further dry weather and drought.

But the lessons from Belém’s southerly neighbour over in Pernambuco could provide an answer.

“Policymakers and delegates attending COP30 have a lot to learn from the project,” commented Magno. “It was built with civil society. It was carried out with the contribution of organisations and people who work every day with local communities.”

“By the end of the [climate] conference, the decisions and commitments must truly guarantee that adaptation resources reach the communities that are struggling every day to adapt to climate change,” he continued.

“It is crucial for funds from international climate agreements and adaptation policies to reach the local level, where they are needed the most.”

Consider your morning cup of coffee. Your kettle’s heating element — or flame on a stove — warms up water that you infuse with beans and pour into a mug. Maybe you get busy and the cup of joe sits there for a while, releasing its heat into the atmosphere of the room, until it reaches equilibrium with the indoor temperature. In other words: It got cold.

Now consider that the expansive Southern Ocean, which wraps around Antarctica, could one day do much the same thing. Since the Industrial Revolution kicked off, humans have dialed up the kettle to its max, adding extraordinary amounts of heat into the atmosphere, more than 90 percent of which has been absorbed by the sea. (It’s also taken up a quarter of our CO2 emissions.) Under climate change, the Southern Ocean has been storing warmth which, like your morning jolt, can’t stay there forever, and will someday return to the atmosphere.

New modeling suggests that this “burp” of heat — the scientists called it that, by the way — could be abrupt. In a scenario where humanity eventually reduces its greenhouse gas emissions and then goes “net negative,” finding ways to remove those planet-warming pollutants from the atmosphere, global temperatures fall. But suddenly the Southern Ocean belches its accumulated heat, leading to a rate of planetary warming similar to what humanity is causing right now. And the thermal burping would continue for at least a century.

Put another way: According to this modeling, at least, humans figure out a way to reverse climate change, only to see the Southern Ocean essentially restart it. While there would be nothing our descendants could do to stop this — since the warming would be driven by already stored heat — the calculations are yet another urgent call to reduce that pollution as quickly and dramatically as possible.

This sudden eructation is not a sure thing, however — it’s the prediction of a model. But it’s a step toward understanding how the planet could respond as humans continue to manipulate the climate, both warming and cooling it. “The question is: How will the climate system, and specifically the ocean, react to scenarios where we remove CO2 from the atmosphere, and when we have a net global cooling effect?” said Svenja Frey, an oceanography PhD student at Germany’s GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel and coauthor of the paper.

The Southern Ocean may encircle the frozen continent of Antarctica, but it’s very effective at storing heat: It alone holds around 80 percent of the warmth that’s taken up by all the oceans. Some of this comes from currents that transport relatively toasty waters south, but also lots of upwelling in the Southern Ocean brings cold water to the surface to be warmed up.

The skies above the Southern Ocean are also somewhat less reflective than elsewhere around the globe. Cargo ships and industries in the Northern Hemisphere spew air pollution in the form of aerosols, which themselves bounce solar energy back into the cosmos and help brighten clouds, which reflect still more. That cooling phenomenon has vied, in a sense, with the warming that’s come from the burning of fossil fuels. “That competition hasn’t been as prevalent over the Southern Hemisphere, because it’s this slightly more pristine atmosphere,” said Ric Williams, an ocean and climate scientist at the University of Liverpool, who studies the Southern Ocean but wasn’t involved in the paper.

In the scenario the researchers modeled, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 increases by 1 percent every year until the total amount is double what the planet had before the Industrial Revolution. Then negative emissions technologies reduce the carbon concentration by 0.1 percent annually. (The study didn’t look a specific techniques, but one option is direct air capture of CO2, though this remains expensive and limited in scale.) In response, the atmosphere, land, and oceans cool.

But something starts brewing in the Southern Ocean. Its surface becomes colder, but also saltier due to the formation of new sea ice: When sea water freezes, it rejects its salt, which is then absorbed into the surrounding waters and makes the surface layer heavier. “At the same time, we have these warm, deeper waters,” Frey said. “At some point, the water column becomes unstable, and that’s when we have the deep convection event.”

In other words, a burp. It’s just one way that our planet’s extraordinarily complex and intertwining systems might respond to rising and falling emissions in the centuries ahead. “There’s very large uncertainty in the Earth system response to net-negative emissions — we don’t understand that very well,” said Simon Fraser University climate scientist Kirsten Zickfeld, who studies these dynamics but wasn’t involved in the new paper. “We may well encounter surprises along the way, as this paper shows.”

To be clear, in this scenario, removing atmospheric carbon significantly reduces global temperatures, even factoring in the burp. And the faster we move away from fossil fuels, the less CO2 we’ll have to remove down the line. “Doing negative emissions and reducing our carbon load in the atmosphere is a good thing,” Williams said. “I would just add that, rather than do negative emissions, it’s better not to do the positive emissions in the first place.”

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Diplomats preparing for COP30 in the Brazilian city of Belém next month have been discussing an emerging issue that could feature for the first time at a UN climate summit: the global rush for energy transition minerals.

Metals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel and graphite are vital for manufacturing clean energy transition technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles – creating both new opportunities and risks for resource-rich countries.

Soaring demand for minerals – which are also used in the construction, digital and military sectors – provides an opportunity to spur economic development if mining is responsible and producing countries can turn their resources into high-value products.

But increased mining activity has fuelled environmental destruction, deforestation and conflict with communities, from Indonesia – which is opening new coal plants to power its nickel industry – to Zambia and Chile.

In preparatory talks over the past couple of months, developing countries with extensive mineral reserves, notably Latin American and African states, have warned that mining could become the Achilles heel of a just energy transition unless environmental and social safeguards are put in place to ensure the costs and benefits are shared fairly.

Diplomats have discussed the impacts of mining in negotiations on the social and economic implications of climate action, known as “response measures”.

They also raised the issue during talks to define the scope of a work stream to ensure that the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is fair to workers, protects nature and support economic development, called the Just Transition Work Programme.

Civil society push for COP to tackle transition minerals

Brazil’s COP30 presidency has made an agreement with “concrete outcomes” on a just transition framework a key priority of the summit in Belém.

Separately, the government has spoken about the need for energy transition mineral production to respect human rights and promote sustainable development.

“In its interventions across international forums, Brazil has expressed support for the inclusion of principles that promote transparency, address illicit activities and corruption, encourage value addition in developing countries, and uphold environmental protection and human rights in the context of critical minerals production,” a COP30 spokesperson told Climate Home News.

The inclusion of energy transition minerals in COP30 decisions will require consensus among all countries but observers are cautiously optimistic.

Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement

“The stars do seem to be aligning for COP30 to be the first to address the role of transition minerals governance in climate action but it’s still not a given,” said Antonio Hill, an advisor on the Natural Resource Governance Institute’s just transitions advocacy work.

“If achieved, it would address a glaring gap in the current global climate and energy transition agenda,” he added.

More than 200 civil society groups have signed an open letter urging countries to address energy transition minerals at COP30.

They called on them to welcome principles and recommendations of a UN panel on establishing transparent, sustainable and equitable mineral supply chains and to strengthen mineral governance.

A “timely and necessary” discussion

In a submission ahead of talks on the implications of climate measures last month, a coalition of 134 developing countries – known as the G77 and China – called for a “dedicated dialogue” on energy transition minerals.

It described it as “both timely and necessary” to enable countries to consider how growing mineral demand relates to their development priorities and climate plans.

The current dynamic “presents a serious risk of entrenching unsustainable development trajectories, undermining efforts toward industrial diversification, and jeopardising the prospects of a truly just transition for developing countries”, it said.

More than half of energy transition mineral reserves are estimated to be located on or near Indigenous land and a large majority of mines are located in biodiversity hotspots. Indigenous Peoples are widely acknowledged to play a key role in preserving tropical forests that act as some of the world’s most important carbon sinks.

Road to the SCM nickel mine in southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, which holds one of the world’s largest reserves of nickel. Photo: Franco Bravo Dengo

The issue was also raised during talks on defining a just energy transition framework.

The Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC), which includes Colombia, Chile and Peru, warned that deforestation and land use changes caused by mineral extraction could undermine climate action and affect people’s rights to a healthy environment.

“A just transition approach could offer unique opportunities towards fairness and equity in the mining industry” and contribute to local development, the group said.

Colombia, which is proposing that countries discuss options for a binding agreement on minerals at the UN Environment Assembly in December, went further and called for the designation of “no-go areas” for mining.

No-go mining zones

Colombia’s demands are echoed by Indigenous groups.

Bryan Bixcul is from the Maya-Tz’utujil Indigenous People in Guatemala and serves as the global coordinator of the Securing Indigenous Peoples’ Rights in the Green Economy (SIRGE) coalition. He told Climate Home the Just Transition Work Programme will fail to be a tool for justice if it fails to directly address the harms caused by mining.

Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use

Key to SIRGE’s demand is for the text to make explicit references to the rights of Indigenous Peoples, including those in voluntary isolation.

Bixcul said the text should include an obligation to establish “no-go” or exclusion zones on and around the land of the world’s remaining uncontacted Indigenous groups, which cannot give their consent to mining projects close to their lands. This, he said, violates the principle of no contact.

Protecting uncontacted Indigenous Peoples

Videos have emerged showing members of an uncontacted Indigenous group warning outsiders away and begging for food on a site where forest was being cleared for nickel mining on Halmahera island in Indonesia.

NGO Survival International warned that the uncontacted Hongana Manyawa people, who live on the island, faced “a threat of genocide” because of nickel mining used to make batteries for electric vehicles.

In September, Norway’s government pension fund divested from French miner Eramet, which operates a large mine on the island, citing “unacceptable risk” of human rights violations, including forced contact. Eramet denied the presence of uncontacted groups in or near its concession.

“If countries don’t take a stance to protect the rights of Indigenous Peoples in voluntary isolation, they will fail human rights, not just Indigenous Peoples’ rights,” said Bixcul.

Brazil, which has promised the largest Indigenous participation in COP history in Belém, has called on countries to protect the demarcation of Indigenous lands as a key policy tool to address the climate crisis.

Greenhouse gases from wildfires at sixth highest level on record after blazes in large areas of the Americas and Africa

Carbon emissions from extreme wildfires increased by 9% last year to reach the sixth highest level on record.

Intense fast-spreading fires devastated huge swathes of South America’s rainforests, dry forests and wetlands and decimated Canada’s northern forests, pushing up the levels of damaging greenhouse gases.

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A draft report commissioned by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy, or DOE, misleadingly claims that increasing levels of carbon dioxide could be beneficial for agriculture. In fact, mainstream climate experts have found that rising CO2 levels, by causing climate change, are harmful to agriculture overall – and likely to cause food prices to increase.

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• Changing rainfall patterns due to climate change are posing threats to guava farming in South Asia, the global hub of the tropical fruit.
• In recent years, rising temperatures and delayed monsoons have been affecting the flowering and fruiting of even the drought-tolerant guava varieties.
• Experts in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have identified links to climate change with vulnerabilities in guava farming and suggest solutions.

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• A new study conducted by a group of 53 scientists from Brazil and other nationalities revealed that preserved forest areas are increasingly harmed by climate change in the Amazon, largely due to the rapid increase in extreme temperatures.
• Between 1981 and 2023, extreme temperatures in the Amazon have risen at double the global average rate, increasing by 0.5° Celsius (0.9° Fahrenheit) per decade. The largely preserved north-central Amazon, home to conservation units and Indigenous territories, registered a rise of more than 3.3°C (5.9°F) in maximum extreme temperatures in the period.
• According to the study, the scenario provokes dry periods that lead to increasing forest fires and large-scale tree and fauna mortality, while bearing negative impacts on human access to services and health.
• Meanwhile, the fast temperature increase also demonstrates that high-emitting nations bear a strong responsibility for the changes in the Amazon, underscoring the urgent need for emission reductions and internal adaptation to save preserved areas of the tropical biome.

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Most people probably think that the rainforest of central and west Africa, the second largest in the world, has been around for millions of years. However recent research suggests that it is mostly just 2,000 or so years old. The forest reached roughly its modern state following five centuries of regeneration after it was massively fragmented when the dry season suddenly became longer some 2,500 years ago.

(Older article, but still interesting, and increasingly relevant.)

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“Extreme” wildfires emitted more than 8bn tonnes of carbon dioxide during the 2024-25 “global fire season”, according to a new report.

The annual “state of wildfires” report from an international team of scientists finds that fires burned at least 3.7m square kilometres of land – an area larger than India – between March 2024 and February 2025.

This is almost 10% below the average annual area burned over the past two decades.

But, due to an increase in wildfires in carbon-rich forests, the CO2 emissions resulting from these fires were almost 10% above average.

The report also zooms in on four of the most prominent extreme wildfire events during this time: southern California; north-east Amazonia; South America’s Pantanal-Chiquitano region; and the Congo Basin.

All of these events were found to have been more likely to occur as a result of human-caused climate change.

The researchers identify that, in some cases, the area burned by these fires was 25-35 times larger than it would have been without global warming.

The report also estimates that more than 100 million people around the world were exposed to wildfires in 2024 and 2025.

These fires are “reshaping lives, economies and ecosystems on a global scale”, one of the report authors, Dr Carmen Steinmann from ETH Zürich, said in a statement.

‘Increasing extent and severity’

Scientists from dozens of institutions analyse “extreme wildfires” globally between March 2024 and February 2025 in the second annual edition of the report.

The report explains that the “March-February definition of the global fire season latest global fire season is chosen so as to align with an annual lull in the global fire calendar in the boreal spring months”.

According to the report, the authors “harness‬‭ and‬‭ adopt‬‭ new‬‭ methodologies‬‭ brought‬‭ forward‬‭ by‬‭ the‬‭ scientific‬‭ community”. They add that in future reports, they hope to “enhance the tools presented in this report to predict extremes with increasing lead times, monitor emerging situations in near-real time and explain their causes rapidly”.

In the report’s “summary for policymakers”, study author Dr Matthew Jones, from the University of East Anglia, says:

“[The report] focuses on the global extreme wildfire events of the global fire season, explains why they happened and fingerprints the role of climate change as one of the key drivers of changing wildfire risk globally.”

The authors aim to “deliver actionable information” to policy experts and wider society about wildfires, the report says.

Using satellite data, the authors find that 3.7m square kilometres (km2) of land burned globally between March 2024 and February 2025. This means that the 2024-25 fire season ranks 16th out of all fire seasons since 2002, indicating below-average burned area compared to the rest of the 21st century.

However, the global fire emissions database shows that the 2024-25 wildfire season drove more than 8bn tonnes of CO2 emissions, according to the report. This is 10% above the average of wildfire seasons since 2002.

Jones explains that this is indicative of a trend towards “increasing extent and severity of fire in global forests, which are carbon-rich”, as opposed to less carbon-rich grassland biomes.

The chart below shows global burned area (top) and carbon emissions (bottom) during the 2024-25 wildfire season, compared to the average over 2002-24, for different world regions. Red bars indicate that the 2024-25 wildfire season had higher-than-average burned area or emissions for the given region, while blue indicates lower-than-average numbers.

Burned area, in thousands of km2 (top) and carbon emissions in teragrams (equivalent to millions of tonnes) of carbon (bottom) during the 2024-25 wildfire season, compared to the 2002-24 average, for different world regions and biomes. The triangles (right y-axis) indicate the percentage of the relative anomaly compared to the average. Source: Kelley et al. (2025)

Savannas, grasslands and shrublands account for more than 80% of the burned area in a typical year, with forests and croplands making up the rest.

According to the report, burned area in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannah and shrublands‬‭ was 10% below the 2002-24 average over 2024-25, but still contributed 70% towards the total global burned area.

The 2024-25 wildfire season was the second consecutive year that African‬‭ savannahs‬‭ “experienced‬‭ a‬‭ low‬‭ fire‬‭ season”, the report notes, with below average burned area and carbon emissions.

Meanwhile, the report finds that the greatest increases in burned area and carbon emissions during the 2024-25 wildfire season were seen in the ‭Canada’s boreal‬‭ forests‬‭, the‬‭ moist‬‭ tropical‬‭ forests‬‭ in‬‭ the Amazon region, the‬‭ Chiquitano‬‭ dry‬‭ forests‬‭ of‬‭ Bolivia and the Cerrado – a tropical savannah in central Brazil.

The graphic below shows some key figures from the 2024-25 wildfire season.

Key figures from the 2024-25 wildfire season. Source: State of wildfires project, summary for policymakers (2025).

Study author Dr Douglas Kelley, from the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, told a press briefing that the author team spent time “actively engaging with a big regional panel of experts”.

The team identified four “focal events” – extreme wildfire events that were chosen both for the severity of the fire and the impacts on people and the environment.

For each focal point, the study authors assessed the drivers of the wildfire. They also used attribution – a field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on an extreme event – to determine the contribution of human-caused climate change.

Finally, the authors estimated the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future as the climate continues to warm over the coming century.

Kelley told the press briefing that “capturing fires themselves can be quite tricky”, because they are affected by a range of different factors.

The report notes that wildfires are affected by changes in weather, with hot and dry weather providing the best conditions for wildfires. It adds that changes in land use are also important, as they can affect ignition.

Kelley explained that the report authors used “multiple types of attribution” to capture these different factors, using a range of fire models, weather forecasting models and land use data.

North America

In North America, 2024-25 was an “extreme” fire year, the report says.

Both burned area and carbon emissions reached their second-highest levels since records began in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Across the continent, the burned area was 35% higher than the average since 2002 and the carbon emissions were more than double the average emissions since 2003.

In Canada, 46,000km2 of land burned during the 2024-25 fire season, releasing 282m tonnes of carbon (Mt). The burned area was 85% higher than average, but the associated emissions were more than 200% higher than average, according to the report.

The report also notes that the wildfire season started early in Canada in 2024, due to earlier-than-normal snowmelt, as well as persistent, multiyear drought and “holdover fires” that reignited in the spring after smouldering through the winter months.

In the US, more than 64,000 individual wildfires contributed to a total burned area larger than 36,000km2. More than 8,000 wildfires in Mexico led to a record 16,500km2 of burned area.

The regions experiencing record or near-record burned area and carbon emissions were varied: from the Canadian tundra and the north-western US mountain ranges to California’s grasslands and Mexico’s tropical forests. In the far-northern boreal forest – which contains around 20% of the world’s forest carbon – the season trailed only the record-breaking 2023-24 fire season in burned area and associated emissions.

The researchers select the January 2025 southern California wildfires as one of the four “focal events” of the report.

The maps below show the locations of the four focal events: southern California, the Congo Basin, north-east Amazonia and the Pantanal-Chiquitano. The colours show the percentage difference from the average burned area, with blue indicating less burned area than average and darker browns showing more burned area.

The burned area anomaly, expressed as a percentage difference from the 2002-24 average, for each of four focal events (clockwise from top left): southern California, Congo Basin, Pantanal-Chiquitano and north-east Amazonia. The inset on each chart shows the location of the event. Blue colours indicate negative anomalies (less burned area than usual) and browns indicate positive anomalies. Source: Kelley et al. (2025)

In early January 2025, more than a dozen fires broke out in and around Los Angeles. Although January is “well outside the typical fire period”, the fires “became the most expensive wildfires ever recorded in just a few short days”, Prof Crystal Kolden – a study author and the director of the University of California, Merced’s Fire Resilience Center – wrote in the report.

The two largest fires, named the Palisades fire and the Eaton fire, resulted in at least 30 deaths, more than 11,500 homes destroyed and more than 153,000 people being evacuated from their homes.

The fires resulted in estimated economic losses of $140bn, placing “substantial pressure on the already volatile home insurance market in California”, according to the report. It notes that the fires also contributed to the “housing and affordability crisis” in southern California.

The report says that the severity of the January fires was largely due to intensifying extremes in the water cycle – an unusually wet period that allowed vegetation to flourish, followed by an unusually arid winter that dried out that vegetation, turning it into fuel. It notes:

“Between 5 and 25 January, favourable weather, fuel availability and ignition sources aligned, leading to create ideal conditions for ignition and rapid fire spread.

“The substantial suppression efforts deployed is unaccounted for in our modelling framework and could be one of the possible reasons the fires did not escalate even further.”

Previous attribution analysis found that the January 2025 fires were “likely influenced” by human-driven climate change. The report authors also find that the burned area in the southern California event was 25 times greater due to climate change.

However, whether extreme fire activity in southern California continues to intensify depends largely on how the region’s plants and trees respond to increased atmospheric CO2, the report says. It also notes that climate models disagree as to whether wintertime rainfall will increase or decrease in future climates.

South America

The report finds that South America had a total area burned by wildfires of 120,000km2 during the 2024-25 fire season – 35% higher than average.

That translated into the release of 263Mt of carbon – the “highest carbon emissions on record for the continent” and 84% above average, the report says.

Jones, a study author, said in a press briefing that South America “hasn’t seen carbon emissions like this on record before”.

The report underlines that South America’s fire season was “unprecedented” in many ways, such as fire extent, emission levels, intensity and their impacts on society and the environment, although not in the number of fires.

For example, fires in the north-east Amazon impacted air quality, crops, houses and native vegetation, affecting people living in the region, including Indigenous peoples such as the Yanomami, the report says.

Laercio Fernandes, a volunteer firefighter and Indigenous man, holds a shell of a turtle found dead after a forest fire hit the Kadiwéu Indigenous land, in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, in 2024. Credit: Diego Cardoso / Alamy Stock Photo

The country with the largest area burned by wildfires during the 2024-25 fire season was Brazil, with a total burned area of 243,000km2, followed by Bolivia, with a total of 107,000km2 of burned area, and Venezuela, with a total of 43,000km2 of burned area.

The most-affected biomes in the region were the Amazon rainforest, with 47,000km2 of wildfires above the average since 2002.

Second was the Chiquitano and Chaco dry forests – encompassing parts of Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. These biomes experienced a “record-breaking” fire season with more than 46,000km2 of burned area. These fires resulted in 100Mt of carbon emissions – six times higher than the average since 2003.

More than 46,000km2 of the Pantanal – the largest tropical wetland located in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay – burned in 2024-25, with associated carbon emissions of 67Mt above the average.

According to the report, fire activity in the region was primarily driven by “anomalous dry weather”.

In the north-eastern Amazon, the severity of the fire season between January and April 2024 was compounded by natural sources of climate variability, such as El Niño and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, which contributed to very high temperatures and absence of rainfall. There, deep soil moisture dropped to 1%.

Meanwhile, in Pantanal and Chiquitano, “extreme dry weather” since 2023 and “multiple years of below-average rainfall” contributed to the severe fires, the report says. Study author Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe said in a briefing that the “wet season that usually happens between February and May failed completely to recharge the soil that kept completely dry and this drove most of the fire season” in the region.

The authors conduct an attribution analysis and find that the fire weather conditions in the north-eastern Amazon that season were “significantly more likely” due to climate change. In the Pantanal and Chiquitano, the conditions were 4.2-5.5 times more likely due to climate change.

Africa

Overall, the scale of fires across Africa was “well-below average” in 2024 and 2025, the report finds, except in certain areas, including the Congo Basin, northern Angola and South Africa.

In 2024, a record-high amount of land was burned in the Congo Basin – a biodiverse region in central Africa spanning six countries that holds the world’s second-largest tropical forest. This burned area was 28% higher than the annual average and there were 4,000 fires in total, 20% more than usual, in 2024.

Fires also caused “hazardous” air pollution and contributed to the Congo Basin’s highest loss of primary forest in a decade.

The analysis in the report finds that it is “virtually certain” that human-caused climate change contributed to the extreme fire weather in this region in July and August 2024.

The hot, dry and windy conditions were 3-8 times more likely to occur as a result of climate change and the area scorched by fires was three times greater than it would have been otherwise, the findings show.

Climate change has also driven an increase of more than 50% in the average annual burned area in the Congo Basin, which the researchers say is “one of the most robust signals of climate influence” in the fire trends they analysed.

Drought was a major factor behind the fires, the report finds, and water stress is expected to be the main driver shaping future fires in the Congo Basin.

Congo rainforest along Rembo Ngowe river in Akaka, Loango National Park, Gabon. Credit: Lee Dalton / Alamy Stock Photo.

These fires are “part of a long-term trend of increasing fire encroachment into African moist forests, driven by climate change and human pressure”, says Prof Michael Wimberly, a professor at the University of Oklahoma who was not involved in the report, but has researched wildfires in Africa. He tells Carbon Brief:

“The increased fire activity in the Congo Basin is troubling because of the vast expanses of unfragmented forests and peatlands that store massive amounts of carbon, provide habitat for threatened species and supply vital resources to local populations.”

The report notes that there is “sparse reporting and poor media coverage” on the impacts of fires in the Congo Basin in 2024, despite millions of people being impacted.

In South Africa, 34 people were killed and thousands of livestock and homes were destroyed in fires last year. In Ivory Coast, 23 people were killed and 50km2 of land was burned.

Dr Glynis Humphrey, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Cape Town, who was not involved in the study, adds that a below-average burned area across Africa “does not necessarily indicate a decline in fire risk or impact”. She tells Carbon Brief:

“In some ecosystems, fewer but more intense fires are being observed, which can still have severe ecological and atmospheric consequences.”

Using climate models, the researchers project that fires to the extent of those in the Congo Basin last year could occur up to 50% more often by 2100, under a medium-emissions pathway.

The region is also projected to see more increases in extreme wildfire risk by the end of this century. Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and the central part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo could see some of the largest increases in burned area, which, the report estimates, could double or quadruple in some cases.

Humphrey notes that fire patterns are “shifting” in response to climate change, which is “leading to significant consequences for ecosystems that don’t typically burn – like the forests in the Congo Basin”. She tells Carbon Brief:

“This is of concern, as primary forests harbour critical biodiversity that supports ecosystem functioning and provide services to people…These forests are also sanctuaries for endangered species.”

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Could the boreal forest be less fragile than we think? Contrary to the predictions of models that forecast its rapid decline in favour of temperate maple forests, the ecological history of the boreal forest is showing surprising resilience.

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In 2024, the Amazon Rainforest underwent its most devastating forest fire season in more than two decades. According to a new study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, the fire-driven forest degradation released an estimated 791 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2024, a sevenfold increase compared with the previous two years.

The carbon emissions from fires in 2024 surpassed those from deforestation for the first time on record. Brazil was the largest contributor, accounting for 61% of these emissions, followed by Bolivia with 32%, the study found.

“The escalating fire occurrence, driven by climate change and unsustainable land use, threatens to push the Amazon towards a catastrophic tipping point,” the authors write. “Urgent, coordinated efforts are crucial to mitigate these drivers and to prevent irreversible ecosystem damage.”

The researchers estimated that the total emissions from deforestation and fire-driven degradation in the Amazon in 2024 was 1,416 million metric tons of CO2. This is higher than Japan’s CO2 emissions in 2022, which ranked fifth after China, the U.S., India and Russia.

The 2023-24 Amazon drought was one of the most severe in recent history, fueled by the El Niño phenomenon, which causes lower rainfall in the region. Water levels in the Amazon’s main rivers, including the Solimões, Negro and Madeira, dropped to their lowest in more than 120 years.

Human-driven climate change has in fact made the Amazon Rainforest nearly 30 times more prone to fire, the 2023-24 State of Wildfires report found.

However, most blazes in 2024 would have likely been started by humans engaging in arson. Ane Alencar, director of science at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute, previously told Mongabay contributor Lucas Berti that in 2024, the dry, flammable forest became an opportunity for those wanting to deforest illegally.

According to the new study, fires affected 3.3 million hectares (8.2 million acres) of Amazon forest last year alone. The estimate is less than that of a Brazil-based government figure, which put the number at 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) in 2024 just for Brazil.

Facilitated by the large swaths of burned forest, deforestation in 2025 has also been rising after a historic drop of 31% from 2023 to 2024. Monthly deforestation data in Brazil showed an increase of 92% of deforestation in May compared with the same month in 2024. A midyear review suggested that deforestation alerts increased by 27% from January to June over the previous year.

“With a worsening of climate change and the greater fragility of forest cover, including primary cover, we are beginning to see a shift,” João Paulo Capobianco, executive secretary for Brazil’s Environment Ministry, said in June 2025.

“The tropical forest, which is naturally immune to large fires due to its humidity, is suffering a huge impact from climate change, reducing its resistance to fires and becoming more vulnerable,” he added.

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Two years ago, Ecuador surprised the world with a historic referendum: more than 58% of the population voted to keep nearly one billion barrels of crude oil underground in Yasuní National Park – one of the most biodiverse places on Earth and home to Indigenous Peoples living in voluntary isolation (Tagaeri and Taromenane). The referendum was a triumph of democracy and a global example of how a society can choose to protect life over oil.

Yet, little has changed since then: by August 2024, only one of the 247 wells in Block 43 had been closed. The referendum mandated that oil operations cease within a year, but the government has announced it will take five.

Today, new threats are emerging, and the Ecuadorian people’s decision remains unfulfilled. President Daniel Noboa is pushing forward the largest oil auction in decades: 2.3 million hectares divided into 14 blocks that overlap with the territories of seven Indigenous nations (Sapara, Shiwiar, Waorani, Kichwa, Achuar, Shuar, and Andoa) in the Amazon rainforest. This extractivist shift is not only an ecological contradiction – given that humanity has already crossed seven of the nine planetary boundaries and the Amazon is nearing a tipping point – but also deepens Ecuador’s political and social crisis, which extends from the streets to financial markets in the Global North. It is part of an ambitious plan to boost investment in the hydrocarbon sector, which includes 49 new projects worth $47 billion.

To make this plan viable, the Noboa administration is promoting regressive economic measures and legislation that restricts social protest while weakening both judicial independence and environmental governance. Territorial leaders who oppose oil expansion face an increasingly repressive state apparatus. There is even talk of constitutional changes that would prioritize greater guarantees for investors at the expense of collective rights, such as free, prior, and informed consent, and the rights of nature itself.

Oil expansion in Ecuador is not an isolated phenomenon and cannot be understood without examining international markets. In a recent report, co-authored by Amazon Watch, we exposed how more than 190 oil, gas, and coal companies are expanding their operations across Latin America and the Caribbean, backed by banks and investors from the United States and Europe. Although science has made it clear that opening new oil fields is incompatible with global climate goals, since the adoption of the Paris Agreement more than 930,000 km² have been opened for oil and gas exploration in the region – an area larger than Venezuela.

The dilemma runs deeper: can there be true democracy in societies whose economies remain tied to oil extraction in Indigenous and ecologically rich territories? The Yasuní referendum proved that another path is possible. The challenge now is ensuring that this sovereign decision is not buried under oil decrees, regressive reforms, and investor deals.

What is at stake is not only Ecuador’s Amazon. A just energy transition must begin from the principle of shared but differentiated responsibility. The upcoming COP30 in Brazil will be a decisive test: will governments commit to declaring the Amazon a fossil-free region, or allow it to become a sacrifice zone? We hope they choose intergenerational and interspecies well-being over short-term profit.

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