NFL

Anyone else think Gardner has actually become somewhat underrated? Maybe it’s people not caring about Indy, but he’s having a decent season for a back up.

With how bad QB play is around the league (Fields, Wilson, Pickett, DeVito, Bryce, Mac, etc.) I’d wager a lot of teams would love someone who’s competent, tough, accurate, somewhat mobile and a leader like Minshew. He doesn’t have a big arm, he doesn’t have high end athletic traits, he’s short, etc., but the guy can play some football and help a good team stay above water.

His rookie season was great in my eyes. The stats were honestly really good. Say what you want, but that Jags team also wasn’t very good. Watching a guy like Bryce Young play, who I’ll admit is probably in an even worse situation than Minshew was in with the Jags, really puts things into perspective of how rare it is to have a QB who’s competent and not horrendous.

Is he a star? Absolutely not. Is he a franchise guy? Nah. Is he an extremely high end back up / bridge QB? Honestly yes.

Curious as to what everyone’s thoughts are. I know he’s been a topic of discussion in the past but it seems like he isn’t talked about anymore even though he’s winning some games for a decent Indy team and not looking bad in the process. Not advocating for him to be “the guy”, that’s Richardson based on tools and potential, but I think guys like Minshew are insanely valuable.

Google wasn't much help and I was curious. There's a loud contingent calling for Arthur Smith's job. If the Falcons win the south but lose handedly in the first round of the playoffs, could he still be fired in the off season?

ptdotme's NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 12

(By popular demand, see the rankings without the influence of last year's season-ending ratings in my comment below, or here.)

This is OC. I’ve written code to calculate NFL team Elo ratings^1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without the influence of human bias and emotion. The ratings are based on each team's rating from the previous week, with a "parity reset" applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 2012^2 season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they're fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.

This is all a work in progress and feedback is appreciated! See more stats and info on my 2023 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.

Note: You may feel teams are ranked too high or low based on recent games, and you may be right. However, the model has been tested and is more accurate when it doesn't overreact to individual games. The goal is model accuracy, not rankings that "look right." ^(2)  

^(1)See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...

^(2)Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2010 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2021, have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 2010 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.  

The mediocrity, or parity, however you want to brand it, is astounding this year. Who I’m the hell would have ever thought that 12 weeks into the season, all of the Bengals, Chargers, Bills, and Jets…would all not only be on the outside of the playoffs looking in, but two of them would be staring down the barrel at top 10 draft picks.

I know that at present you couldn’t remove all human officiating but I personally support some upgrades.

For example, sensors in the ball and on the field that give perfect ball placement every time. Particularly at the goal line.

Breakdown of the Super Bowl winning starting quarterbacks and the number they wore. What do you think will be the next number to get their first super bowl (1,2, and 6), and what number do you think will never win it at all or again?

Personally, with Tua and Hurts playing so good right now, its hard to not say 1 will be the next to get their first.

I think civilization will end before we see another QB with 19 win.

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# in parentheses indicates how many they won as the STARTER

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Every year we see various fanbases complain about the ownership of their favorite NFL team and wishing they would do better/sell, ect. Many dislike their ownership for perceived incompententcies in running the organization (Mark Davis, David Tepper), others dislike their owner based on personal dislike (Dan Snyder before he sold). So my question for you: what makes a good NFL owner? Should they be highly involved in team decision making ala Jerry Jones? Be way hands off like Kroenke? Does their participation in the community matter as much as winning championships? Or do you just want success?

Edit: I guess I should say, this is an excellent opportunity for Packers shareholders to pat themselves on the back

So I don’t post much at all so I apologize if this is not on topic. Whether you like the Packers or not, think Jordan Love is a bust or a future hall of famer, he deserved a turkey leg or a piece of turducken. Might I suggest a way to right this injustice: give a donation to your local food bank. They always struggle to have enough and more people are struggling with food insecurity. It would be pretty cool if this diverse community of fan bases can get together to help out a worthy cause in their community.

• Jalen: 162/246 for 1716 yards 10 TDs 10 INTs
• Purdy: 168/233 for 2170 yards 17 TDs 2 INTs

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HurtJa00/splits/2023/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PurdBr00/splits/2023/

After catching his 90th Career touchdown against the Colts on Sunday, and Davante Adams having a touchdownless game against the Chiefs, Evans enters week 13 just 1 Touchdown behind Adams for their careers. With the Raiders being on a bye week, this means Evans will need to catch 1 touchdown to equal Adams or 2 to pass Adams for sole lead. Evans opponent this week is the Worst team in the NFL, the Carolina Panthers who on their last meeting got destroyed by Evans as he had 10 catches for 200 yards and 3 TDs. If he is able to replicate this performance than he will become the active leader in Touchdown Receptions.

As an aside, if Mike Evans accumulates at least 150 more receiving yards for the season then he will tie Randy Moss for the second most 1000 yard receiving seasons in a career (10), a mere 4 behind Jerry Rice.

Tuesday, November 21 - Monday, November 27

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Watched the Browns/Broncos game this weekend and the entire game the announcers were talking the whole game about how the Cleveland defense is the best we have seen in decades, comparable to the legendary 2008 Steelers, blah blah blah...

Naw, not even remotely close. Forget the gargantuan gap between the 2023 Browns and the 2008 Steelers. Lets just take a look at the Browns vs. the other two defensive teams in their division.

Ravens are 1st in Sacks, 1st in opponent QB rating, 1st in redzone percentage, 7th in takeaways

Steelers are 4th in the league in takeaways, 6th in opponent QB rating, 4th in redzone percentage

These kind of things matter more than yards allowed. Ravens and Steelers allow more yards sure, over 100 more yards per game for the Steelers, but at the end of the day...

Ravens are 2nd in points allowed, Steelers are 5th in points allowed, Browns are 7th in points allowed. There are so many different ways to achieve defensive victory. Browns aren't even the best defense in their division, let alone a generationally good defense.

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2/3 of the way through the 2023 season.

Who is your coach of the year? And why?.

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| | 1 | Philadelphia (0) | | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 1 | | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | | 2 | San Francisco (0) | | 2 | 2 | 3 | | 2 | | 2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 4 | | 3 | Kansas City (0) | | 3 | 3 | 2 | | 3 | | 4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 6 | | 4 | Baltimore (1) | | 4 | 4 | 4 | | 4 | | 3 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 2 | | 5 | Dallas (1) | | 7 | 7 | 5 | | 5 | | 5 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 3 | | 6 | Miami (2) | | 5 | 6 | 6 | | 6 | | 6 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 7 | | 7 | Detroit (-3) | | 8 | 5 | 8 | | 7 | | 7 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 8 | | 8 | Jacksonville (1) | | 6 | 8 | 7 | | 8 | | 8 | 7.4 | 0.9 | 5 | | 9 | Buffalo (2) | | 13 | 10 | 9 | | 11 | | 10 | 10.6 | 1.5 | 13 | | 10 | Pittsburgh (4) | | 9 | 13 | 12 | | 10 | | 9 | 10.6 | 1.8 | 11 | | 11 | Houston (-1) | | 12 | 12 | 10 | | 9 | | 12 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 12 | | 12 | Denver (3) | | 10 | 9 | 11 | | 13 | | 13 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 10 | | 13 | Cleveland (-5) | | 11 | 11 | 14 | | 14 | | 11 | 12.2 | 1.6 | 9 | | 14 | Seattle (-2) | | 14 | 14 | 13 | | 17 | | 14 | 14.4 | 1.5 | 18 | | 15 | Indianapolis (3) | | 15 | 16 | 15 | | 15 | | 18 | 15.8 | 1.3 | 14 | | 16 | Minnesota (-2) | | 16 | 20 | 16 | | 18 | | 15 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 15 | | 17 | LA Rams (5) | | 18 | 21 | 19 | | 12 | | 16 | 17.2 | 3.4 | 17 | | 18 | Green Bay (6) | | 25 | 15 | 18 | | 16 | | 17 | 18.2 | 4.0 | 16 | | 19 | Atlanta (4) | | 19 | 17 | 17 | | 20 | | 20 | 18.6 | 1.5 | 22 | | 20 | Cincinnati (-4) | | 17 | 19 | 21 | | 26 | | 19 | 20.4 | 3.4 | 20 | | 21 | New Orleans (-4) | | 20 | 18 | 20 | | 24 | | 21 | 20.6 | 2.2 | 21 | | 22 | LA Chargers (-3) | | 22 | 23 | 22 | | 21 | | 24 | 22.4 | 1.1 | 19 | | 23 | Las Vegas (-3) | | 21 | 22 | 26 | | 22 | | 22 | 22.6 | 1.9 | 23 | | 24 | Tampa Bay (-3) | | 23 | 25 | 24 | | 23 | | 23 | 23.6 | 0.9 | 25 | | 25 | Tennessee (2) | | 24 | 27 | 25 | | 19 | | 26 | 24.2 | 3.1 | 24 | | 26 | NY Jets (-1) | | 26 | 24 | 23 | | 27 | | 28 | 25.6 | 2.1 | 27 | | 27 | Chicago (1) | | 27 | 26 | 29 | | 25 | | 27 | 26.8 | 1.5 | 26 | | 28 | Washington (-2) | | 29 | 28 | 27 | | 30 | | 25 | 27.8 | 1.9 | 29 | | 29 | NY Giants (1) | | 28 | 29 | 28 | | 28 | | 29 | 28.4 | 0.5 | 28 | | 30 | Arizona (-1) | | 30 | 30 | 30 | | 29 | | 30 | 29.8 | 0.4 | 31 | | 31 | New England (0) | | 31 | 31 | 31 | | 31 | | 31 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 30 | | 32 | Carolina (0) | | 32 | 32 | 32 | | 32 | | 32 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 32 |

[SN] ( https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/nfl-power-rankings-chiefs-cowboys-browns-broncos-packers/3eda3afe4d6307fc2adc9bbe )

Y!

B/R

CBS

USA

NFL

ESPN

[SI] ( )

[CGPR] ( https://old.reddit.com/user/velociraptorfarmer/comments/185prn9/2023_week_12_nfl_power_rankings/ )

Latest from the Commodore64. Usual caveats with the numbers and I don't factor in tie-games as a possibility into the calculations. Apologies to the vocal group that doesn't like some of my 3-letter abbreviations.

• PHI, SFF, DET, DAL, MIN could all lose out and still make the playoffs. Other than PHI, the others shouldn't bank on that as a credible strategy.
• ATL, CAR, TBB, CHI, GBP, NYG, and LAR could mathematically sneak in with 6 wins. NOS, WAS, ARI, and SEA need at least 7 to have any kind of chance.
• If TBB wins out to reach 10 wins they're in, which is the lowest "assured" number of any team. C64 says ATL, NOS, and MIN need 11 wins to avoid any chance of being left out. DET, DAL, PHI, SFF, and SEA look like they need 12.
• CAR, CHI, GBP, NYG, WAS, LAR, and ARI do not control their own destiny.
• The "reasonable" win number that has decent chances of making the playoffs is 9, although 8 is waiting in the shadows to takeover the most likely status.
• Computer projections for wins likely to be good enough to take the divisions (i.e. roughly 2nd place + 1W or winning tiebreaker) are: NFC East 13 wins, North 10 wins, South 8-9 wins, West 10-11 wins.
• Looks like the Eagles clinch a spot this week with a win and a Rams loss. I penciled it out since that seemed weird that a Rams loss would matter as PHI beat them earlier and it looks like without the Rams losing, the possibilitiy would remain of a multi-team tie for all the wildcard spots occuring with the Rams winning the multi-team tiebreaker before h2h with the Eagles became relevant. At least that's the answer I'm going with because my head now hurts after trying to pencil it out.
• Panthers and Cardinals eliminated from contention with losses.
• My subjective analysis says get to 10 wins to be safe with 8 wins having at least moderate hope. Using that criteria, I have PHI (duh), SFF, DET, and DAL being "realistically in" as they could play Chargers football and still get there, and I have CAR, ARI, CHI, WAS, NYG as being "realistically out" as even 8 wins is either impossible for some or a tall order for the rest.
• For the teams in the middle of the fight, as in not on my realistically in or out lists above, there are four intra-conference games this week (SEA v DAL, DET v NOS, CAR v TBB, SFF v PHI), and the following outcomes would be the most beneficial to the non-combatant contenders as shown: Everyone better off with a DAL win over SEA; Everyone better off with a CAR win over TBB; LAR & SEA better off with a NOS win over DET, everyone else better off with a DET win; Computer says ATL better off with a SFF win over PHI and everyone else better off with a PHI win. I wasn't going to argue with the C64 on why that is for ATL.