this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2023
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chapotraphouse
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I agree with you that Trump isn't the favorite, but polling has Biden and Trump tied right now even after the various rounds of legal trouble. The fundamentals aren't good for Biden, and could get a lot worse if high interest rates percipate an expanded banking crisis or if the situation in Ukraine degrades further. Trump's floor is higher than 40%, and he's only one or two crisises away from having a real shot.
Abortion rights is turning out to be a strong voting platform and Biden beat Trump before Roe v Wade was overturned.