this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2025
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Ukraine
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Putin will surrender within a year? An ex-spy said the same thing in 2023 and it didn't happen. If the war ended this year, it would be great for Europe. I imagine the reduction in fake news from Russia would drop significantly.
I am not imposing any timeline, Ukraine's artillery, artillery hunting equipment and UAVs are.
Also Ukraine's willingness to accept loss of life. They could have attacked many times already, but it would be by trading soldier lives for ground. They are trying their best to conserve their soldier's lives. (it is an unknowable question if an attack sooner would have overall traded less lives, but I generally trust their generals to know more than me about making war and so I'm not touching that debate)
One can only hope.
When putin surrenders he dies. I don't think he will willingly give up. Somebody else will throw him out a window.
Maybe, I think what is salient for Ukraine is to build up the capacity to credibly threaten a decisive armored counterattack that severely encricles large sections of the Russian army and liberates chunks of territory.
It is the credible threat of that eventuality that will make peace more preferable.