this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2025
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Ukraine

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This does not bode well for Putin or Russia's invasion, Russia can only strategically succeed in this summer offensive if it puts so much distributed pressure on the frontlines that Ukraine does not have the spare command capacity to leverage its superior, actually still mechanized, troops to counter attack and create local efficiencies for Ukraine that compound to a shift in momentum in the war in favor of Ukraine.

In otherwords Russia's infantry have placed itself in an extremely vulnerable position where they must CONSTANTLY keep the pressure up or else Ukraine will use that window to flank the infantry with mechanized forces and categorically remove them from the war via encirclement.

The fact that this started happening in july and not late summer indicates to me how badly Russia is making a massive strategic blunder with this ill-equipped offensive, because when the momentum decisively shifts Russia won't be able to respond and move their troops to concentrate defensively because they don't have any transportation left. A thinly spread army with no transportation is toast up against a nimble, mechanized and coordinated counter attacking force.

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[–] atro_city@fedia.io 6 points 6 days ago (2 children)

Putin will surrender within a year? An ex-spy said the same thing in 2023 and it didn't happen. If the war ended this year, it would be great for Europe. I imagine the reduction in fake news from Russia would drop significantly.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 11 points 6 days ago (2 children)

I am not imposing any timeline, Ukraine's artillery, artillery hunting equipment and UAVs are.

[–] bluGill@fedia.io 2 points 5 days ago

Also Ukraine's willingness to accept loss of life. They could have attacked many times already, but it would be by trading soldier lives for ground. They are trying their best to conserve their soldier's lives. (it is an unknowable question if an attack sooner would have overall traded less lives, but I generally trust their generals to know more than me about making war and so I'm not touching that debate)

[–] atro_city@fedia.io 3 points 6 days ago

One can only hope.

[–] sepi@piefed.social 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

When putin surrenders he dies. I don't think he will willingly give up. Somebody else will throw him out a window.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 3 points 6 days ago

Maybe, I think what is salient for Ukraine is to build up the capacity to credibly threaten a decisive armored counterattack that severely encricles large sections of the Russian army and liberates chunks of territory.

It is the credible threat of that eventuality that will make peace more preferable.