This does not bode well for Putin or Russia's invasion, Russia can only strategically succeed in this summer offensive if it puts so much distributed pressure on the frontlines that Ukraine does not have the spare command capacity to leverage its superior, actually still mechanized, troops to counter attack and create local efficiencies for Ukraine that compound to a shift in momentum in the war in favor of Ukraine.

In otherwords Russia's infantry have placed itself in an extremely vulnerable position where they must CONSTANTLY keep the pressure up or else Ukraine will use that window to flank the infantry with mechanized forces and categorically remove them from the war via encirclement.

The fact that this started happening in july and not late summer indicates to me how badly Russia is making a massive strategic blunder with this ill-equipped offensive, because when the momentum decisively shifts Russia won't be able to respond and move their troops to concentrate defensively because they don't have any transportation left. A thinly spread army with no transportation is toast up against a nimble, mechanized and coordinated counter attacking force.

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[–] rockerface@lemmy.cafe 24 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Sadly, even if Russia keeps losing on the actual battlefields, they aren't stopping constant attacks on civilians. Seems the only strategy they have left is to terrorise the entire country until we lose the will to fight or foreign aid gets cut off.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 14 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

You are correct in the elements of your statement, but you have the order of operations mixed up here.

The reason Russia has ramped up attacks on Civilians is it realized it had hopelessly lost the PR war to keep foriegn aid from consolidating around Ukraine at least among the rich, advanced nations of the world (except a power like China that might simply be motivated to keep trying to balance the scales no matter what).

The ramping up on attacks on civilians solidifies international/foreign aid for Ukraine and it solidifies Ukraine as the sympathetic actor here for the vast majority of the rest of the world, especially the rest of the world with sophisticated weapons and professional militaries... thus the only reason Russia would do it is if they began to lose so badly on the actual battlefield in their offensive that they needed a PR distraction so they could keep claiming they were decisively winning the war OR Russia/Putin concluded that the rest of the world had already consolidated around Ukraine. Either is not good for Russia/Putin.

Also, I do not want to speak for people enduring war as a person not enduring a war (at least not a literal one), but this kind of mass civilian attack will NOT destroy Ukraine's will to fight among the civilian population. It will simply transform the entire population into resistance fighters, which ultimately will not be good for Ukraine, that road has much suffering along it and cities are meant for diversity not for armies of people all focused on killing, but make no mistake Ukraine will not lose the will to fight from shahed like attacks....

...that is not how people work, especially not Ukrainians as this war has made very clear.

[–] rockerface@lemmy.cafe 14 points 3 days ago (1 children)

You make good points. It's not easy to see the bright side of missiles and drones hurled at my city every night, but this does give me hope. Thank you.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Have you heard of the Aero Shark? I made a post about it here, I see great hope in platforms like that to protect Ukrainian cities and population from shahed style attacks and do so at a sustainably cost effective scale that can be quickly ramped up in production both domestically and with foreign partners.

https://en.defence-ua.com/video/ukraine_receives_first_shark_light_aircraft_with_anti_drone_ew_capability-32.html

I imagine with Ukraine's state of the art drone production that there is the industrial expertise necessary for production of carbon fiber ultralight aircraft frames similar to the Aero Shark, it would be a natural next step in some ways for a lot of cutting edge carbon fiber production techniques for small to medium combat airframes I imagine and would compliment simultaneous carbon fiber drone production as well.

It is worth noting that the cost effectiveness of a platform like the Aero Shark produced with Ukraine's UAV and small aircraft expertise that was tested and refined in a defense of Ukraine would immediately become a prime candidate for all kinds of non-military uses all over the world, especially in the context of rescue, disaster response and life saving operations in general. It is the kind of commitment to war that doesn't put an entire industry heading towards a dead end when peace happens.

[–] gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Also, the sky sentinel system - derived, built, and deployed in Ukraine by Ukrainians, it’s a networked, ML-driven M2B .50 cal on a fully gimballed autonomous mount that ties in to IADS for low-altitude cruise missile and drone defense. They’re apparently quite cheap (comparatively speaking) to set up, and very good at nailing shaheds.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 7 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago)

Definitely, it is those very systems that are forcing Russia to raise the quality of its shaheds so they can fly higher to avoid heavy machine gun fire, but that very response in tactics makes shaheds incredibly vulnerable to ultralight electronics warfare, surveillance and jamming aircraft like the Aero Shark.

Thus these two weapon systems although they appear very different in nature and purpose are actually a natural compliment for Ukraine in a one two defensive punch against mass shahed drone attacks.

[–] atro_city@fedia.io 6 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Putin will surrender within a year? An ex-spy said the same thing in 2023 and it didn't happen. If the war ended this year, it would be great for Europe. I imagine the reduction in fake news from Russia would drop significantly.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 11 points 3 days ago (2 children)

I am not imposing any timeline, Ukraine's artillery, artillery hunting equipment and UAVs are.

[–] bluGill@fedia.io 2 points 2 days ago

Also Ukraine's willingness to accept loss of life. They could have attacked many times already, but it would be by trading soldier lives for ground. They are trying their best to conserve their soldier's lives. (it is an unknowable question if an attack sooner would have overall traded less lives, but I generally trust their generals to know more than me about making war and so I'm not touching that debate)

[–] atro_city@fedia.io 3 points 3 days ago

One can only hope.

[–] sepi@piefed.social 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

When putin surrenders he dies. I don't think he will willingly give up. Somebody else will throw him out a window.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 3 points 3 days ago

Maybe, I think what is salient for Ukraine is to build up the capacity to credibly threaten a decisive armored counterattack that severely encricles large sections of the Russian army and liberates chunks of territory.

It is the credible threat of that eventuality that will make peace more preferable.