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Anti-foreigner sentiments are on the rise as Japan faces a population crisis (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 2 days ago by throws_lemy@lemmy.nz to c/world@lemmy.world

283 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Outside a train station near Tokyo, hundreds of people cheer as Sohei Kamiya, head of the surging nationalist party Sanseito, criticizes Japan’s rapidly growing foreign population.

As opponents, separated by uniformed police and bodyguards, accuse him of racism, Kamiya shouts back, saying he is only talking common sense.

Sanseito, while still a minor party, made big gains in July’s parliamentary election, and Kamiya's “Japanese First” platform of anti-globalism, anti-immigration and anti-liberalism is gaining broader traction ahead of a ruling party vote Saturday that will choose the likely next prime minister.

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[–] gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

It might be possible to have a society that could survive less-than-replacement birth rates, but I don’t see how.

I want to add that historically, in the US from 1680 to 1880, the population has grown by approximately 3% annually. Source

(In the table, since the growth rate given is per 10-year interval, you have to divide it by 10, roughly, to get 3% annual growth)

This suggests that it should be possible (at least in theory) that the population can shrink at the same speed, i.e. 3% annually. This would mean an average fertility rate around 0.66 children/woman. Currently, in most western nations, it's around 1.4, while 2.1 would be "replacement levels", i.e where the population numbers stagnate.

The reason why i think you can have a 3% annual population decline is because it's kinda symmetric: instead of a surplus in children (which eat and consume resources but don't contribute through their labor power), you have a surplus of old people (which, mostly, also consume resources but don't work). So, the situation is kinda symmetric, and that's why i suggest that it should be possible.

[–] bss03 2 points 1 day ago

because it’s kinda symmetric

That's not what I've been told, but I'm not an expert.

I imagine part of that is due to an interaction with economics, particularly inflation. A 3% inflation is considered healthy, but a 3% deflation is almost certainly a monetary system in a death spiral.