this post was submitted on 30 Oct 2025
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Coalition options are complicated.
D66 + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA is ideally what they want, very broad and centrist, but VVD said they won't partner with anyone left, and especially not PvdA. Since VVD had better than expected results, they're keeping their leader, so I expect that promise to stick.
Another route is D66 + all of the left wing parties combined, but getting them all to agree on an agenda led by a centre-left party seems fraught. Also, some of these small left parties have never been in government before and probably don't have the chops for compromise.
A possibility is D66 + CDA + VVD + JA21, centrists partnering with the right to keep out the left. A tale as old as time! JA21 makes me nervous, basically a more polite version of FvD.
The most likely outcome is a centrist minority government of D66 + CDA + GL/PvdA, and then relying on the left parties or right parties separately to pass the legislation they want based on the topic.
Of course, trying to address the far right with centrism is how basically every county eventually falls to fascism. This election outcome isn't great.
I'm a little scared of D66 leadership, too, because they want the Netherlands to have more direct democracy and first past the post - basically emulating the American system; we see where that leads. And they want to solve the housing problem with massive deregulation and hand-outs to developers, basically leading to rampant suburban sprawl and car dependence.