Actual Discussion

I think I better understand what you're saying now that I've read your comments, specifically in this thread. While I agree with some of your sentiments to an extent, I think you may be oversimplifying a few things and overestimating the importance of others. I don't think I'm necessarily directly disagreeing with you, though.

I very seriously doubt an armed conflict at a significant scale in Venezuela is on the table right now. While definitely an outrageous international crisis, an invasion is completely unnecessary for the goals of the trump admin. While the US did bring in an aircraft carrier group to carry out the kidnapping, the amount of time, ordinance, and logistical expenditure would be equivalent to one of the many regular drills run by the US military annually. The cost in terms of American military capacity being tied down is effectively zero. The geopolitical cost, however, is more than likely going to be world changing. We have yet to even see the initial response, let alone the consequences, but what we're hearing at the moment isn't exactly looking great for the trump admin or the future of US soft power.

The US military isn't really stretched all that thin right now, especially since pulling out of Afghanistan recently with a very small drawdown of forces after. America isn't in a position of crumbling or even losing an inch of worldwide hegemony due to military adequacy. However, the geopolitical climate in addition to the impossibly stupid moves of the trump admin recently have certainly earned the US a great amount of distrust globally that would take a gargantuan effort to repair over many years by a different administration(s). It really does appear that the trump admin is running around poking anyone/everyone trying to start a fight.

Talk of an impending American Civil War are pretty silly. Tensions and polarization are high, sure, but the interdependence, geographic blurring, and lack of political will are too great to overcome for a full blown Civil War. While I won't rule it out in our lifetime, it's just not in the realm of possibility right now. Despite the political polarization, Americans remain strangely unified. Worst case scenario I could see in the near future is the equivalent of The Troubles in Ireland. Red and blue states are much more purple than the narrative would have us believe, and those in the ranks of the US military are gonna be pretty reluctant to turn their weapons on other Americans, again, despite the narrative. Domestically, the US is more in economic trouble with the ai bubble, volatility of the housing market, and the brittle state of employment, rather than military trouble with political instability. The coming economic downturn will for sure hurt, but it won't destroy America. I could see the current admin being incompetent enough to fumble the economic downturn into another worldwide depression, but again, not enough to destroy America on its own.

So, to your point of American military power being eroded an uncomfortable amount, oh yeah, hard agree. In fact, the pentagon is working tirelessly to warn of further erosion and drafting up plans to rebuild infrastructure. But American military hegemony isn't currently under threat. None of the current conflicts around the world have warranted direct military intervention under the goals of the current administration, despite said admin champing at the bit to do so. If China were to invade Taiwan tomorrow, they would get their shit kicked in almost immediately. If Russia were to invade a NATO country tomorrow, they would get their shit kicked in even harder. In a regular conventional war, America will absolutely fuck up anyone's shit right now.

I think you may overestimate china's economic influence worldwide as well. While I will acknowledge that the two main economic powers in the world are the US and China right now and no one else even comes close, China still doesn't quite have the same reach as America. If the Chinese economy failed overnight, the world would feel it and not have a great time, but it would survive. If America's economy failed overnight, the current state of civilization is over. The world would shuffle shit around for awhile, turning into something we wouldn't recognize. China is certainly catching up, but China is extremely dependent on American buying power much like the rest of the world. The world economy is built on consumerism, and America is by far #1 in buying an unreasonably enormous amount of shit. China is certainly gaining their bearings in ruthless and barbaric economic warfare, but they still pale in comparison to the professionals in America.

So while I definitely disagree that America is on the brink because of a degraded military, I will agree that American political hegemony is in danger because the trump admin is unbelievably stupid and the major opposition party is largely disorganized and unable to expend any political capital to give meaningful resistance. I think you're right to be concerned for the future stability of the world given the increased political turmoil and brick-shitting incompetence of global leadership.