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This is actually one of the best times in human history.
Not anymore. Conflict around the world has statistically shot way up. There's also a significant increase in political polarisation around the world.
I question that. In colonial times and in tribal times, there were huge amounts of conflicts. And conflicts is only a tiny part of how the world is running. Slavery, human rights, minority treatment, just laws, poverty, standard of living, etc. On average world wide, we are far better off. The majority of the people in the first world have luxuries that only kings and nobles used to have.
Between the end of World War 2 and 2016 the world has seen a steady and significant decline in global conflict.
Immediately after 2016 that statistic has been shooting upward rather steeply.
Those conflicts didn't have drone strikes though
You're right on both counts.
Like most things though it depends what metric you're using.
Access to medical care for example is better than its ever been.
Only in specific parts of the world. Other parts have always been behind, or straight up non-existent, and in one country access to medical care is actually getting worse when it really has no reason to.
I don't really understand. Some places may have less medical care than others but it's still better than it's ever been in those places.
If you're comparing to a decade ago, yes. However, even with the increased number of wars, it is still more peaceful than before 1945.
Not more peaceful than 1945. The way things are going to total death toll of war will become comparable to WWII.
But between WWII and 2016 we have seen a decline of conflict. Now we're seeing an incredibly steep increase.
Exactly how?
Pick a metric of badness like rates of war death, childhood mortality, communicable disease, or extreme poverty.
They're all low now compared to most points we can estimate in human history. Look at an interval of a decade instead of a year to smooth out spikes from relatively small events.
Over half a million people have died in the Gaza and Ukraine wars, and that's terrible. It seems like now is pretty bad as far as war goes. World War 1 killed about 20 million. World War 2 killed about 80 million. The perspective is staggering.
A couple centuries ago, half of all children died before adulthood. Now it's 4.4%. One in 20 children not surviving their childhood is certainly tragic, but far less so than one in two.
All people will die, so does it really matter if its sooner than later? When the prospects of actually living are under the global control of the few? Their chances of having food, a stable climate, and freedom are getting reduced every year? When they will likely face servitude to those with wealth, a surveillance state, mass incarcerations, and if lucky simply become a wage slave?
Twenty years ago I might have agreed with you based on statistics. Now I don't think so.
Since you mentioned infant mortality, for the first time in twenty years the rate is getting worse. Worth noting that in the US Mortality rates are especially high in states where laws were passed to restrict abortions after overturning Roe V Wade. In Mississippi there was actually an emergency declared when the rate nearly hit 10%. It skews the statistics, but the point is that people are making horrible decisions.
This is not the US alone, although they are leading the way in misinformation, anti science, and populism for power. Its a global phenomenon, and does not bode well for people at all. Diseases are coming back, war is back, and the consequences of global energy and food dependence are extreme compared to the past.
Globally, it is estimated that about 7 million people will die prematurely every year from air quality alone. That means in just 3 years, more people will die from breathing than in WWI. And we are not doing anything about it, in fact globally it is just getting worse.
We have breached the boundaries of climate change, freshwater use, ocean acidification, and biological diversity. There has never been a worse time on the planet than right now.
Edit: this doesnt even begin to cover the issues of chemical persistence or plastics in nearly everything including our bodies. Nevermind PFA's and other forever chemicals.
Part of the issue isn't necessarily any one of these things, but seen as a whole, there is little to no will to fix it. Profit matters, and those with the most profit are setting the rules.
I think most people would rather die at the age of 90 from heart failure than at the age of 9 from smallpox.
Those are valid concerns, but the trends were moving in the right direction until recently. I'm concerned about backsliding too, but it's not clear whether we're seeing a long-term reversal or just some turbulence.
This is a picture of the Cuyahoga River on fire in 1969. Here's a look at the air in Los Angeles in the 1970s.
We've come a long way on environmental protection in the past half century. We still have a long way to go, and as with other issues, there has been some backsliding. I'm pretty optimistic about the long-term trend.
Believe me, I like your optimism.
If you are talking about the US, it is actively dismantling those protections now. I mean look at the fact that they are still growing corn(!) to make ethanol to put in gasoline. What a waste.
I agree LA looks better now than in the 70's, but even with all the effort it still is US's smoggiest city for 25th time in 26 years.
But look at all the other places were the pollution is dust and heavy metals like the Salt Lake in Utah. All the water diversion, and climate change, is going to come to a reckoning. Look at the water system that feeds LA (Owens Lake), it is the largest human-caused dust storm sources in the United States. They are trying to fix it, but what can be done?
This is happening all over the world. I think we are well beyond being able to mitigate this.
Warmest artic temperatures ever, with more than double the global rate of temperature change. Melting of permafrost and ice at an all time record high rate. Lowest sea level ice, June snow cover extent is half what it was 60 years ago. 200 Alaskan watersheds are now orange with iron and other elements that are polluting them that were not there a decade ago. Whole communities are being relocated and we are just starting to see the effects. Something like 250 million people will be displaced from rising water by 2050. 45 million people were displaced in 2024 from heat, with a projection of 2.8 billion likely to become heat refuges. The worst part of both of those things is that also means crops are going to be displaced too.
I believe all of this will cause the wealthiest to see opportunity to extract and plunder instead of understanding the implications and trying to mitigate it. I believe people will be convinced that they need to take it before someone else does. People seem extremely stupid or selfish. It makes me wonder if we aren't seeing long term covid brain at this point.
We could go on and on with environmental problems, and we are stating to see impacts like I mentioned before:
Youth and Young Adult mortality rates are increasing. Heat related mortality for people over 65 is up 85% since 2017. That's half a million people a year from it being too hot to live where they grew up.
I think we are way past the point of no return.
before internet, local problems remained local though. now everything is kind of in the same pot. I guess there are objectively less problems now than before, but before individual people had to deal with only local problems and maybe some from further away if things got really bad there.