this post was submitted on 26 Mar 2026
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IIRC, most of the people that actually work at ITER don't expect to live to see commercial fusion.
We've achieved controlled ignition several times, but there's a lot of steps still between that and delivering fusion power to your local grid, and I don't think I would trust anyone to give a concrete timeline.
I really thought Polywell Fusion would be the trick, but Australians (and probably the US DoD) have good evidence it doesn't "scale" in a way that will give a energy-positive/fuel-negative cycle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell#University_of_Sydney_experiments