this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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NonCredibleDefense
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Has anyone notiticed how headlines about Russia is either
"Russia is about to fall apart"
or
"Russia is about to invade all of Western Europe"
Why Russia Isn't Actually Collapsing
This video is kind of sobering. It appears to be objective, but as with anything on the internet, don’t take it as the gospel, seemed fairly informative without going into either extreme.
TL;DR While Russia has faced heavy losses during the war, both on the battlefield and through sanctions, they’re still a petro-state with vast reserves of natural resources. Unless something unexpected happens, they’re likely to be able to carry out this war for quite awhile and are banking on the somewhat fickle Western world getting bored and moving on from supporting Ukraine. About the only hint of trouble is their worker shortages, but that may or may not be a huge enough issue to change things. It’s kind of a depressing video to watch and the videomaker himself has had videos in the past claiming that Russia was on the verge of collapse before, though I guess learning new information and changing your opinions isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness.
Wartime economies can be sustainable, doesn't mean Russia cannot be defeated in the battlefield. West just needs to maintain and increase support to Ukraine.
Probably the best comparisons can be made to the Afghan War. However, Russia today is much weaker than the Soviet Union of the 1980s and the Ukrainian army is a more formidable adversary than the Mujaheddin. The potential for the war to be protracted, however, is great, as Putin likely sees defeat here as an existential threat to his power.
Lol. Piggy very nearly collapsed the Russian state with only a few hundred men but he chickened out. Probably because he doesn't know what to do after he wins. Russia will collapse if anything happens to Putin. It will be the Warrring States Era for Russia soon after.
Haven't seen any of the latter type, honestly. Not headlines, at least - certainly some Very Intelligent Internet Commenters(tm) raising those fears.
Occasionally I see "Russia is threatening to invade all of Western Europe." But they threatened a lot of stuff over the years.
They also might try, which would be a problem for border countries, even if it’s unsuccessful
Poland just bought nearly 500 HIMARS. I cannot fathom the hate they would unleash on Russia the second the first tank rolled over the border.
But like, I don’t want one polish person to die, which probably would not happen if there was an invasion. Right now, Georgia and Kazakhstan would be pretty well equipped comparatively, but winning doesn’t mean not getting hurt.
There'd be an awful lot of wrecked tanks and burnt-out trucks to clean up at the border, I can see how that would be a problem.