Full disclosure: I'm still pulling for Fields and I don't watch college football.
With that in mind, if we do move on from Fields, I wanted to get my head around how the basic stats of Williams & Maye compare to recent #1s overall.
Main Takeaway: Statistically speaking, vs prior #1 picks, Williams is middle of the pack and Maye is bottom in almost every main category.
Follow-up Questions for those of you who know and watch college football:
- Can someone explain why Caleb Williams is talked about as being "generational" or a can't pass up?
- Can someone explain why there is so much love on Drake Maye? Honestly, his figures are extremely similar (maybe worse) than Trubisky. Given they went to the same school, that is quite concerning.
https://preview.redd.it/kodkxhi94b3c1.png?width=1493&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5f9e3ed30a1b59ecf0317e8668fe07ec478ce2f
No of that really matters. If you draft a QB first round it’s basically a 33% chance he is good, 33% chance it goes meh, and 33% chance he sucks or is always injured.
You can move the percentages up and down but they almost always fall into there is a greater chance things don’t work out.
Since 2018, there have been 21 QBs drafted first round. Out of those you’d want Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Stroud. Maybe you’d want Lawerence, Fields, Murray.
So out of the last five years and 21 QBs taken in the first you’d want 5 of the 21. Maybe another 4 of 21 you could make an argument for.
If you try and say just focus on QBs taken 1.01. That’s Young, Lawerence, Burrow, Murray, and Mayfield. That’s five guys. Burrow is the best but has missed almost two full seasons. So even at 1.01 you’re betting on a 20% chance you get a franchise changer.
I would want...
Allen
Burrow
Lamar
Tua
Stroud
Herbert
Murray
So yeah 33% you're on it.
Thank you these are the stats that matter. I would say the chances on Bears are even lower considering weak roster and bad coaching