memes

Wasn't there an article that looked at and showed that no, there are no stock market specialists. An "experienced" stock trader was just as accurate in their predictions as regular Joe that's just guessing. In that sense LLM should be just as effective (if not more) at making profit.

In all fairness, it would be some kind of custom Neural Network designed to try and predict market movements (having been trained with past market data as well as things like counts of specific words in news articles and social media posts within a certain time frame) rather than an LLM.

Neural Networks are pretty good at spotting patterns in masses of data which people can't easilly spot.

Of course, there must be a pattern there which doesn't change much over time of certain things happening with more probability after certain other combinations of things, for it to actually beat the market, plus it also massivelly depends on the inputs it's formatted to take (which a human is deciding rather than the NN itself, though maybe the technique used in LLMs of having huge dimensionality in terms of inputs and internal layers might work well there so that it can take "everything but the kitchen sink" as inputs).

And then, there is of course the "small" risk that it might work fine for months/years under normal market conditions at doing what is essentially "picking nickles in front of a steamroller" - i.e. making low value gains in a nice reliable away for as long as normal market conditions are happening, but when conditions change getting totally splattered - whilst because of the whole black-box nature of NNs the humans don't recognize the convoluted technique it has converge to use through training, as that kind of risky strategy.

That said, unlike an LLM at least a custom NN wouldn't come up with a "you're so right" excuse when the human tells it of the massive losses it incurred.

Real horror.

Is there a story here?

I don't remember the institution, but I remember reading a paper on a simulated trading environment with several ai agents who didn't know about eachother. The LLMs were pretty conservative with profits and deliberately bought and sold in predictable ways. They all ended up "colluding" with eachother by deliberately not competing.

I just use AI for projected profits and losses, and determine earnings schedule and report. I also trade in international markets and I have used AI as well. And like a lucky gold miner prospecting, AI helped me with finding good leads in the international market.

But of course, in spite all that, you have to have due diligence. You still have to verify if what the AI is saying is correct.

Here's a crazy thought, the massive firms who have been trading programmatically using ML since it's very earliest adoption, are simply going to program their shit to eat chatGPTs lunch. I have no doubt whatsoever that these desks are thrilled by the number of people predictably using public LLMs to choose trades, such a fresh new dataset of the newest, smoothest brains for them to exploit.