Prediction markets? It's called online gambling.
this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2026
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It's not gambling for insiders.
Why the fuck would they pay out on such obvious Insider information?
Because they profit off the insider bets, and not paying out would make their users distrust them. Or are you expecting a gambling platform to put morals above profit?
It kinda makes me wonder if they'd actually nullify the assassin loophole.
Bet big that target won't do a thing they're definitely going to do. Assassinate them before they do it, collect the gamble bounty.
(Allegedly one of the services has nullified one of these before, even though it was coincidental)
Because these sites are grifts used to scam people with gambling addiction and launder money for criminals.
It's called loser behavior. We've gone full Idiocracy but somehow unfunny. People are gambling on legitimately horrible things. Can't wait until the prediction market gets to gamble on Gaza city home to get blown up. You can play the over/under on the number of children orphaned in every strike.
Comments here missing the obvious: Thousands of military personnel were involved in this action. Closer you get to seeing boots on the move, more obvious the mission.
Never served, but I'd guess military scuttlebutt is tighter than gossip in a megacorp, yet, thousands involved.
Say you're working the carrier flight line, you know what's launching, who's boarding what aircraft and the sorts of work those boys do.
"Huh. Boss talking shit, close in on Caracas, fighters launched with bombs, more with air defense measures, all headed south. Ain't that a thing? And here come two teams of badasses outfitted for night work packing handcuffs*, riding them blacked-out Black Hawks, even left room for passengers! Wonder what's going on tonight? Cover me? Gotta hit the head. <furious typing to move funds and login to Polymarket>"
Obviously pulling that out my ass, but you get the idea.
* My kinda gig!
Protos reporting on the bet indicates that this unknown person had been building a position since December. The list of people who knew so far in advance must be smaller.
There is a market/betting website for this stuff... what the actual fuck? Just another day another step further in dystopia
CNN just partnered with it if I'm not mistaken
You are half mistaken. CNN partnered with Kalshi not Polymarket, but they are similar companies.
You can bet on basically everything somewhere. The betting market is the way to go if you want real odds of what's happening tomorrow. They have a financial incentive to be accurate (half-joking).
Apparently more than one and they're for betting on a variety of topics
Polymarket is a website that lets user bet on anything
It's insane how easy it is for people in positions of power to game this shit. Unbelievable
Gambling should just be illegal again 🙄
Great idea, we'll get a new mafia that runs illegal gambling from street to championship level.
You either have an illegal but very popular activity run by "the black market", or a legal but very popular activity run by the government and capitalists. The market doesn't go away
Either way, with a market this massive, the profits are insane. This would be much bigger than the drug trade, gambling is the very easiest and most popular of such "sinful" activities.
True.
Although the main reason for legal gambling is that it allows for regulation. And I cannot see any of that being done at the moment.
I dunno. If I think about how many of my friends were sports betting 15 years ago vs today it's at least 10x today. I feel like that was caused by market availability not a change in demand. They would've always bet if it was this easy to do and if it becomes hard again they'll stop.
Your friends need to control themselves, gambling is as old as humanity itself. Smart phones have made just about EVERYTHING easier. They can outspend their budget and go broke, gamble and go broke, get a fresh date every day and go broke, and so on.
When you make it "against the law", that means people will serve time for gambling, where they will be sent to prison, and guess what they do in prison to pass the time? Gambling. Even if there is no prison for the "crime", they'll still be fined and guess what? Go broke.
That's the system. Removing gambling from the equation, addiction will still be a problem for them, because they're addicts.
You know you can make gambling against the law by going after the brokers and not the betters, right? Gambling destroys lives and pretending that legalization is the only thing stopping black market gambling is brain dead.
It's telling that you blame control for why more people are betting because anyone that studies addiction would tell you you're a fucking moron, and I think you should remind yourself of that fact on an hourly basis, because you have only one idea for banning gambling. Consider that banning gambling by going after brokers is going after those that profit from the whole thing, and you'll realize that, woah, it will have a positive effect.
You know you can make gambling against the law by going after the brokers and not the betters, right? Gambling destroys lives and pretending that legalization is the only thing stopping black market gambling is brain dead.
Thinking you can stop black market gambling is brain dead. Get mad, it's cute, you greasy sausage
Please point out where I said it would stop black market gambling. Please do. I have unlimited time, and you have unlimited disappointment to give me.
I said that black market gambling is STILL A THING, so your point that making it legal is somehow stopping it is wrong, and obviously so because that's how words work, pal. So, anyway, please feel free to revive my brain with your refutation because I so carelessly didn't say the thing you said I said.
Calm down, buddy! Point out where I said "making it legal is somehow stopping it"? You have unlimited time, so I'll wait.
You see, if you just make up points in your head and pretend other people said them, you get everything all confuzzled, and that's why you're so grumpy.
You either have an illegal but very popular activity run by "the black market", or a legal but very popular activity run by the government and capitalists.
Right there.
Still didn't answer mine yet, though. I apologize for being inconvenient and remembering things you don't.
Yeah, that doesn't say what you said i said! You're still upset, take a little break, maybe have a juice box okay buddy?1? Good job buddy! Give me five! Alright!
You are really upset that I called you pal and that you misread things. I am sorry for you.
Awww, it's okay. Outside? You want to go outside? Good job!!
You are really upset that I called you pal and that you misread things. I am sorry for you.
good job buddy
I thought the purpose of the markets is to financially motivate leaks of information early...
This is why Trump didn't notify Congress ahead of time, he didn't want them insider betting with that information
Well yeah, he didn’t want them fucking up his 30k bet
He said he called and spoke with petroleum companies. I know his mind is mush, but he basically said he consulted with private oil corporations about this attack but didn't tell Congress.
The fact that every representative isn't drawing up impeachment articles right now speaks volumes about the corruption that is allowing this to happen.
It's over for humanity, I swear
That's a bold bet if Maduro escaped capture. But the fact that this bet got media attention after Maduro was captured means this is more like a brag.
Is it though? 30k is nothing to these people
We don't know who made the bet. But it is not uncommon for ordinary people to make that huge of a bet. I heard of someone who lost his house after using it as collateral for stock trading.
Edit: a word
That's kind of my point
I just realised my incorrect wording. I meant it is not uncommon for ordinary folks to bet their entire life savings and even home.