Just checked on Oryx and before today the total was 22 independently confirmed downed so that is a bump of 1/7 of the two year total in one day. Fuckin' amazing.
this post was submitted on 22 Dec 2023
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Fucking love it.
I wonder if it is the work of the new Patriot they were set to receive from Germany.
I've seen a fair bit of speculation that it was patriot alright. If that is the case it means the Ukrainians took a gamble and rolled those launchers very close to the font lines. The glide bombs that the SU-34 uses have a range of about 50KM as I understand it.
Russian telegram at least partly confirming now too. Incredible job.
The key part here are the three pilots. Russia has more planes then trained pilots, so destroying flying aircraft is a much better thing, then hitting them on the ground. Still 120million or so is going to hurt.
I have been told the Patriot biases the cockpit as well. Much more effective damage.
I sure hope we'll see more of this once they get a few F16's and Gripen's. Destroy em all!
Considering how many Russian strikes on Ukraine seem to be using air launched missiles this seems like a huge win.
Yay! Each of these is irreplaceable for Russia, so huge win.
Why are they irreplaceable for Russia?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-34
Since 2006 they've built 150 units. That's 8 units a year. Some were sold, some got lost.
As of 20 May 2023, there have been 20 visually confirmed cases of Su-34s being lost, damaged or abandoned by Russian forces since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. 23 now, apparently.
At their price, with sanctions, with wear of the remaining ones, at this rate, they might not have any left very soon.
At this rate it takes some 9 years though, but I guess there's a certain threshold after which it is more dangerous to fly for them.
It would be 9 years, if only one linear factor was at play.
I believe it's multiple factors, though.
One is that every plane taken out had its share of "work", which is now distributed across the remaining ones. Which means they get worn out a little faster. Similar to how they have to cannibalise parts from one civilian aircraft to repair another.
Then I'm going they cannot maintain the usual production speed because if the sanctions. Add to that an increased need to repair since the plains are more heavily used. And I'd guess that repairs are fine at the same facility that produces them, this also reducing production speed.
In other words, I think it's about snowballing and at this rate it could be way less than nine years.