Politik-brained Canadian here:
IIRC they didn't raid Epstein till 2019. In 2020 Democrats had a narrow majority in the house which they would lose in 2022.
Than January 6, 2021 happened, and I think everyone thought that would be the legal case that brought Trump down.
It kind of seemed inevitable that the Epstein files would get leaked or released eventually. That is until Trump officially ran again in 2023; creating the possibility that the evidence would be destroyed permanently if he won.
I wager the actual chances are in the double digits.