TwinkleToes

Yeah, probably, and those two concepts are clearly related. The obvious quid pro quo would have been a quick decisive takeover of Ukraine would have led to a short, bloody invasion of Taiwan and the fickle pussies in the west would just have to shrug their shoulders and accept the realpolitik. China and Russia would financially support each other through the inevitable heavy sanctions of both invasions - but that plan depends on both engagements being short and decisive. Russia's phase 1 Blyatzkrieg has been neither, and that probably throws a wrench in Xi's plans for Taiwan. But - de factor senior leadership in the Russia-China alliance and effective control of Russia's resources without giving up ANYTHING is a pretty damn fine silver medal.

Whether they have run 'out' is moot. They've squandered their BEST, at any rate, and aren't bothering to use what remains, and that's kind of the point. Saying that it's 'half gone' is the same as saying it's ALL gone in the context of trying to conquer ukraine. You have to keep a fleet available for credible border defense, future offensive operations (which are now probably off the books) and internal oppression of your own population. And as you say - both in terms of armor and artillery - even if you have remaining stockpiles, you can't sustain this burn rate, and each piece you move forward is less effective that the one it replaced, both in terms of age, utility and the caliber of who's left operating it.

Capabilties degrade when you piss away your army in a sunk cost fallacy revenge project.

No doubt. Wihout expending a single soldier's life or piece of equipment, they got promoted to undisputed master of the axis of authoritarian nightmare shitholes, can demand ANYTHING from russia going forward and won't be refused. They solved all their water, resource and mineral needs for a century or more, have gained strategic access to the North Pacific, which China has n-e-v-e-r ever had in history. Russia has become the junior vassal resource yard for China's next century of growth. Now they have to solve their demographic problems, or it won't matter much.

Putin will end up being the worst russian in history, which is REALLY an accomplishment. The man who gave the country away to China, pissed away the entire inheritance of the USSR, destroyed their primary export markets for a vanity revenge project.

Could be. The recent, obvious strategy of flying drones and jets blatantly into NATO airspace has some purpose behind it. It seems foolhardy to invite NATO to attack Russia, but in that case, you'd probably see a much more explicit level of support from China, including direct military support/aid or even Chinese military intervention. On balance, I think the probing nature of those recent incidents is just to test the political response of NATO, see if they're really willing to take action over transgressions in Poland, Romania & the Baltics.

People tend to have endless capability to rationalize what they did was correct.

Schroder is a little more DGAF about his blatant on-the-take corruption. Merkel tries to at least appear as a politican with German interests in her heart.

Of course - it's a package deal. This war is about incompatible ways of living. Russia's governing principle is "Do As I Say, Or I'll Hurt You". This permeates every aspect of Russian life - The Strong prey on The Weak. As it should be, that is the natural, old order of the universe. Theft is expected appropriate to your station in life, corruption and abuse of power is precisely the point of having it. There's a saying in Russian life that "The man who doesn't steal, steals from his family". If YOU don't steal, someone else will, so to not steal is naive and idiotic.

And it's been this way FOREVER. Abusive cruelty is a feature, not a bug. Empathy and law are indulgent playthings for feckless Western pussies who can't endure suffering like STRONK RUSSIANS. All that actually matters is power to steal and kill. Since even long before the days of the Mongol Horde. Russian society is a 1,000 year experiment on institutional cruelty smashing the faintest notion of individual rights or a law based society. You get what you take, not the other way around. And if you have the "strength" to hold it, it's yours.

The population of Russia are descendants of passive serfs who DIDN'T stand up to the local warlord for centuries. If your forebears were the kind of people to stand up and say "hey, this isn't right - stop stealing from us", well then they end up with their head on a pole at the edge of town and you never get born. The russians who live today are the meek, submissive, goblin offspring of people who kept a low, obedient profile for centuries. Do as "They" say, or you die. Attacking your neighbors and beating your kids are in the same lifestyle brochure. Cruelty is fine - expected, even - at home and abroad.

Maybe naive, but I kind of find it reassuring that they have to waste time doing these sort of meaningless tantrums precisely because the day to day of the war isn't going very well for them. Yes, Ukraine is suffering, but - that's Russia's doing, and if they could be doing any more or any better than they are....they'd be doing it instead of silly diplomatic gestures like this.

Good point. As near as the artcile says, the main thing that changes is them to not comply with inspections of their prisons. Which - who the hell is doing that anyways, and what exactly would you expect Russia to comply with in terms of human rights? Descent into utter madness and total depraved brutality. On balance - you're probably exactly right. Just performative bluster about how they will be independent from western pussy rules. Even if it's literally to celebrate unrestrained torutre of their own citizens, who will cheer this as RUSSIA STRONK update of the day.

Exactly. As long as you can keep fighting and bleeding the russian war machine - that's probably the ONLY shot at a lasting peace.

No doubt. But let's not pretend things are normal. The emperor of the U.S. is owned by Putin, and that's very bad. Things would be very, very different with just about any other person in the world as preisdent. But - even with that massive asset in their column - Russia are still not performing any better on the ground. Trump, as he always does, overplays his hand and attempts to use leverage he doesn't actually possess. The U.S. has very little left to influence Ukraine or any other country short of direct military intervention, which is probably even still too dangerous to consider getting away with. They already tried threatening invasion of allies in Canada and Greenland, moronic sanctions to try and create a global recession that would make countries more interested in their own economic woes than supporting Ukraine. They cut almost all direct support and instead are having Euope buy US arms for Ukraine, which in theory is good for the US Defense industry. At this point, purely European support and increasing arms production sovreignty is probably enough for ukraine to continue resisting for a nearly indefinite period of time. Should it be this way? Of course not, but this is a messy but permanent divorce for ukraine to free itself from a 1,000 year enslavement project from it's brutalist horde neighbor.

Trump is in failing health, their time to extract a favorable peace for his boss in the kremlin is drawing short. If Trump is neutered in the mid-terms, or better yet - dies before then - then things likely get much, much worse much, much faster for Russia. They are the ones talking peace terms, which in itself indicates a degrading position for them considering their initial goal of total national destruction of Ukraine. When first mumbles of peace started a couple months ago, Russia's baseline position was "TOTAL CAPITULATION, DEARMAMENT AND NEUTRALITY". Then it moved to "THE 4 ANNEXED OBLASTS AND DEARMAMMENT!". Then it moved to "GIVE US DONESTK, LUHANSK AND CRIMEA!". In a few weeks, their demands will probably be lower than that. Ukraine has shown the luxury of being able to simply reject absurd Russian demands for excessie terms, and not much else has happened, other than Orange Baby losing interest and going off to pout in the corner.

Ukraine is, of course, suffering, but haven't REALLY been pushed hard yet. Their drone strength and missile campaign against Russian oil and gas is being felt and isn't easily solved. They haven't drafted people under 25 yet. Ukraine's best bet at a lasting peace might well be to keep bleeding the Russian war machine. Russian citizenry has only JUST started to feel the pinch of this idiotic vanity project by their perverted gangster ghoul king.

The article is literally about how JD Vance advocated to have Zelensky replaced. You know, a coup.

But then again - here's you from 15 hours ago: США должны быть разрушенными. Which translates to "The USA must be destroyed".

so - yeah. You'e got your side.